MongoDB (MDB): Valuation Insights Following Strong Q2 Results and Slower FY2026 Growth Outlook

MongoDB (MDB) just reported its second quarter results, showcasing steady growth fueled by AI efforts and the Atlas platform. Despite these achievements, management’s outlook for FY2026 hints at a slowdown in core metrics and earnings growth.

See our latest analysis for MongoDB.

MongoDB's share price has surged nearly 44% over the past three months, showing real momentum as investors respond to upbeat Q2 results and continued optimism around the company’s AI capabilities. While the current share price sits at $318.53, recent gains stand out against a 1-year total shareholder return of 15.6%. This suggests that despite some caution over high valuations and cooling growth projections, the market still sees room for upside in the longer run.

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With shares trading at a premium and growth estimates beginning to temper, investors may wonder if MongoDB is trading at an attractive entry point or if the market has already accounted for all of its upside potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 9.2% Undervalued

MongoDB's most-followed valuation narrative puts its fair value estimate at $350.80, notably above the recent closing price of $318.53. This sets the scene for an ambitious growth outlook, with long-term drivers in play.

Ongoing product innovation, including integrated capabilities like search, vector search, and embeddings, increases platform stickiness and wallet share. This enables deeper penetration of current accounts and higher net revenue retention, which can drive both top-line and operating margin improvement over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of growth rates are behind this valuation? The story revolves around impressive jumps in recurring revenue and projections of significant margin expansion. There’s a bold set of future financial targets that could reshape how investors view MongoDB. See the details shaping this compelling fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $350.80 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks remain. Intensifying competition and potential margin pressure from cloud-native rivals could slow MongoDB’s impressive trajectory if these challenges are not addressed proactively.

Find out about the key risks to this MongoDB narrative.

Another View: Market Multiples Tell a Cautionary Tale

To test the fair value narrative, let's look at how MongoDB stacks up against the market using its price-to-sales ratio. At 11.7x, it is sharply higher than both the US IT industry average of 2.4x and its peers’ 7.1x. Even compared to its fair ratio of 10.6x, MongoDB trades at a premium, raising questions about valuation risk at these levels. Could this mean investors are paying up for growth that may not fully materialize?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own MongoDB Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dive deeper into the numbers, it’s easy to put together your own take in just minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your MongoDB research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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