The TJX Companies, Inc.

NYSE:TJX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$140.0b

TJX Companies Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

TJX Companies is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 6.1% and 6.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 7.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 57.4% in 3 years.

Key information

6.1%

Earnings growth rate

7.21%

EPS growth rate

Specialty Retail earnings growth8.6%
Revenue growth rate6.1%
Future return on equity57.40%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated07 Sep 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Sep 19

TJX Companies: Weakening Comps And Rich Multiples In Shaky Macro (Downgrade)

Summary TJX Companies faces mounting headwinds, including weak sales growth and decelerating comps, especially in its core MarMaxx segment. I downgrade TJX to a sell as rich valuation multiples are unjustified amid low earnings growth and macroeconomic pressures. Accelerated store expansion to 4% annual growth raises concerns about capital outlay and potential cannibalization without addressing weak comps. Q2 results revealed disappointing MarMaxx comps and guidance for further slowdown, while executive compensation may benefit from non-operational earnings boosts. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Sep 03

TJX: Marmaxx Weakness And Off Price Strength Likely Keep Shares Range Bound

The updated analyst price target for TJX Companies now sits at $136. This reflects a lower assumed fair value and P/E multiple as analysts weigh Marmaxx softness and competitive pressure against still solid revenue growth expectations and only slightly adjusted profit margin assumptions.
Narrative Update • Aug 20

TJX: Margin Resilience And FY27 Earnings Outlook Will Drive Future Upside

The fair value estimate for TJX Companies has moved modestly lower to $172.80 as analysts factor in weaker Marmaxx comps and tougher competitive pressures, partly offset by resilient margins and a still supportive long term P/E outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on TJX Companies points to a mixed but detailed picture, with bullish analysts focusing on the long term earnings profile and portfolio strength while bearish analysts focus on Marmaxx comps, competitive pressure, and near term execution risk.
Narrative Update • Jun 29

TJX: Strong Off Price Execution And Expansion May Restrain Further Upside

The analyst fair value estimate for TJX Companies has been raised from $129.14 to $146.93, reflecting updated Street price targets clustered in the $160 to $197 range as analysts point to Q1 earnings outperformance, broad-based comp strength and solid margin trends across banners. Analyst Commentary Street research on TJX Companies has turned more constructive on Q1 execution, with multiple firms lifting price targets into the US$160 to US$197 range after the earnings beat, broad-based comp performance and margin strength across banners.
Narrative Update • Jun 15

TJX: Off Price Model And Capital Returns Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts lifted the TJX Companies fair value estimate to $197 from $193 as higher Street price targets, Q1 earnings strength, and expectations for steady margins and revenue growth support a slightly higher assumed P/E multiple and a modestly lower discount rate. Analyst Commentary Street research around the Q1 report points to broadly constructive sentiment on TJX, with a cluster of higher price targets following the earnings release.
Narrative Update • Jun 01

TJX: Off Price Q1 Execution And FY27 Guidance Will Drive Upside

Narrative Update The updated analyst price target for TJX Companies has moved higher from $171.78 to $177.63 as analysts point to a series of Q1 earnings beats, broad-based comp and transaction growth across banners, and ongoing optimism around the off price model and margin performance. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on TJX Companies has tilted clearly positive, with multiple firms lifting their price targets after the Q1 report.
Narrative Update • May 03

TJX: Off Price Model And Capital Returns Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have nudged TJX Companies' average price target higher into the mid to high $170s, citing stronger than expected Q4 results, resilient traffic and ticket trends, and what they view as conservative guidance that leaves room for upside. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts have been lifting their price targets on TJX Companies following the latest Q4 report, pointing to solid execution, resilient demand and what they see as achievable guidance.
Narrative Update • Apr 19

TJX: Off Price Model And Shareholder Returns Will Support Future Upside

Narrative Update The blended Street price target for TJX has moved higher into a $172 to $185 range, as analysts cite strong recent quarterly results, resilient off-price fundamentals, and updated long-term guidance as support for revising their models. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show a cluster of bullish analysts revising their TJX valuation frameworks higher, with most new targets falling into the low to mid US$170s and several stretching into the low US$180s.
Narrative Update • Apr 05

