Is POET Technologies' (POET) Options Surge Reframing Its AI Positioning or Just Short-Covering Noise?

• In recent days, POET Technologies has seen a sharp rise in call option trading and implied volatility, alongside a decline in short interest relative to peers, underscoring changing sentiment toward the stock.
• This shift has been amplified by sector news, including Marvell’s acquisition of POET customer Celestial AI, which many investors view as indirect validation of POET’s role in AI and optical communications.
• With this backdrop of elevated options activity, we’ll explore how the speculation around POET’s AI exposure shapes its investment narrative.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 29 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.

What Is POET Technologies' Investment Narrative?

To own POET Technologies, you have to believe its optical engines and interposer platform can convert today’s tiny revenue base into meaningful AI and data center share before the cash runs thin. The story is built around long-dated partnerships and production orders that mostly start delivering in 2026, against a backdrop of ongoing losses, heavy recent dilution and a high price to book. The latest surge in call options, implied volatility and a higher analyst target, helped by Marvell’s acquisition of Celestial AI, strengthens the near term AI narrative but does not materially change the fundamental catalysts, which still hinge on execution of existing orders, hitting technical milestones with partners and eventually scaling production. If anything, the recent price spike raises the sensitivity to any disappointment on those fronts.

However, the biggest risk for investors may not be the one grabbing headlines today. Our valuation report here indicates POET Technologies may be overvalued.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Eleven fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span from roughly US$0 to over US$17 per share, showing just how far apart investors can be on POET. Set that against a business still unprofitable with high volatility and long lead times to major AI related revenues, and it becomes clear why you might want to examine several of these viewpoints before deciding how the story fits into your portfolio.

Explore 11 other fair value estimates on POET Technologies - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own POET Technologies Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your POET Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 5 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free POET Technologies research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate POET Technologies' overall financial health at a glance.

Interested In Other Possibilities?

Opportunities like this don't last. These are today's most promising picks. Check them out now:

• Uncover the next big thing with financially sound penny stocks that balance risk and reward.
• Trump's oil boom is here - pipelines are primed to profit. Discover the 22 US stocks riding the wave.
• These 13 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump's tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com