Ambarella Future Growth
Future criteria checks 1/6
Ambarella is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 37.7% and 14.7% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 48.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 13.9% in 3 years.
Key information
37.7%
Earnings growth rate
48.39%
EPS growth rate
| Semiconductor earnings growth | 30.6% |
| Revenue growth rate | 14.7% |
| Future return on equity | 13.88% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 15 Sep 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Sep 14
Ambarella: Physical AI's Hidden Efficiency Winner
Summary Ambarella’s Q2 revenue rose 13.2% YoY to $108.1 million, while Q3 guidance implies approximately 10.5% sequential growth. Management expanded its FY2032 addressable market to $22.9 billion as robotics and edge infrastructure broaden AMBA’s opportunity. Memory scarcity could favor Ambarella’s low-power architecture as customers reconsider GPU-heavy designs because of rising system costs. FY2026 free cash flow reached $58 million, but $98 million of stock compensation raises concerns about underlying shareholder economics. My base case supports $94 per share, while stronger Physical AI commercialization could push valuation toward approximately $127. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Sep 04
AMBA: Edge AI And Auto Expansion Will Drive Long Term Upside
Ambarella's updated analyst price target moves lower from $97.45 to $89.36, as analysts factor in reduced valuation multiples across edge AI peers and the semiconductor sector, along with ongoing uncertainty around near term demand and memory related visibility. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Ambarella points to a split view.
Narrative Update • Jul 07
AMBA: Edge AI And Auto Wins Offset Supply Chain And IoT Risks
Ambarella's analyst-derived fair value has been revised to $80 from $65, as analysts point to rising price targets across the Street. These are supported by expectations for stronger edge AI demand, long-term automotive and IoT opportunities, and increased confidence in the company's computer vision and AI system-on-chip platforms.
Narrative Update • Jun 23
AMBA: Edge AI And Hanwha Agreement Will Support Future Upside
Ambarella's updated analyst price target inches higher by about $1 to $118, as analysts point to growing interest in its AI-focused edge computer vision and ASIC platforms, while also noting mixed views on near term supply chain and end-market risks. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Ambarella highlights a mix of optimism around its edge AI positioning and caution on supply chain and end-market risks.Analysis Article • Jun 17
Ambarella (AMBA) Stock Could Be 32.4% Undervalued After Patent Ruling Sparks Risk Questions
Ambarella (AMBA) stock fell 18.05% after GoPro secured a patent victory against Insta360. This development raised legal and commercial questions for Ambarella’s camera ecosystem partners, even as its latest quarterly earnings results outperformed expectations. See our latest analysis for Ambarella. Over the past year, Ambarella’s total shareholder return of 24.61% contrasts with a share price that is down 12.35% year to date and 16.48% over 30 days. This suggests momentum has cooled recently...Narrative Update • Jun 08
AMBA: Edge AI And Hanwha Deal Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts lifted Ambarella's average price target to about $117 from roughly $115, citing growing interest in its edge AI computer vision and ASIC platforms; long-term agreements with customers such as Hanwha; and steady Auto demand that helped offset softer trends in Consumer IoT. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a mix of optimism and caution around Ambarella, with several bullish analysts lifting valuation targets while others flagging execution risks tied to the supply chain and end demand.Narrative Update • May 25
AMBA: Edge AI And Autonomy Design Wins Will Offset Customer Headwinds
Ambarella's updated analyst price target has stepped down into a range anchored by cuts to $72, $65, and $90, as analysts factor in in-line recent results, new U.S. limits on a key customer, and a mixed balance between the edge AI opportunity and expectations for sales growth versus small to mid cap semiconductor peers. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates cluster around lower price targets, but the tone is not uniformly negative.Narrative Update • May 10
AMBA: Edge AI Design Wins In Autonomy Markets Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have marginally reduced Ambarella's fair value estimate from about $115.00 to approximately $114.90, reflecting lower Street price targets, a higher discount rate, and updated views on edge AI growth, margins, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Ambarella has centered on how quickly edge AI and automotive demand can translate into revenue scale, and how patent or customer specific issues might affect that trajectory.Narrative Update • Apr 20
AMBA: Edge AI Design Wins And Partnerships Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Ambarella, with cuts such as BofA to $72 from $85, Stifel to $90 from $100, and Roth Capital to $65 from $85. This reflects a mixed view that balances the edge AI opportunity against customer specific risks and expectations for sales growth that differ from some small to mid cap semiconductor peers.Narrative Update • Apr 05
AMBA: Edge AI And Automotive Design Wins Will Drive Future Upside
Narrative Update Ambarella's updated analyst price targets, which now cluster in a lower $65 to $90 range, reflect analysts balancing the edge AI opportunity against factors such as slightly slower expected sales growth compared with some semiconductor peers and customer-specific, patent-related risks. Analyst Commentary Recent research reflects a mixed but generally constructive stance on Ambarella, with lower price targets now more tightly grouped and analysts weighing edge AI growth against customer and patent-related risks.Narrative Update • Mar 22
AMBA: Edge AI And Automotive Execution Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their average price targets on Ambarella to a range of roughly $65 to $90, reflecting updated sales and EPS forecasts that highlight opportunities in edge AI and automotive, while also acknowledging customer specific risks and comparatively slower sales growth versus some small to mid cap semiconductor peers. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show a mixed but generally constructive view on Ambarella, with price targets now clustered between roughly $65 and $90.Narrative Update • Mar 07
AMBA: Edge AI Platforms And Developer Tools Will Support Future Profitability