TJX: Off Price Execution And FY27 Guidance Will Shape Balanced Risk Profile

Analysts have inched up their average price targets on TJX Companies into a $170 to $185 range, citing strong recent quarterly results, resilient traffic and margins, and an outlook that they see as leaving room for further execution upside. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a broadly positive tone on TJX, with most firms lifting price targets into the mid to high $170s range and a few moving into the low $180s.
Narrative Update • Mar 22

TJX: Off Price Execution And FY27 Guidance Will Frame Balanced Upside Risk

Analysts have nudged TJX Companies' average price target higher into the low $170s, reflecting updated models after strong Q4 results, resilient margins, and guidance that several firms describe as leaving room for upside. Analyst Commentary Bullish and cautious voices are both active around TJX, but the current wave of research is skewed toward higher price targets and confidence in execution following recent results.
Narrative Update • Mar 07

TJX: Off Price Execution And FY27 Guidance Will Shape Multi Year Outlook

The analyst price target for TJX Companies has moved higher, reflecting a fair value increase from $164.11 to $171.78. Analysts point to strong recent results, updated models, and sustained resilience in off-price retail as key supports for this change.
Narrative Update • Feb 21

TJX: Off Price Exposure To Higher Income Shoppers Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for TJX Companies to $193 from $181, citing higher Street price targets and renewed optimism around off-price retail, as firms highlight resilient discretionary spending, solid top-line trends tied to easier weather comparisons and tax refunds, and exposure to higher income consumers. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are pointing to a more constructive view on TJX Companies, with higher fair value estimates and price targets reflecting confidence in the off price model and the company’s ability to execute in a mixed retail backdrop.
Narrative Update • Feb 07

TJX: Elevated Off Price Optimism May Constrain Future Share Return Potential

Analysts have nudged their price expectations for TJX higher, reflected in our fair value estimate rising from US$124.91 to US$129.14. They cite recent price target increases across the Street that point to confidence in the company's off price positioning, ongoing top line trends, Q3 performance and updated guidance.
Narrative Update • Jan 24

TJX: Elevated Expectations Around Off Price Expansion May Limit Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for TJX Companies higher to about $124.91 from $117.46, citing recent price target increases across the Street that reflect confidence in the off price model, solid Q3 results, and positive views on consumer spending and market share opportunities into 2026. Analyst Commentary Street research on TJX remains largely constructive, with a cluster of higher price targets following the company’s Q3 report and updated guidance.
Narrative Update • Jan 09

TJX: Off Price Execution And FY26 Guidance Will Support Multi Year Outlook

Analysts nudged their price target for TJX higher to about $164 from roughly $160, citing supportive Street research that highlights stronger Q3 results, updated FY26 guidance, and broad confidence in off-price retail trends and TJX's multi-banner momentum. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a generally constructive stance on TJX, with multiple firms lifting valuation targets after the Q3 report and updated FY26 guidance.
Narrative Update • Dec 26

TJX: Q3 Execution And Market Share Gains Will Support Multi Year Outlook

Analysts modestly lifted their price target on TJX Companies to approximately $160 from about $159, citing strong Q3 results, raised multi year guidance, broad based sales momentum across segments, and continued market share opportunities in the off price space. Analyst Commentary Analyst sentiment around TJX remains broadly constructive following the latest Q3 report, with multiple firms lifting price targets across a wide range, from the mid $140s to the low $180s, and reiterating positive ratings on the shares.
Narrative Update • Dec 12

TJX Strong Q3 Execution Will Drive Market Share Gains Ahead

TJX Companies fair value estimate has been raised from $164 to $181, as analysts point to strong Q3 results, raised long term guidance, resilient value positioning across categories, and continued market share and EPS growth potential supported by the off price sector backdrop. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts broadly highlight TJX's strong Q3 performance, improved long term guidance, and durable value proposition as key drivers behind a wave of upward price target revisions.
Narrative Update • Nov 27

TJX: Momentum From Q3 Gains And Market Share Advances Will Support Outlook

The fair value estimate for TJX Companies has been raised by analysts from approximately $151.84 to $159.16 per share. This adjustment reflects robust Q3 performance, raised guidance, and ongoing strength across key business segments.
Narrative Update • Nov 11

TJX: Strong Operating Margins And Execution Will Sustain Measured Performance Ahead

Analysts have raised their price target for TJX Companies slightly, from approximately $151.37 to $151.84. They cite strong business performance, robust operating margins, and a solid outlook supported by recent earnings results.
Narrative Update • Oct 28

