Dropbox Valuation

Is DBX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DBX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: DBX ($27.99) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($71.69)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DBX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DBX?

Key metric: As DBX is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DBX. This is calculated by dividing DBX's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DBX's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15x
EarningsUS$576.80m
Market CapUS$8.67b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DBX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DBX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average95.9x
INFA Informatica
124.9x26.3%US$8.0b
PEGA Pegasystems
63.9x23.9%US$7.8b
CCCS CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings
167.7x49.6%US$7.8b
ACIW ACI Worldwide
27.1x2.9%US$6.2b
DBX Dropbox
15x-0.1%US$8.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DBX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the peer average (95.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DBX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

11 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AISP Airship AI Holdings
4.3x-27.8%US$66.57m
GRRR Gorilla Technology Group
2.5x-67.4%US$55.50m
NISN Nisun International Enterprise Development Group
2xn/aUS$33.71m
NXTT Next Technology Holding
0.7xn/aUS$16.74m
DBX 15.0xIndustry Avg. 42.4xNo. of Companies11PE020406080100+
11 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DBX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the US Software industry average (42.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DBX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DBX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15x
Fair PE Ratio30.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DBX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DBX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$27.99
US$27.75
-0.9%
13.5%US$33.00US$20.00n/a8
Nov ’25US$25.98
US$26.63
+2.5%
12.4%US$32.00US$20.00n/a8
Oct ’25US$25.05
US$26.63
+6.3%
12.4%US$32.00US$20.00n/a8
Sep ’25US$25.14
US$27.11
+7.8%
12.6%US$32.00US$20.00n/a9
Aug ’25US$23.22
US$27.56
+18.7%
11.2%US$32.00US$22.00n/a9
Jul ’25US$22.53
US$27.56
+22.3%
11.2%US$32.00US$22.00n/a9
Jun ’25US$22.53
US$27.67
+22.8%
10.9%US$32.00US$22.00n/a9
May ’25US$23.49
US$29.37
+25.0%
13.7%US$36.00US$24.00n/a10
Apr ’25US$24.31
US$29.87
+22.9%
12.6%US$36.00US$24.00n/a10
Mar ’25US$24.14
US$30.27
+25.4%
12.0%US$36.00US$24.00n/a10
Feb ’25US$32.27
US$31.55
-2.2%
13.3%US$37.00US$24.00n/a11
Jan ’25US$29.48
US$30.18
+2.4%
12.4%US$36.00US$24.00n/a11
Dec ’24US$28.78
US$29.26
+1.7%
11.4%US$34.00US$24.00n/a11
Nov ’24US$26.16
US$30.17
+15.3%
10.5%US$35.00US$24.00US$25.9811
Oct ’24US$27.23
US$30.17
+10.8%
10.5%US$35.00US$24.00US$25.0511
Sep ’24US$27.86
US$29.21
+4.8%
13.6%US$35.00US$22.00US$25.1412
Aug ’24US$26.75
US$28.04
+4.8%
15.3%US$34.00US$18.00US$23.2212
Jul ’24US$26.67
US$26.92
+0.9%
15.9%US$34.00US$18.00US$22.5312
Jun ’24US$23.19
US$26.62
+14.8%
17.1%US$34.00US$18.00US$22.5311
May ’24US$20.35
US$26.89
+32.1%
16.4%US$34.00US$20.00US$23.4911
Apr ’24US$21.62
US$27.21
+25.9%
15.4%US$34.00US$20.00US$24.3111
Mar ’24US$20.55
US$27.21
+32.4%
15.4%US$34.00US$20.00US$24.1411
Feb ’24US$23.88
US$26.94
+12.8%
15.6%US$34.00US$20.00US$32.2711
Jan ’24US$22.38
US$27.32
+22.1%
16.0%US$34.00US$20.00US$29.4811
Dec ’23US$23.75
US$27.32
+15.0%
16.0%US$34.00US$20.00US$28.7811
Nov ’23US$21.69
US$28.50
+31.4%
13.4%US$35.00US$24.00US$26.169

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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