Autodesk (ADSK): Analyzing Valuation After Recent Mixed Returns and Growth Guidance

Autodesk (ADSK) shares have moved slightly up after a period of mixed short-term returns. Investors seem to be weighing the company’s recent performance, including its latest quarterly results and underlying growth figures.

See our latest analysis for Autodesk.

After some ups and downs this year, Autodesk’s share price has settled around $297.18, reflecting a modest year-to-date return. While the short-term move has been muted, its longer-term performance tells a steadier story. A solid three-year total shareholder return of nearly 30% shows momentum has not entirely faded.

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With Autodesk’s shares hovering below many analyst targets and its growth trends remaining solid, the key question is whether the market is underestimating its future potential or if expectations are already fully reflected in the price.

Most Popular Narrative: 18.3% Undervalued

Compared to Autodesk's recent close at $297.18, the leading narrative assigns a notably higher fair value, underscoring high conviction in continued margin growth and operational upside.

Upgrades to full-year and fiscal 2026 guidance, alongside introduced long-term operating margin targets, suggest a clear path to sustained margin expansion and revenue growth through fiscal 2029. Recent updates revealed expectations for substantial operating margin expansion, with some analysts highlighting new FY29 targets that represent more than 900 basis points of improvement from FY24.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what makes this outlook so bullish? The real key is a financial forecast that bets on more margin upside, stronger recurring revenue, and an ambitious future profit multiple. What numbers lead analysts to set the price target far above today’s level? Dive in and you’ll uncover the bold projections that shape this fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $363.71 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent competition from open-source platforms and evolving customer preferences could challenge Autodesk’s pricing power and slow its recurring revenue growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Autodesk narrative.

Build Your Own Autodesk Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers for yourself, you can shape your own Autodesk story in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Autodesk research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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