Narrative Update on Ambarella Analysts have reduced their Ambarella fair value estimate from $80 to $65. They point to lower price targets that now cluster around $65 to $90, reflecting modestly softer revenue growth assumptions, a slightly higher discount rate, and tempered future P/E expectations despite ongoing interest in edge AI and automotive opportunities.Narrative Update • Feb 21
AMBA: Edge AI Exhibitions And Developer Tools Will Support Stronger Profitability Ahead
Analysts have kept their $80.00 price target for Ambarella unchanged, citing updated assumptions that now reflect revenue growth of 16.50%, a profit margin of 15.51% and a future P/E of 51.68x, along with a slightly lower discount rate of 10.41%. What's in the News Ambarella plans to exhibit at Embedded World 2026 in Nuremberg, Germany, with a focus on "The Ambarella Edge: From Agentic to Physical AI," featuring live demos across robotics, industrial automation, automotive, edge infrastructure, security and AIoT use cases (Product-Related Announcements).Narrative Update • Feb 07
AMBA: Edge AI Platform And Drone Demand Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts now place Ambarella's fair value at US$115, up from US$105, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate, and a revised future P/E multiple. What's in the News Launched the Ambarella Developer Zone at CES, a centralized hub with optimized models, low code and no code agentic blueprints, and documentation aimed at speeding up edge AI application development on its SoCs using Cooper software (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Feb 06
Ambarella, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMBA) Shares May Have Slumped 26% But Getting In Cheap Is Still Unlikely
Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Ambarella, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AMBA ) share price has dived 26% in the last thirty...Narrative Update • Jan 24
AMBA: Edge AI DevZone Will Drive Multi Year Platform Expansion
Analysts have modestly lifted their price target on Ambarella, with updated assumptions around profit margins and a higher future P/E multiple supporting a new fair value estimate that now stands at roughly US$97.45 per share. What's in the News Ambarella launched its online Ambarella Developer Zone, or DevZone, aimed at helping partners build and deploy edge AI applications faster using optimized models, low code and no code blueprints, and consolidated documentation and tools.Narrative Update • Jan 09
AMBA: Edge AI Platform And DevZone Will Support Multi Year Expansion
Analysts have slightly reduced their fair value estimate for Ambarella from US$98.09 to US$97.45. This revision mainly reflects a modestly higher discount rate and a lower forward P/E assumption, while revenue growth and margin expectations remain broadly unchanged.Narrative Update • Dec 25
AMBA: Drone-Focused Edge AI Platform Will Drive Stronger Profitability Ahead
Narrative Update on Ambarella Analyst Price Target Analysts have raised their price target on Ambarella from 57.94 dollars to 80.00 dollars, citing expectations for slightly slower top line growth, improved profitability, and a higher justified earnings multiple. What's in the News Ambarella reaffirmed its strategic focus on the drone market, emphasizing low power, high-performance SoCs that combine video processing with on-device AI to enable more autonomous, connectivity-independent drone operations (company announcement).Narrative Update • Dec 11
AMBA: Edge AI Demand Will Drive Multi Year Expansion Trajectory Forward
Analysts have modestly increased their price target on Ambarella, raising fair value by approximately 0.00 dollars to about 98.09 dollars per share. This reflects a slightly improved profit margin outlook that offsets a marginally lower future price to earnings multiple.Narrative Update • Nov 27
AMBA: Edge AI Momentum Will Drive Emerging IoT Opportunities Forward
Ambarella's analyst price target has increased from approximately $93.73 to $98.09, as analysts cite strong Q2 results and growing momentum in the company's IoT and Edge AI businesses. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst activity has reflected growing confidence in Ambarella's valuation, supported by robust Q2 results and momentum across IoT and Edge AI applications.Narrative Update • Nov 13
AMBA: Momentum in Edge AI and IoT Will Face Ongoing Market Risks
Ambarella's analyst price target has risen sharply, with several firms lifting their outlooks by $10 to $30 per share. Analysts cite strong Q2 results, expanding IoT applications, and momentum in Edge AI design wins as key growth drivers.Analysis Article • Nov 11
Ambarella, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AMBA) 30% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues
Despite an already strong run, Ambarella, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AMBA ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 30% in the...Narrative Update • Oct 30
Edge AI Momentum and IoT Diversification Will Shape Future Performance
Ambarella's analyst price target has seen a significant upward revision, rising by as much as $37 to $100 per share. Analysts cite robust Q2 performance, design wins in IoT and Edge AI, and an improved revenue outlook as key drivers of optimism.Narrative Update • Oct 15
Expanding Edge AI Markets Will Unlock Future Opportunities
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Ambarella, increasing the price target from $90.05 to $93.73. They cite solid earnings, growing momentum in edge AI markets, and diverse new IoT design wins as key drivers.Analysis Article • Aug 31
Ambarella, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AMBA) 29% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up
Ambarella, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AMBA ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 29% gain in the last month alone...Narrative Update • Aug 30
Leveraging Edge AI Processing With DeepSeek-R1 Will Unlock New Applications
Ambarella’s analyst price target has been notably raised to $90.05, driven by stronger-than-expected Q2 results and momentum in Edge AI and IoT applications outside automotive, despite continued sector softness. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite Ambarella's strong Q2 performance, with revenue and earnings surpassing expectations and exceeding prior guidance.Analysis Article • Jul 14
There's Reason For Concern Over Ambarella, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AMBA) Massive 32% Price Jump
Despite an already strong run, Ambarella, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AMBA ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 32% in the...Analysis Article • Jun 25
Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Ambarella, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMBA)?
