A Look at Enphase Energy's Valuation Following Its Third Safe Harbor Deal and Growing U.S. Solar Role

Enphase Energy (ENPH) has signed its third safe harbor agreement since July, paving the way for nearly $68 million in revenue starting next year. The deal supports residential projects with U.S.-made IQ9 microinverters.

See our latest analysis for Enphase Energy.

Enphase Energy’s recent string of partnerships and product launches underscores ambitious efforts to drive sales, but investors remain cautious as momentum has faded. This is reflected in a 30-day share price return of -26% and a one-year total shareholder return of -62.8%. Even with promising new revenue streams on the horizon, the share price now trades around $26.78, far below highs of recent years as the market reassesses risk amid sector headwinds and shifting incentives.

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With shares trading at a steep discount to price targets and new revenue streams set to begin in 2026, the question now is whether Enphase is undervalued or if the market is already factoring in its future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 32% Undervalued

Enphase Energy is currently trading well below the fair value calculated by the most widely followed narrative, with a last close of $26.78 versus a fair value of $39.38. This sharp gap highlights a potential opportunity if the market agrees with the underlying narrative assumptions.

Upcoming launches of next-generation products, including the IQ9 microinverter with gallium nitride technology, the fifth-generation high-density battery, and bidirectional EV chargers, position Enphase to capture new commercial, multi-phase, and EV‑oriented market segments. These initiatives are expected to result in a structurally lower cost base and improved gross margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how this narrative justifies such a premium over today’s price? The explanation lies in ambitious growth and profitability projections across multiple business lines. Find out which financial levers are driving the strongest conviction among analysts. There is more beneath the surface than just resilient demand.

Result: Fair Value of $39.38 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent U.S. residential solar weakness or a prolonged oversupply of microinverters could quickly undermine Enphase's recovery narrative and future earnings trajectory.

Find out about the key risks to this Enphase Energy narrative.

Build Your Own Enphase Energy Narrative

If you think differently about Enphase's outlook, or want to test your own assumptions, you can build your personal narrative in just minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Enphase Energy research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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