Assessing Cipher Mining (CIFR) Valuation As AI Data Center Deals And HPC Expansion Gain Traction

Cipher Mining (CIFR) is reshaping its business beyond crypto mining, anchored by a US$3b, 10-year Fluidstack partnership for AI focused data centers and a US$2b private placement backing its Black Pearl high performance computing facility.

See our latest analysis for Cipher Mining.

At a share price of US$16.42, Cipher Mining has seen momentum swing around its news flow, with an 11.47% 7 day share price return and a 14.43% 90 day share price return sitting alongside a 1 year total shareholder return of 170.96%. This suggests recent AI and data center announcements and the Black Pearl financing are still feeding through to how investors view its growth potential and risk profile.

If Cipher’s AI and high performance computing push has caught your attention, this could be a good moment to see what else is emerging across 34 AI infrastructure stocks.

With Cipher trading at US$16.42 against an average analyst target of about US$28.23, the market clearly sees upside on paper. However, after a 1-year return of 171%, investors may question whether there is still a genuine opportunity here or if future growth is already priced in.

Most Popular Narrative: 38.5% Undervalued

At US$16.42, the most followed valuation narrative for Cipher Mining points to a fair value of about US$26.68, putting a spotlight on how much future AI and data center economics are embedded in that gap.

The analyst fair value estimate for Cipher Mining has edged down from US$27.25 to about US$26.68 as analysts factor in higher Street price targets tied to the Amazon Web Services AI infrastructure lease, along with emerging views on earnings visibility and valuation multiples in high density data centers.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what has to happen for that higher value to stack up? The narrative leans on rapid revenue expansion, shifting margins and a future earnings multiple that assumes Cipher can evolve well beyond a pure Bitcoin miner. The details behind those assumptions are what really matter.

Result: Fair Value of $26.68 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that upside story can crack if Bitcoin mining economics weaken for an extended stretch or if the huge AI and HPC build outs end up underused.

Find out about the key risks to this Cipher Mining narrative.

Another Angle On Valuation

That 38.5% gap to the US$26.68 fair value looks interesting, but the P/S ratio tells a tougher story. Cipher trades on 31.4x sales, compared with 17.4x for peers and 3.6x for the wider US Software group, while the fair ratio is 7.5x. That kind of premium can either shrink quietly or reset sharply. Which outcome do you think the market is leaning toward?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Cipher Mining Narrative

If this take does not fully match your view, or you prefer to weigh the numbers yourself, you can build a custom thesis in minutes. Start with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Cipher Mining research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Cipher has you thinking more broadly about your portfolio, this can be a sensible time to scan for other opportunities that fit your style and risk tolerance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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