Nebius Group (NasdaqGS:NBIS) Valuation After Multi‑Year Microsoft and Meta AI Deals and Nebius AI Cloud 3.1 Launch

Nebius Group (NasdaqGS:NBIS) has been on traders’ screens after unveiling multi year AI infrastructure deals with Microsoft and Meta, alongside its Nebius AI Cloud 3.1 upgrade. Together, these developments reshape its revenue visibility and competitive positioning.

See our latest analysis for Nebius Group.

The Microsoft and Meta contracts, together with the Nebius AI Cloud 3.1 launch, have reignited interest in Nebius. The stock’s recent 7 day share price return of 20.78% has helped extend a powerful year to date share price rally of 198.69%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 222.64% suggests long term momentum remains firmly intact despite a choppy few months.

If Nebius has you rethinking the AI infrastructure trade, this could be a good moment to scan other high growth tech names through high growth tech and AI stocks.

With the shares already up more than 220% over 12 months but still trading roughly one third below consensus price targets, the key question now is simple: Is Nebius undervalued, or is future growth already fully priced in?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 43% Undervalued

With Nebius last closing at $91.13 versus a narrative fair value near $159, the prevailing view implies substantial upside if growth unfolds as expected.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $74.6 for Nebius Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $90.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $47.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what justifies a valuation far above today’s price, despite subdued headline targets? The narrative leans on explosive growth, rising margins and a future earnings multiple usually reserved for dominant software platforms. Curious which specific revenue and profit assumptions drive that gap between targets and fair value, and how an elevated discount rate still supports it? Dive in to unpack the numbers behind this bold roadmap.

Result: Fair Value of $159.29 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this roadmap could be disrupted if sector consolidation squeezes Nebius out of key multi cloud deployments or if execution stumbles delay large scale capacity rollouts.

Find out about the key risks to this Nebius Group narrative.

Build Your Own Nebius Group Narrative

If this perspective does not quite align with your own view, or you would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in under three minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Nebius Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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