ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML): Evaluating Valuation as Shares Approach All-Time Highs

ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML) continues to draw attention as investors track its performance in the broader semiconductor market. The stock has seen substantial gains over the past quarter, which has invited new discussions about its valuation and future trajectory.

See our latest analysis for ASML Holding.

Momentum in ASML Holding has been building fast, with a 41.5% share price return in the past three months and a 46.4% total shareholder return over the last year. While headlines highlight brisk demand across the semiconductor sector, the latest run-up reflects both renewed optimism in chip markets as well as persistent investor confidence in ASML’s long-term technology leadership and profitability.

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With ASML shares trading near all-time highs, investors must weigh whether strong recent results signal more upside ahead or if current prices already reflect the company’s premium positioning and future growth expectations.

Most Popular Narrative: 3% Overvalued

ASML's closing price of $1,033.10 now sits slightly above the latest fair value narrative. This suggests optimism is running just ahead of long-term fundamentals. The stage is set for a deeper dive into how the narrative supports this valuation stance.

ASML repurchased €1.4 billion worth of shares during the quarter and declared an interim dividend of €1.60 per share, reaffirming its commitment to shareholder returns. AI chip demand, advanced node development, and the global push for semiconductor independence all support ASML’s long-term relevance. Even with near-term uncertainty, the structural growth story remains intact.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what powers this high valuation? The fair value hinges on a bullish take: massive future profit margins, robust recurring revenues, and explosive AI chip demand. Ready to learn which numbers fuel this growth engine and how shareholder rewards impact the big picture? Dive in and uncover the drivers behind this premium price tag.

Result: Fair Value of $1,002.53 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, macroeconomic uncertainty and new export restrictions to China remain potential catalysts that could quickly change the current valuation narrative for ASML.

Find out about the key risks to this ASML Holding narrative.

Another View: What do earnings multiples say?

Looking at the company's price-to-earnings ratio of 36.6x, ASML trades below the US Semiconductor industry average of 39.5x and is roughly in line with peers at 36.7x. However, this is a notch above the fair ratio of 35.2x, which implies the stock may still carry an extra layer of optimism. Could this gap signal risk for buyers, or is the market confident for a reason?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own ASML Holding Narrative

If you see the numbers differently, or want a deeper look at the details, you can shape your own perspective in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding ASML Holding.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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