ARB IOT Group Limited's (NASDAQ:ARBB) Shares Bounce 78% But Its Business Still Trails The Industry

The ARB IOT Group Limited (NASDAQ:ARBB) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 78%. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, given about half the companies operating in the United States' IT industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") above 2x, you may still consider ARB IOT Group as an attractive investment with its 1.1x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

See our latest analysis for ARB IOT Group

What Does ARB IOT Group's Recent Performance Look Like?

ARB IOT Group hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. It seems that many are expecting the poor revenue performance to persist, which has repressed the P/S ratio. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on ARB IOT Group.

How Is ARB IOT Group's Revenue Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as low as ARB IOT Group's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 45%. Spectacularly, three year revenue growth has ballooned by several orders of magnitude, despite the drawbacks experienced in the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company, but investors will want to ask why it is now in decline.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with revenue decreasing 17% as estimated by the only analyst watching the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 11% growth, that's a disappointing outcome.

In light of this, it's understandable that ARB IOT Group's P/S would sit below the majority of other companies. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/S has reached a floor yet with revenue going in reverse. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.

The Key Takeaway

ARB IOT Group's stock price has surged recently, but its but its P/S still remains modest. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

As we suspected, our examination of ARB IOT Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking revenue is contributing to its low P/S. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless there's material change, it's hard to envision a situation where the stock price will rise drastically.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for ARB IOT Group you should be aware of, and 2 of them are concerning.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.