Assessing ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML)’s Valuation After a Strong Multi‑Year Share Price Run

ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML) has quietly kept rewarding patient investors, with the stock up around 51% this year and roughly doubling over the past 3 years, even through choppy semiconductor cycles.

See our latest analysis for ASML Holding.

The latest uptick, with a recent 1 month share price return of about 9 percent and year to date share price return above 50 percent, suggests momentum is still building. This is supported by solid demand expectations and easing worries about the semiconductor downcycle, while a near doubling 3 year total shareholder return shows how rewarding staying invested has been.

If ASML’s run has you thinking about where the next big semiconductor winner might come from, it could be worth exploring high growth tech and AI stocks for other potential standouts.

With shares near record highs and trading at a premium to many peers, the key question now is whether ASML still offers upside from here or if the market is already pricing in years of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 5.3% Overvalued

Investingwilly’s narrative implies a fair value slightly below ASML’s last close of $1,056.02, suggesting investors are already paying up for its dominant position.

ASML delivered a solid quarter, with:

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how robust margins, ambitious growth assumptions and a premium future earnings multiple all combine into that valuation call? The full narrative reveals the exact levers driving this price.

Result: Fair Value of $1002.53 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, softer 2026 growth guidance and escalating export controls on China could delay capacity ramps and challenge the long term growth assumptions behind this narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this ASML Holding narrative.

Build Your Own ASML Holding Narrative

If you want to dig into the numbers yourself or challenge this view with your own assumptions, you can build a fresh narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding ASML Holding.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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