TJX Companies Future Growth
Future criteria checks 2/6
TJX Companies is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 6.2% and 5.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 7.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 51.4% in 3 years.
Key information
6.2%
Earnings growth rate
7.18%
EPS growth rate
| Specialty Retail earnings growth | 9.8% |
| Revenue growth rate | 5.6% |
| Future return on equity | 51.39% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 27 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 01
TJX: Off Price Q1 Execution And FY27 Guidance Will Drive Upside
Narrative Update The updated analyst price target for TJX Companies has moved higher from $171.78 to $177.63 as analysts point to a series of Q1 earnings beats, broad-based comp and transaction growth across banners, and ongoing optimism around the off price model and margin performance. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on TJX Companies has tilted clearly positive, with multiple firms lifting their price targets after the Q1 report.Seeking Alpha • May 20
TJX Companies: Limited Upside Despite A Beat-And-Raise Q1
Summary TJX Companies delivered strong Q1 results, beating EPS and revenue expectations and raising FY 2027 guidance. Despite robust fundamentals and industry leadership, TJX trades at a premium ~30x P/E, leaving little margin for error. I maintain a "Hold" rating, citing valuation risk, slowing momentum, and potential consumer headwinds this summer. Technical signals are mixed; $145 is key support, with resistance at $150–$160 and a possible topping pattern forming. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 03
TJX: Off Price Model And Capital Returns Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have nudged TJX Companies' average price target higher into the mid to high $170s, citing stronger than expected Q4 results, resilient traffic and ticket trends, and what they view as conservative guidance that leaves room for upside. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts have been lifting their price targets on TJX Companies following the latest Q4 report, pointing to solid execution, resilient demand and what they see as achievable guidance.Narrative Update • Apr 19
TJX: Off Price Model And Shareholder Returns Will Support Future Upside
Narrative Update The blended Street price target for TJX has moved higher into a $172 to $185 range, as analysts cite strong recent quarterly results, resilient off-price fundamentals, and updated long-term guidance as support for revising their models. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show a cluster of bullish analysts revising their TJX valuation frameworks higher, with most new targets falling into the low to mid US$170s and several stretching into the low US$180s.Narrative Update • Apr 05
TJX: Off Price Execution And FY27 Guidance Will Shape Balanced Risk Profile
Analysts have inched up their average price targets on TJX Companies into a $170 to $185 range, citing strong recent quarterly results, resilient traffic and margins, and an outlook that they see as leaving room for further execution upside. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a broadly positive tone on TJX, with most firms lifting price targets into the mid to high $170s range and a few moving into the low $180s.Narrative Update • Mar 22
TJX: Off Price Execution And FY27 Guidance Will Frame Balanced Upside Risk
Analysts have nudged TJX Companies' average price target higher into the low $170s, reflecting updated models after strong Q4 results, resilient margins, and guidance that several firms describe as leaving room for upside. Analyst Commentary Bullish and cautious voices are both active around TJX, but the current wave of research is skewed toward higher price targets and confidence in execution following recent results.Narrative Update • Mar 07
TJX: Off Price Execution And FY27 Guidance Will Shape Multi Year Outlook
The analyst price target for TJX Companies has moved higher, reflecting a fair value increase from $164.11 to $171.78. Analysts point to strong recent results, updated models, and sustained resilience in off-price retail as key supports for this change.Narrative Update • Feb 21
TJX: Off Price Exposure To Higher Income Shoppers Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for TJX Companies to $193 from $181, citing higher Street price targets and renewed optimism around off-price retail, as firms highlight resilient discretionary spending, solid top-line trends tied to easier weather comparisons and tax refunds, and exposure to higher income consumers. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are pointing to a more constructive view on TJX Companies, with higher fair value estimates and price targets reflecting confidence in the off price model and the company’s ability to execute in a mixed retail backdrop.
