Earnings Update: Maxeon Solar Technologies, Ltd. (NASDAQ:MAXN) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts

It's been a mediocre week for Maxeon Solar Technologies, Ltd. (NASDAQ:MAXN) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to US$7.13 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Revenues came in 35% better than analyst models expected, at US$89m, although statutory losses ballooned 1,765% to US$47.00, which is much worse than what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Maxeon Solar Technologies

Taking into account the latest results, Maxeon Solar Technologies' four analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$699.1m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$110 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$783.8m and US$110 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also making no real change to the loss per share numbers.

The average price target fell 8.6% to US$74.67, with the analysts clearly concerned about the weaker revenue outlook and expectation of ongoing losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Maxeon Solar Technologies analyst has a price target of US$200 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's also worth noting that the years of declining revenue look to have come to an end, with the forecast stauing flat to the end of 2025. Historically, Maxeon Solar Technologies' top line has shrunk approximately 0.7% annually over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 20% per year. So it's pretty clear that, although revenues are improving, Maxeon Solar Technologies is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Maxeon Solar Technologies going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 5 warning signs for Maxeon Solar Technologies (of which 3 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.