At US$228, Is AppFolio, Inc. (NASDAQ:APPF) Worth Looking At Closely?

AppFolio, Inc. (NASDAQ:APPF), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a decent share price growth of 10% on the NASDAQGM over the last few months. Shareholders may appreciate the recent price jump, but the company still has a way to go before reaching its yearly highs again. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Let’s examine AppFolio’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about AppFolio. View them for free.

What Is AppFolio Worth?

AppFolio appears to be expensive according to our price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average. In this instance, we’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. We find that AppFolio’s ratio of 40.6x is above its peer average of 29.25x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Software industry. Furthermore, AppFolio’s share price also seems relatively stable compared to the rest of the market, as indicated by its low beta. If you believe the share price should eventually reach levels around its industry peers, a low beta could suggest it is unlikely to rapidly do so anytime soon, and once it’s there, it may be hard to fall back down into an attractive buying range.

Check out our latest analysis for AppFolio

Can we expect growth from AppFolio?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with an extremely negative double-digit change in profit expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth is certainly not a driver of a buy decision. It seems like high uncertainty is on the cards for AppFolio, at least in the near future.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? If you believe APPF should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. Given the uncertainty from negative growth in the future, this could be the right time to reduce your total portfolio risk. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on APPF for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has climbed past its industry peers, in addition to a risky future outlook. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management. Should the price fall in the future, will you be well-informed enough to buy?

So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. While conducting our analysis, we found that AppFolio has 1 warning sign and it would be unwise to ignore it.

If you are no longer interested in AppFolio, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.