Enphase Energy (ENPH): Reassessing Valuation After Expanded Safe Harbor Deal With Solar Financing Partner

Enphase Energy (ENPH) just expanded a safe harbor agreement with a major third party solar financier, a deal expected to bring in about 55 million dollars between late 2025 and early 2026.

See our latest analysis for Enphase Energy.

That backdrop helps explain why the stock’s 1 month share price return of 22.57% looks like a rebound in progress, even though the year to date share price return and 1 year total shareholder return are both still deeply negative. This suggests sentiment is improving, but the longer term damage is not yet repaired.

If this solar deal has you thinking about where else momentum could build, it might be worth exploring high growth tech and AI stocks as another place to spot potential growth stories.

With the stock still down more than 50 percent over the past year despite a modest discount to analyst and intrinsic value estimates, the key question now is whether Enphase is undervalued or whether markets are already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 13.5% Undervalued

With Enphase Energy last closing at 32.96 dollars against a narrative fair value of 38.11 dollars, the valuation case leans toward a recovery story with improving cash flow visibility at its core.

Upcoming launches of next-generation products, including the IQ9 microinverter with gallium nitride technology, the fifth-generation high-density battery, and bidirectional EV chargers, position Enphase to capture new commercial, multi-phase, and EV oriented market segments. This is expected to lead to a structurally lower cost base and improved gross margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest top line expectations can still justify a higher value here? The playbook mixes margin expansion, capital returns, and a premium future earnings multiple. Want to see exactly how those moving parts add up to that upside gap? Read on.

Result: Fair Value of $38.11 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, elevated channel inventory and looming U.S. residential tax credit expirations could undermine demand, compress margins, and delay that recovery story.

Find out about the key risks to this Enphase Energy narrative.

Build Your Own Enphase Energy Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Enphase Energy research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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