Ambarella, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AMBA ), is not the largest company out there, but it led the NASDAQGS gainers with a...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/31/2029 | 593 | -40 | 95 | 122 | 3 |
| 1/31/2028 | 500 | -52 | 54 | 75 | 13 |
| 1/31/2027 | 441 | -50 | -1 | 28 | 12 |
| 7/31/2026 | 418 | -56 | 10 | 27 | N/A |
| 4/30/2026 | 405 | -70 | 18 | 33 | N/A |
| 1/31/2026 | 391 | -76 | 58 | 74 | N/A |
| 10/31/2025 | 374 | -80 | 64 | 80 | N/A |
| 7/31/2025 | 348 | -89 | 37 | 52 | N/A |
| 4/30/2025 | 316 | -104 | 50 | 64 | N/A |
| 1/31/2025 | 285 | -117 | 23 | 34 | N/A |
| 10/31/2024 | 252 | -157 | -4 | 4 | N/A |
| 7/31/2024 | 220 | -175 | -2 | 6 | N/A |
| 4/30/2024 | 219 | -171 | -29 | -18 | N/A |
| 1/31/2024 | 226 | -169 | 7 | 19 | N/A |
| 10/31/2023 | 258 | -120 | 16 | 28 | N/A |
| 7/31/2023 | 291 | -98 | 12 | 26 | N/A |
| 4/30/2023 | 309 | -90 | 20 | 33 | N/A |
| 1/31/2023 | 338 | -65 | 29 | 44 | N/A |
| 10/31/2022 | 345 | -63 | 43 | 60 | N/A |
| 7/31/2022 | 354 | -43 | 48 | 62 | N/A |
| 4/30/2022 | 352 | -26 | 64 | 77 | N/A |
| 1/31/2022 | 332 | -26 | 29 | 39 | N/A |
| 10/31/2021 | 304 | -30 | 21 | 31 | N/A |
| 7/31/2021 | 268 | -48 | 27 | 35 | N/A |
| 4/30/2021 | 238 | -55 | 12 | 19 | N/A |
| 1/31/2021 | 223 | -60 | 26 | 31 | N/A |
| 10/31/2020 | 218 | -60 | 21 | 22 | N/A |
| 7/31/2020 | 230 | -48 | 30 | 31 | N/A |
| 4/30/2020 | 236 | -43 | N/A | 42 | N/A |
| 1/31/2020 | 229 | -45 | N/A | 39 | N/A |
| 10/31/2019 | 223 | -36 | N/A | 49 | N/A |
| 7/31/2019 | 212 | -41 | N/A | 31 | N/A |
| 4/30/2019 | 218 | -38 | N/A | 30 | N/A |
| 1/31/2019 | 228 | -30 | N/A | 24 | N/A |
| 10/31/2018 | 247 | -25 | N/A | 36 | N/A |
| 7/31/2018 | 279 | -4 | N/A | 59 | N/A |
| 4/30/2018 | 288 | 6 | N/A | 62 | N/A |
| 1/31/2018 | 295 | 19 | N/A | 85 | N/A |
| 10/31/2017 | 312 | 36 | N/A | 93 | N/A |
| 7/31/2017 | 324 | 53 | N/A | 109 | N/A |
| 4/30/2017 | 317 | 59 | N/A | 121 | N/A |
| 1/31/2017 | 310 | 58 | N/A | 113 | N/A |
| 10/31/2016 | 291 | 45 | N/A | 111 | N/A |
| 7/31/2016 | 283 | 45 | N/A | 104 | N/A |
| 4/30/2016 | 303 | 59 | N/A | 114 | N/A |
| 1/31/2016 | 316 | 77 | N/A | 124 | N/A |
| 10/31/2015 | 313 | 89 | N/A | 110 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: AMBA is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Earnings vs Market: AMBA is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
High Growth Earnings: AMBA is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: AMBA's revenue (14.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: AMBA's revenue (14.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: AMBA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.9%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/17 04:06 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/17 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/07/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/01/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Ambarella, Inc. is covered by 22 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Alexi Unger | Arete Research Services LLP |
| David Williams | Ascendiant Capital Markets LLC |
| Tristan Gerra | Baird |