Raised Guidance And Solid Performance Will Drive Further Market Share Gains

The analyst price target for TJX Companies has increased slightly from $149.44 to $151.37 per share. Analysts point to the company’s strong recent results, raised guidance, and sustained profitability compared to competitors.
Narrative Update • Aug 27

Global Store Base Will Reach 7,000, Increasing Customer Access

The analyst price target for TJX Companies has been raised to $149.44, reflecting strong Q2 outperformance, raised guidance, and sustained traffic and market share gains, though upside may be tempered by elevated valuation. Analyst Commentary Strong Q2 performance with both revenue and earnings exceeding expectations, fueled by healthy traffic growth across all banners.
New Narrative • Apr 08

HomeGoods And Sierra Expansion Will Shape Future Markets

Global expansion into high-potential markets like Canada, Europe, and new regions is set to drive significant sales growth and increased market share.
Seeking Alpha • Mar 27

The TJX Companies: Priced For Perfection (Rating Downgrade)

Summary TJX is executing well with solid same-store sales growth and effective management, but macroeconomic conditions have worsened, posing risks to FY25 earnings. Elevated inventory levels and potential margin contraction could pressure TJX's financial performance amid weakening consumer spending and increased fixed costs. TJX's current premium valuation compared to peers like Burlington and Ross is unsustainable, suggesting significant downside risk if macro conditions don't improve. I recommend a sell rating due to heightened macro risks, inventory concerns, and the stock being priced for perfection, despite strong management execution. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:TJX - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
1/31/202973,0297,0095,9978,7468
1/31/202868,0366,3815,6248,01821
1/31/202764,0315,9475,1127,72721
8/1/202662,3636,0675,8768,034N/A
5/2/202661,5845,7905,4777,599N/A
1/31/202660,3725,4944,9176,874N/A
11/1/202558,9795,1194,4186,421N/A
8/2/202557,9254,9744,0415,935N/A
5/3/202556,9924,8303,7775,773N/A
2/1/202556,3604,8644,1986,116N/A
11/2/202456,4214,8694,3666,212N/A
8/3/202455,6234,7634,4536,337N/A
5/4/202454,9134,6534,2696,049N/A
2/3/202454,2174,4744,3356,057N/A
10/28/202352,3264,1094,6456,282N/A
7/29/202351,2283,9814,5806,164N/A
4/29/202350,3133,8023,9595,463N/A
1/28/202349,9363,4982,6274,084N/A
10/29/202249,2703,4007402,169N/A
7/30/202249,6353,3608232,116N/A
4/30/202249,8693,3361,7222,856N/A
1/29/202248,5503,2832,0123,057N/A
10/30/202145,6392,6681,3822,232N/A
7/31/202143,2242,5124,6095,312N/A
5/1/202137,8151,5126,7077,290N/A
1/30/202132,137903,9944,562N/A
10/31/202033,4007505,8066,470N/A
8/1/202033,7347112,4093,364N/A
5/2/202036,8481,685N/A757N/A
2/1/202041,7173,272N/A4,067N/A
11/2/201940,6383,129N/A3,484N/A
8/3/201940,0123,063N/A3,427N/A
5/4/201939,5623,044N/A3,513N/A
2/2/201938,9733,060N/A4,088N/A
11/3/201838,8063,096N/A3,574N/A
8/4/201837,7432,975N/A3,483N/A
5/5/201836,7692,788N/A3,302N/A
2/3/201835,8652,608N/A3,026N/A
10/28/201734,3722,409N/A3,444N/A
7/29/201733,9012,317N/A3,546N/A
4/29/201733,4252,326N/A3,630N/A
1/28/201733,1842,298N/A3,627N/A
10/29/201632,6782,287N/A3,393N/A
7/30/201632,1402,324N/A3,192N/A
4/30/201631,6222,311N/A2,935N/A
1/30/201630,9452,278N/A2,957N/A
10/31/201530,2872,259N/A2,839N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TJX's forecast earnings growth (6.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.7%).

Earnings vs Market: TJX's earnings (6.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (17.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TJX's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: TJX's revenue (6.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TJX's revenue (6.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TJX's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (57.4%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/21 03:54
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/18 00:00
Earnings2026/08/01
Annual Earnings2026/01/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

The TJX Companies, Inc. is covered by 45 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christopher GrajaArgus Research Company
Mark AltschwagerBaird
Robert DrbulBarclays