Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Valuation After India Quantum Contract And Modular Chiplet Architecture Progress

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) has drawn investor attention after securing a US$8.4 million contract to deliver a 108 qubit quantum computer in India by 2026, alongside progress on its modular chiplet based architecture.

See our latest analysis for Rigetti Computing.

Despite the contract win and architecture progress, Rigetti’s recent share price returns have been mixed, with a 1 day share price return of 0.50% and a 90 day share price return showing a 27.81% decline. In contrast, the 1 year total shareholder return of 58.09% and a very large 3 year total shareholder return suggest that longer term momentum has been much stronger.

If this quantum deal has your attention, it can be useful to see what else is moving in the sector and compare Rigetti with 24 quantum computing stocks

With Rigetti reporting US$7.1 million in annual sales, a net loss of US$216.2 million and a share price that still sits at a very large 3 year total return, is this contract driven pullback a potential opportunity, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 34% Undervalued

Rigetti’s last close at $16.22 sits well below a narrative fair value of $24.50, which frames the recent pullback very differently to the market’s reaction.

The trajectory of quantum computing, particularly in the context of Rigetti Computing and the Quantum Benchmark Testing System (QBTS), could witness significant shifts. Trump's emphasis on "America First" policies might lead to increased funding for public-private partnerships and The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)'s R&D works in critical technologies, including quantum computing, as part of national security and technological supremacy initiatives.

Read the complete narrative.

This narrative, according to LongTermer, leans heavily on aggressive revenue expansion, rising profit margins and a rich future earnings multiple to justify that higher fair value. Want to see which assumptions carry the most weight, and how they connect to that $24.50 figure?

Result: Fair Value of $24.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on Rigetti turning US$7.1 million of revenue and a US$216.2 million loss into a sustainable business while competing against larger, well funded quantum peers.

Find out about the key risks to this Rigetti Computing narrative.

Next Steps

With sentiment split between contract excitement and hefty losses, it helps to look at the full picture for yourself and act before the story moves further. To see how the upside potential stacks up against the downside risks, start with the 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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