Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd.

OTCPK:NCLT.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$11.8b

Nitori Holdings Valuation

Is NCLT.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NCLT.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$55.69
Fair Value
93.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: NCLT.F ($107.57) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($55.69)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NCLT.F is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NCLT.F?

Key metric: As NCLT.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NCLT.F. This is calculated by dividing NCLT.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NCLT.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio21.9x
EarningsJP¥76.89b
Market CapJP¥1.69t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NCLT.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NCLT.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.1x
WSM Williams-Sonoma
17.7x2.32%US$19.4b
RH RH
47.8x43.42%US$3.5b
ARHS Arhaus
19.7x12.46%US$1.2b
PAG Penske Automotive Group
11.3x1.74%US$10.7b
NCLT.F Nitori Holdings
21.9x8.46%US$1.7t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NCLT.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.9x) compared to the peer average (24.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NCLT.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TLF Tandy Leather Factory
1.9xn/aUS$24.98m
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
2.4xn/aUS$16.38m
SSOK Sunstock
1.3xn/aUS$918.28k
COSG Cosmos Group Holdings
0.05xn/aUS$488.60k
NCLT.F 21.9xIndustry Avg. 16.0xNo. of Companies16PE01224364860+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NCLT.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.9x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NCLT.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NCLT.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio21.9x
Fair PE Ratio18.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NCLT.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NCLT.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$107.57
US$122.88
+14.23%
7.83%US$138.08US$110.46n/a9
May ’26US$118.12
US$127.37
+7.83%
6.14%US$140.67US$116.05n/a9
Apr ’26US$94.58
US$124.56
+31.70%
5.19%US$132.03US$115.53n/a9
Mar ’26US$100.20
US$124.56
+24.32%
5.19%US$132.03US$115.53n/a9
Feb ’26US$114.50
US$126.08
+10.12%
4.83%US$135.85US$116.54n/a9
Jan ’26US$114.11
US$125.54
+10.02%
6.32%US$142.45US$114.56n/a10
Dec ’25US$124.48
US$131.14
+5.35%
6.18%US$147.90US$118.94n/a10
Nov ’25US$118.81
US$134.68
+13.35%
6.24%US$149.11US$119.92n/a10
Oct ’25US$144.49
US$136.89
-5.26%
6.10%US$154.34US$126.96n/a10
Sep ’25US$144.53
US$133.98
-7.30%
6.50%US$151.84US$124.80n/a10
Aug ’25US$122.54
US$121.62
-0.76%
8.03%US$138.52US$110.18n/a10
Jul ’25US$107.61
US$129.87
+20.68%
9.30%US$148.76US$114.43n/a10
Jun ’25US$107.21
US$133.02
+24.07%
9.05%US$149.16US$114.74n/a10
May ’25US$127.88
US$144.53
+13.02%
9.68%US$172.66US$128.51US$118.1210
Apr ’25US$154.72
US$139.11
-10.09%
11.28%US$172.72US$121.96US$94.5810
Mar ’25US$151.40
US$130.81
-13.60%
11.31%US$159.28US$109.50US$100.2010
Feb ’25US$134.93
US$121.58
-9.90%
4.97%US$131.58US$111.34US$114.5010
Jan ’25US$132.10
US$123.30
-6.66%
5.68%US$137.09US$112.69US$114.1110
Dec ’24US$114.10
US$117.31
+2.82%
5.91%US$130.46US$107.25US$124.4811
Nov ’24US$106.76
US$122.56
+14.80%
8.02%US$147.59US$112.03US$118.8111
Oct ’24US$112.00
US$125.32
+11.89%
7.66%US$148.47US$112.70US$144.4910
Sep ’24US$113.03
US$127.83
+13.09%
7.26%US$150.45US$114.21US$144.5312
Aug ’24US$121.90
US$133.36
+9.40%
7.21%US$156.06US$116.34US$122.5412
Jul ’24US$112.40
US$130.64
+16.22%
10.21%US$153.01US$107.80US$107.6112
Jun ’24US$124.17
US$134.47
+8.30%
10.09%US$158.63US$111.76US$107.2112
May ’24US$128.00
US$129.65
+1.29%
11.20%US$157.08US$104.72US$127.8812
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 9 Analysts
US$128.28
Fair Value
16.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/25 18:46
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/23 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd. is covered by 23 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Maki ShinozakiBarclays
Arashi NishizawaBofA Global Research
Yingqiu ZhangCitigroup Inc