Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.

NYSE:FND Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.1b

Floor & Decor Holdings Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Floor & Decor Holdings is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 11% and 6.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 10.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 8.7% in 3 years.

Key information

11.0%

Earnings growth rate

10.08%

EPS growth rate

Specialty Retail earnings growth9.9%
Revenue growth rate6.2%
Future return on equity8.71%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated12 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • May 04

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:FND ), given that the company...
Analysis Article • Aug 03

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:FND) Second-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:FND ) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time...

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 19

Floor & Decor's Cyclical Malaise Vs. Structural Moat

Summary Given four consecutive years of Floor & Decor's same-store sales decline, even the more “settled” bull thesis is under the scanner these days. While HD’s share somewhat stabilized post-2022, LOW and other independent stores continue to donate share to FND. To be fair, FND critics are more focused on per-store metrics than overall market share since they believe FND is gaining share primarily via opening new stores. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 07

FND: Reset Expectations And Store Expansion Will Support Fair Value Through 2026

Analysts lowered the updated price target on Floor & Decor Holdings by about $23 to roughly $55, reflecting more cautious assumptions on revenue growth, margins, valuation multiples, and a series of resets across recent research reports. Analyst Commentary Research coverage on Floor & Decor has turned more cautious, with a broad wave of price target cuts across large and mid sized firms.
Analysis Article • May 04

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:FND ), given that the company...
Narrative Update • Apr 21

FND: Lower Future P/E Expectations Will Restrain Upside Despite Ongoing Store Expansion

Analysts have trimmed the implied fair value for Floor & Decor Holdings by about $9 to roughly $47, reflecting a series of reduced Street price targets and a more cautious stance on the stock's appropriate future P/E multiple, despite modest adjustments to revenue growth and margin assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Floor & Decor has leaned cautious, with several firms cutting price targets and, in some cases, downgrading the stock.
Narrative Update • Apr 05

FND: 2026 Housing Turnover Recovery Will Support Market Share And Margin Inflection

The analyst price target for Floor & Decor Holdings has been reduced by $1 overall, as several firms trimmed their targets on softer Q4 comps, weather-related disruption in Q1, and a cautious backdrop, even as some highlight early signs of an inflection and potential market share gains. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research shows a cluster of lower price targets in a relatively tight range, with most firms keeping neutral or equivalent ratings after the Q4 comps miss and Q1 weather disruption.
Narrative Update • Mar 22

FND: Margin Leverage And Store Expansion Will Unlock Earnings Upside

Floor & Decor Holdings' fair value estimate has been revised slightly lower to $56 from $58 as analysts trim price targets in the $64 to $78 range, citing softer Q4 comps, weather disruptions in Q1, and a more measured view on revenue growth. At the same time, they highlight improving margins and potential longer term earnings leverage.
Narrative Update • Mar 08

FND: 2026 Housing Turnover Recovery Will Support Store Expansion And Margin Inflection

Analysts have trimmed their average price targets for Floor & Decor by a few dollars to a range in the mid $60s to high $70s, reflecting recent Q4 comps softness and weather related headwinds, while still acknowledging signs of improving trends in certain regions and updated post earnings models. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates around Floor & Decor skew cautious on near term trading, but there are a few constructive signals you might want to keep in mind as you think about the story.
Narrative Update • Feb 22

FND: 2026 Housing Turnover Recovery Will Drive Comps And Margin Inflection

The fair value estimate for Floor & Decor Holdings has been reduced by $2 to $90, as analysts temper their price targets in response to softer Q4 comps, weather related Q1 disruptions, and more cautious views on near term execution, even as longer term market share and earnings potential remain part of the debate. Analyst Commentary Street research around Floor & Decor Holdings has tilted more cautious on near term execution, but the broader takeaway is that most firms remain on the sidelines rather than shifting to outright bearish calls.
Narrative Update • Feb 07

FND: Rich P/E And Execution Risks Will Restrain Housing Recovery Upside

The analyst price target for Floor & Decor Holdings has shifted to about US$58 per share, with the change reflecting analysts’ updated views on slightly higher long term growth assumptions, a higher discount rate, modestly lower margin expectations and a richer future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Floor & Decor Holdings has been mixed, with some firms lifting ratings or targets and others trimming their expectations.
Narrative Update • Jan 24

FND: Easing Housing Headwinds And Margin Resilience Will Support Fair Value Through 2026

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Floor & Decor Holdings by about US$0.55 per share. This reflects slightly lower growth and valuation assumptions, partly offset by firmer margin expectations and a lower projected future P/E multiple.
Analysis Article • Jan 14

Earnings Not Telling The Story For Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:FND) After Shares Rise 25%

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:FND ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great...
Narrative Update • Jan 10

FND: 2026 Housing Turnover Recovery Is Expected To Restore Comps And Margins

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Floor & Decor Holdings to $92.00 from $100.00. This reflects updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples in light of recent price target revisions and mixed sector views across the Street.
Narrative Update • Dec 26

FND: Easing Housing Headwinds Will Drive Comparable Sales And Margin Recovery By 2026

Analysts have nudged their average price target for Floor & Decor Holdings slightly lower by about $0.45 to approximately $78 per share. This reflects modestly higher discount rate assumptions, even as they highlight the potential for comp and margin improvement, market share gains, and a more supportive housing backdrop into 2026.
Narrative Update • Dec 12

FND: Housing Turnover Recovery In 2026 Is Expected To Unlock Upside

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Floor & Decor Holdings slightly lower to $100.00 from $105.00, reflecting more conservative assumptions for revenue growth and discount rates. They still anticipate gradual comp and margin improvement alongside potential market share gains in a stabilizing housing backdrop.
Narrative Update • Nov 27