Narrative Update • Feb 07
TJX: Elevated Off Price Optimism May Constrain Future Share Return Potential
Analysts have nudged their price expectations for TJX higher, reflected in our fair value estimate rising from US$124.91 to US$129.14. They cite recent price target increases across the Street that point to confidence in the company's off price positioning, ongoing top line trends, Q3 performance and updated guidance.Narrative Update • Jan 24
TJX: Elevated Expectations Around Off Price Expansion May Limit Future Upside
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for TJX Companies higher to about $124.91 from $117.46, citing recent price target increases across the Street that reflect confidence in the off price model, solid Q3 results, and positive views on consumer spending and market share opportunities into 2026. Analyst Commentary Street research on TJX remains largely constructive, with a cluster of higher price targets following the company’s Q3 report and updated guidance.Narrative Update • Jan 09
TJX: Off Price Execution And FY26 Guidance Will Support Multi Year Outlook
Analysts nudged their price target for TJX higher to about $164 from roughly $160, citing supportive Street research that highlights stronger Q3 results, updated FY26 guidance, and broad confidence in off-price retail trends and TJX's multi-banner momentum. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a generally constructive stance on TJX, with multiple firms lifting valuation targets after the Q3 report and updated FY26 guidance.Narrative Update • Dec 26
TJX: Q3 Execution And Market Share Gains Will Support Multi Year Outlook
Analysts modestly lifted their price target on TJX Companies to approximately $160 from about $159, citing strong Q3 results, raised multi year guidance, broad based sales momentum across segments, and continued market share opportunities in the off price space. Analyst Commentary Analyst sentiment around TJX remains broadly constructive following the latest Q3 report, with multiple firms lifting price targets across a wide range, from the mid $140s to the low $180s, and reiterating positive ratings on the shares.Narrative Update • Dec 12
TJX Strong Q3 Execution Will Drive Market Share Gains Ahead
TJX Companies fair value estimate has been raised from $164 to $181, as analysts point to strong Q3 results, raised long term guidance, resilient value positioning across categories, and continued market share and EPS growth potential supported by the off price sector backdrop. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts broadly highlight TJX's strong Q3 performance, improved long term guidance, and durable value proposition as key drivers behind a wave of upward price target revisions.Narrative Update • Nov 27
TJX: Momentum From Q3 Gains And Market Share Advances Will Support Outlook
The fair value estimate for TJX Companies has been raised by analysts from approximately $151.84 to $159.16 per share. This adjustment reflects robust Q3 performance, raised guidance, and ongoing strength across key business segments.Narrative Update • Nov 11
TJX: Strong Operating Margins And Execution Will Sustain Measured Performance Ahead
Analysts have raised their price target for TJX Companies slightly, from approximately $151.37 to $151.84. They cite strong business performance, robust operating margins, and a solid outlook supported by recent earnings results.Narrative Update • Oct 28
Raised Guidance And Solid Performance Will Drive Further Market Share Gains
The analyst price target for TJX Companies has increased slightly from $149.44 to $151.37 per share. Analysts point to the company’s strong recent results, raised guidance, and sustained profitability compared to competitors.Narrative Update • Aug 27
Global Store Base Will Reach 7,000, Increasing Customer Access
The analyst price target for TJX Companies has been raised to $149.44, reflecting strong Q2 outperformance, raised guidance, and sustained traffic and market share gains, though upside may be tempered by elevated valuation. Analyst Commentary Strong Q2 performance with both revenue and earnings exceeding expectations, fueled by healthy traffic growth across all banners.Analysis Article • Aug 22
The TJX Companies, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Investors in The TJX Companies, Inc. ( NYSE:TJX ) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.4% to close at US$138 following...Analysis Article • Jul 31
TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) Could Become A Multi-Bagger
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? In a...Analysis Article • Jul 16
When Should You Buy The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TJX)?
Let's talk about the popular The TJX Companies, Inc. ( NYSE:TJX ). The company's shares received a lot of attention...Analysis Article • Jun 27
Earnings Not Telling The Story For The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TJX)
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 18x, you may...New Narrative • Apr 08
HomeGoods And Sierra Expansion Will Shape Future Markets
Global expansion into high-potential markets like Canada, Europe, and new regions is set to drive significant sales growth and increased market share.Seeking Alpha • Mar 27
The TJX Companies: Priced For Perfection (Rating Downgrade)
