Dropbox, Inc.

NasdaqGS:DBX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$9.1b

Dropbox Valuation

Is DBX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DBX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$75.99
Fair Value
61.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
8
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: DBX ($29.41) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($75.99)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DBX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DBX?

Key metric: As DBX is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DBX. This is calculated by dividing DBX's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DBX's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.8x
EarningsUS$576.80m
Market CapUS$9.11b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DBX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DBX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average125.3x
PEGA Pegasystems
66.1x20.5%US$8.1b
INFA Informatica
118.6x29.0%US$7.6b
CCCS CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings
149.3x44.1%US$6.9b
ESTC Elastic
167.4x-2.7%US$10.1b
DBX Dropbox
15.8x1.1%US$9.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DBX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the peer average (125.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DBX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
YXT YXT.COM Group Holding
2.2xn/aUS$141.18m
NISN Nisun International Enterprise Development Group
1.6xn/aUS$25.69m
NXTT Next Technology Holding
0.8xn/aUS$18.91m
ULY Urgent.ly
0.07x-13.0%US$6.74m
DBX 15.8xIndustry Avg. 38.8xNo. of Companies10PE020406080100+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DBX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the US Software industry average (38.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DBX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DBX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.8x
Fair PE Ratio30.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DBX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DBX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$29.41
US$28.63
-2.7%
13.5%US$33.00US$20.00n/a8
Jan ’26US$30.04
US$28.25
-6.0%
13.7%US$33.00US$20.00n/a8
Dec ’25US$27.66
US$27.75
+0.3%
13.5%US$33.00US$20.00n/a8
Nov ’25US$25.98
US$26.63
+2.5%
12.4%US$32.00US$20.00n/a8
Oct ’25US$25.05
US$26.63
+6.3%
12.4%US$32.00US$20.00n/a8
Sep ’25US$25.14
US$27.11
+7.8%
12.6%US$32.00US$20.00n/a9
Aug ’25US$23.22
US$27.56
+18.7%
11.2%US$32.00US$22.00n/a9
Jul ’25US$22.53
US$27.56
+22.3%
11.2%US$32.00US$22.00n/a9
Jun ’25US$22.53
US$27.67
+22.8%
10.9%US$32.00US$22.00n/a9
May ’25US$23.49
US$29.37
+25.0%
13.7%US$36.00US$24.00n/a10
Apr ’25US$24.31
US$29.87
+22.9%
12.6%US$36.00US$24.00n/a10
Mar ’25US$24.14
US$30.27
+25.4%
12.0%US$36.00US$24.00n/a10
Feb ’25US$32.27
US$31.55
-2.2%
13.3%US$37.00US$24.00n/a11
Jan ’25US$29.48
US$30.18
+2.4%
12.4%US$36.00US$24.00US$30.0411
Dec ’24US$28.78
US$29.26
+1.7%
11.4%US$34.00US$24.00US$27.6611
Nov ’24US$26.16
US$30.17
+15.3%
10.5%US$35.00US$24.00US$25.9811
Oct ’24US$27.23
US$30.17
+10.8%
10.5%US$35.00US$24.00US$25.0511
Sep ’24US$27.86
US$29.21
+4.8%
13.6%US$35.00US$22.00US$25.1412
Aug ’24US$26.75
US$28.04
+4.8%
15.3%US$34.00US$18.00US$23.2212
Jul ’24US$26.67
US$26.92
+0.9%
15.9%US$34.00US$18.00US$22.5312
Jun ’24US$23.19
US$26.62
+14.8%
17.1%US$34.00US$18.00US$22.5311
May ’24US$20.35
US$26.89
+32.1%
16.4%US$34.00US$20.00US$23.4911
Apr ’24US$21.62
US$27.21
+25.9%
15.4%US$34.00US$20.00US$24.3111
Mar ’24US$20.55
US$27.21
+32.4%
15.4%US$34.00US$20.00US$24.1411
Feb ’24US$23.88
US$26.94
+12.8%
15.6%US$34.00US$20.00US$32.2711
Jan ’24US$22.38
US$27.32
+22.1%
16.0%US$34.00US$20.00US$29.4811
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 8 Analysts
US$28.63
Fair Value
2.7% overvalued intrinsic discount
8
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/12 10:32
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/10 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Dropbox, Inc. is covered by 23 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Edward MagiBerenberg
Michael FunkBofA Global Research