A Look at First Solar’s Valuation Following Record Q3 Results and U.S. Factory Expansion Plans

First Solar (FSLR) grabbed investor attention with its third-quarter 2025 results, featuring record module shipments and a 79% jump in revenue compared to last year. The company also announced plans to expand U.S. manufacturing.

See our latest analysis for First Solar.

Shares of First Solar have rallied sharply following strong Q3 results and the announcement of a new U.S. factory. The stock experienced a 14.3% one-day share price return and reached an all-time high. This momentum is part of a broader trend, as the company reports a 43% year-to-date share price return and a total shareholder return of 81% over the last three years, indicating that investors are showing increasing confidence in First Solar's growth and leadership amid ongoing industry shifts.

If First Solar’s breakout has you wondering what else is generating buzz, it could be the right moment to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With the stock trading at record highs after stellar results and ambitious expansion plans, the question now is whether First Solar still offers room for upside or if future growth is already priced in by the market.

Most Popular Narrative: 3% Overvalued

With First Solar's fair value from the latest narrative at $259.11, slightly under the recent close of $266.94, voices in the market are split on whether this rally has left further upside on the table. Here is the fundamental driver analysts highlight in their widely followed perspective:

"Recent U.S. policy changes, specifically, strengthened incentives and tighter restrictions against foreign entities of concern (such as China) under the new reconciliation legislation, are boosting First Solar's competitive moat, supporting robust demand for domestically produced modules, and enabling the company to capture higher long-term contracted pricing, directly improving forward revenue visibility and gross margins."

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what underpins this high-stakes valuation? The most critical profit, margin, and earnings assumptions could surprise you. Get the inside track on the exact bullish projections that shape this narrative by reading further.

Result: Fair Value of $259.11 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent supply chain challenges and shifting global trade policy could quickly undermine First Solar’s growth outlook. These factors pose risks to sustained margin expansion.

Find out about the key risks to this First Solar narrative.

Another View: Our DCF Model Tells a Different Story

While the analyst consensus relies on earnings multiples, our SWS DCF model values First Solar shares at $499.93, which is sharply higher than current market prices. This suggests the stock could be undervalued if cash flows materialize as forecast. Which perspective will win out?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own First Solar Narrative

If you have a different take, or would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can craft your own view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding First Solar.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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