Backblaze, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLZE) Just Released Its First-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

It's been a pretty great week for Backblaze, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLZE) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to US$5.22 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. The results look positive overall; while revenues of US$35m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were 8.9% smaller than expected, with Backblaze losing US$0.17 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Backblaze are now predicting revenues of US$145.2m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a decent 9.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 25% to US$0.64. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$144.4m and US$0.63 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a modest increase to its losses per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Backblaze

The consensus price target held steady at US$12.32, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Backblaze, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$15.90 and the most bearish at US$10.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Backblaze's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 20% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.8% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Backblaze is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$12.32, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Backblaze analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Backblaze (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.