Summary TJX is executing well with solid same-store sales growth and effective management, but macroeconomic conditions have worsened, posing risks to FY25 earnings. Elevated inventory levels and potential margin contraction could pressure TJX's financial performance amid weakening consumer spending and increased fixed costs. TJX's current premium valuation compared to peers like Burlington and Ross is unsustainable, suggesting significant downside risk if macro conditions don't improve. I recommend a sell rating due to heightened macro risks, inventory concerns, and the stock being priced for perfection, despite strong management execution. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 03
The TJX Companies: Capital Efficiency And Defensive Earnings Come At A Price
Summary The TJX Companies constantly has grown its leading off-price retail store network with great capital efficiency. TJX provides very defensive earnings as the business is weakly affected by changes in industry-wide apparel sales, proven by recent years' sales data and the 2008 financial crisis performance. The capital efficiency and defensive earnings come at a high price tag, and I estimate a fair value of $116 for TJX stock. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 26
The TJX Companies: I Am Waiting For TJX To Accelerate Its Growth
Summary I reiterate a hold rating for TJX due to its current tricky valuation multiple and await evidence of accelerated growth before upgrading. The TJX Companies reported solid Q3 performance with 6% revenue growth, driven by strong same-store sales growth across divisions and improved gross margins. Management's international expansion strategy, including ventures in Mexico, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Spain, shows promise but needs successful execution for sustained premium valuation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/31/2029 | 72,824 | 6,864 | 5,850 | 8,571 | 6 |
| 1/31/2028 | 67,887 | 6,299 | 5,264 | 7,839 | 20 |
| 1/31/2027 | 64,135 | 5,795 | 5,017 | 7,664 | 20 |
| 5/2/2026 | 61,584 | 5,790 | 5,477 | 7,599 | N/A |
| 1/31/2026 | 60,372 | 5,494 | 4,917 | 6,874 | N/A |
| 11/1/2025 | 58,979 | 5,119 | 4,418 | 6,421 | N/A |
| 8/2/2025 | 57,925 | 4,974 | 4,041 | 5,935 | N/A |
| 5/3/2025 | 56,992 | 4,830 | 3,777 | 5,773 | N/A |
| 2/1/2025 | 56,360 | 4,864 | 4,198 | 6,116 | N/A |
| 11/2/2024 | 56,421 | 4,869 | 4,366 | 6,212 | N/A |
| 8/3/2024 | 55,623 | 4,763 | 4,453 | 6,337 | N/A |
| 5/4/2024 | 54,913 | 4,653 | 4,269 | 6,049 | N/A |
| 2/3/2024 | 54,217 | 4,474 | 4,335 | 6,057 | N/A |
| 10/28/2023 | 52,326 | 4,109 | 4,645 | 6,282 | N/A |
| 7/29/2023 | 51,228 | 3,981 | 4,580 | 6,164 | N/A |
| 4/29/2023 | 50,313 | 3,802 | 3,959 | 5,463 | N/A |
| 1/28/2023 | 49,936 | 3,498 | 2,627 | 4,084 | N/A |
| 10/29/2022 | 49,270 | 3,400 | 740 | 2,169 | N/A |
| 7/30/2022 | 49,635 | 3,360 | 823 | 2,116 | N/A |
| 4/30/2022 | 49,869 | 3,336 | 1,722 | 2,856 | N/A |
| 1/29/2022 | 48,550 | 3,283 | 2,012 | 3,057 | N/A |
| 10/30/2021 | 45,639 | 2,668 | 1,382 | 2,232 | N/A |
| 7/31/2021 | 43,224 | 2,512 | 4,609 | 5,312 | N/A |
| 5/1/2021 | 37,815 | 1,512 | 6,707 | 7,290 | N/A |
| 1/30/2021 | 32,137 | 90 | 3,994 | 4,562 | N/A |
| 10/31/2020 | 33,400 | 750 | 5,806 | 6,470 | N/A |
| 8/1/2020 | 33,734 | 711 | 2,409 | 3,364 | N/A |
| 5/2/2020 | 36,848 | 1,685 | -360 | 757 | N/A |
| 2/1/2020 | 41,717 | 3,272 | N/A | 4,067 | N/A |
| 11/2/2019 | 40,638 | 3,129 | N/A | 3,484 | N/A |
| 8/3/2019 | 40,012 | 3,063 | N/A | 3,427 | N/A |
| 5/4/2019 | 39,562 | 3,044 | N/A | 3,513 | N/A |
| 2/2/2019 | 38,973 | 3,060 | N/A | 4,088 | N/A |
| 11/3/2018 | 38,806 | 3,096 | N/A | 3,574 | N/A |
| 8/4/2018 | 37,743 | 2,975 | N/A | 3,483 | N/A |
| 5/5/2018 | 36,769 | 2,788 | N/A | 3,302 | N/A |
| 2/3/2018 | 35,865 | 2,608 | N/A | 3,026 | N/A |
| 10/28/2017 | 34,372 | 2,409 | N/A | 3,444 | N/A |
| 7/29/2017 | 33,901 | 2,317 | N/A | 3,546 | N/A |
| 4/29/2017 | 33,425 | 2,326 | N/A | 3,630 | N/A |
| 1/28/2017 | 33,184 | 2,298 | N/A | 3,627 | N/A |
| 10/29/2016 | 32,678 | 2,287 | N/A | 3,393 | N/A |
| 7/30/2016 | 32,140 | 2,324 | N/A | 3,192 | N/A |
| 4/30/2016 | 31,622 | 2,311 | N/A | 2,935 | N/A |
| 1/30/2016 | 30,945 | 2,278 | N/A | 2,957 | N/A |
| 10/31/2015 | 30,287 | 2,259 | N/A | 2,839 | N/A |
| 8/1/2015 | 29,899 | 2,267 | N/A | 2,849 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: TJX's forecast earnings growth (6.2% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: TJX's earnings (6.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (17.1% per year).
High Growth Earnings: TJX's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: TJX's revenue (5.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.9% per year).
High Growth Revenue: TJX's revenue (5.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: TJX's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (51.4%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/05 10:38 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/05 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/05/02 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/01/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
The TJX Companies, Inc. is covered by 45 analysts. 20 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Christopher Graja | Argus Research Company |
| Mark Altschwager | Baird |
| Robert Drbul | Barclays |