US$44.65 - That's What Analysts Think JFrog Ltd. (NASDAQ:FROG) Is Worth After These Results

Shareholders of JFrog Ltd. (NASDAQ:FROG) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to US$39.80 following its latest full-year results. The statutory results were mixed overall, with revenues of US$428m in line with analyst forecasts, but losses of US$0.63 per share, some 3.6% larger than the analysts were predicting. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on JFrog after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for JFrog

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from JFrog's 19 analysts is for revenues of US$501.8m in 2025. This would reflect a notable 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$0.73 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$500.0m and losses of US$0.68 per share in 2025. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a pronounced increase to its losses per share forecasts.

Despite expectations of heavier losses next year,the analysts have lifted their price target 21% to US$44.65, perhaps implying these losses are not expected to be recurring over the long term. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values JFrog at US$50.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$33.71. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that JFrog's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 17% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 26% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 12% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that JFrog is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for JFrog going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for JFrog (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.