SkyWater Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:SKYT) Just Reported, And Analysts Assigned A US$11.80 Price Target

The quarterly results for SkyWater Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:SKYT) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It was a respectable set of results; while revenues of US$61m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were 12% smaller than expected, with SkyWater Technology losing US$0.15 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on SkyWater Technology after the latest results.

We've discovered 3 warning signs about SkyWater Technology. View them for free.

After the latest results, the consensus from SkyWater Technology's five analysts is for revenues of US$302.8m in 2025, which would reflect a measurable 6.5% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are forecast to balloon 46% to US$0.26 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$309.0m and losses of US$0.30 per share in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have fallen somewhat, SkyWater Technology'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a cut to the loss per share forecasts in particular.

See our latest analysis for SkyWater Technology

The consensus price target fell 6.3% to US$11.80, with the dip in revenue estimates clearly souring sentiment, despite the forecast reduction in losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on SkyWater Technology, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$15.00 and the most bearish at US$8.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await SkyWater Technology shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the SkyWater Technology's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 8.6% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 23% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 16% per year. It's pretty clear that SkyWater Technology's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on SkyWater Technology. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple SkyWater Technology analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for SkyWater Technology you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.