The Aspen Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:AZPN) Annual Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

It's been a pretty great week for Aspen Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:AZPN) shareholders, with its shares surging 14% to US$198 in the week since its latest yearly results. Revenues came in at US$1.0b, in line with forecasts and the company reported a statutory loss of US$1.67 per share, roughly in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Aspen Technology

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Aspen Technology from ten analysts is for revenues of US$1.17b in 2024. If met, it would imply a meaningful 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 66% to US$0.56. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$1.17b and US$0.40 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Aspen Technology even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a sizeable expansion in per-share losses.

The consensus price target held steady at US$193, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aspen Technology at US$255 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$175. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Aspen Technology shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Aspen Technology's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 65% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 12% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Aspen Technology's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aspen Technology going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.