FND: Improving Housing Environment Will Drive Comparable Sales Recovery By 2026

Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Floor & Decor Holdings to $78.27 from $78.91, citing ongoing competitive pressures and mixed views on near-term demand. They note potential for improved margins and market share gains in 2026.
Narrative Update • Nov 12

FND: Broader Housing Turnaround Will Restore Sales Momentum Amid Mortgage Rate Pressures

The analyst price target for Floor & Decor Holdings has been revised downward from approximately $81.55 to $78.91. Analysts point to weaker demand trends, pressure on same-store sales, and a slightly increased discount rate as supporting factors for the lower valuation.
Narrative Update • Oct 29

Lower Interest Rates Will Drive Recovery When Flooring Demand Stabilizes

The analyst price target for Floor & Decor Holdings has been revised downward from $82.23 to $81.55. Analysts cite continued weak flooring demand, slower performance from new stores compared to prior cohorts, and concerns over valuation despite potential benefits from lower interest rates.
Narrative Update • Oct 14

Robust Warehouse Expansion And Urbanization Will Fuel Renovation Demand

Narrative Update on Floor & Decor Holdings Analysts have lowered their fair value estimate for Floor & Decor Holdings from $83.86 to $82.23 per share. They cite continued weak demand trends and concerns over the performance of new store openings.
Analysis Article • Sep 12

The Returns At Floor & Decor Holdings (NYSE:FND) Aren't Growing

There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. In a perfect world, we'd like to...
Analysis Article • Aug 03

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:FND) Second-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:FND ) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time...
Analysis Article • Jul 20

Floor & Decor Holdings (NYSE:FND) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Analysis Article • Jun 12

What You Can Learn From Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:FND) P/E

When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 18x, you may...
Analysis Article • May 25

At US$73.31, Is Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:FND) Worth Looking At Closely?

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:FND ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw significant share price...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 21

Floor & Decor Holdings Aim To Strengthen Its Dominance In The Downturn

Summary Floor & Decor Holdings' Q4 earnings show macro headwinds, but they continue to gain market share and maintain strong gross margins despite external challenges. FND is the top specialty retailer in flooring with an extensive product assortment, large store sizes, and an unmatched supply chain. Management is confident about 2025, guiding 3% comp sales growth and net sales between $4.74 billion and $4.9 billion. Investing during a downturn is risky, but FND's expansion and strong competitive advantages position it well for long-term growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 06

Floor & Decor Holdings: FY 2025 Is A Very Uncertain Year

Summary I maintain a hold rating on Floor & Decor Holdings stock due to ongoing near-term risks and uncertain FY25 performance. Despite some recovery signs in 4Q24, weak CSSG, potential store cannibalization, and rising costs make me cautious. FND's aggressive expansion plans and new distribution centers could pressure margins, while tariffs add further cost risks. At 42x forward earnings, FND's valuation lacks a sufficient margin of safety given the current challenges and uncertainties. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 23

Floor & Decor: Macro Headwinds Persist

Summary The US housing market remains weak, with poor existing home sales and high mortgage rates, negatively impacting Floor & Decor Holdings' growth prospects. Consumer spending has shifted towards services, further hurting demand for large-ticket items like flooring, as seen with FND and its peers. Despite potential short-term gains from hurricane rebuilding and competitor closures, FND's high valuation (~50x forward earnings) poses significant downside risk. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 21

Floor & Decor: There Are Better Ways To Play Home Improvement

Summary I initially rated Floor & Decor a BUY in August 2022, but now downgraded to SELL due to underperformance and Berkshire Hathaway's exit. FND failed to meet its ambitious 2022-2024 growth targets, with significant misses in sales growth, store expansion, and profitability metrics. Despite heavy investments, FND's revenue growth has lagged while operating expenses surged, offering neither growth nor profitability in the current market. FND's store operating model is inefficient compared to Lowe's and Home Depot, raising concerns about its ability to achieve profitability even in a better environment. LOW, HD, and TREX offer better ways to play in home improvement. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 23

Floor & Decor's Expansion Plans Weighing On Profits

Summary I anticipate Q3 earnings to show pressured profitability, primarily due to rising expenses from aggressive store openings. Double-digit decline in operating and net income is concerning, reflecting challenges in cost control due to their expansion plans. I'm particularly concerned with the company's declining comparable store sales, which signal weakening demand for their products. Recent sizable selling activity by an activist investor may indicate low confidence in the company’s near-term growth prospects. I project that profitability will improve only if expenses stabilize and better sales performance are achieved. Until I see positive results from their expansion plans, I maintain a Hold rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Aug 22

Expanding Warehouse Stores And Prudent Capital Strategy Poised To Propel Growth Amid Market Challenges

Focusing on new warehouse openings in larger, familiar markets aims to enhance revenue and net margins through better sales efficiency.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 04

Floor & Decor Holdings: Timing Of Demand Recovery Is Still Uncertain (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Shifted recommendation from sell to hold due to potential demand recovery with Fed rate cuts. Floor & Decor's 2Q24 results showed the continued impact of a poor macro environment on SSSG and overall demand. Management's strategic decisions and margin improvements are positive, but valuation and uncertain demand recovery warrant a hold rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • May 24

Floor & Decor Holdings: Potential Worse Macro Conditions May Impair Near-Term Growth

Summary I reiterate my sell rating for FND due to the stock's high valuation and potential for a worsening macro environment. FND has not shown signs of improvement, with comp store sales continuing to decline and net sales growth in the negative region. I believe that mortgage rates could climb further, impairing housing affordability and demand for FND products. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:FND - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20285,6182721686229
12/31/20275,12123513551021
12/31/20264,82820613247022
3/26/20264,676199105420N/A
12/25/20254,68420964382N/A
9/25/20254,66221723359N/A
6/26/20254,60021135417N/A
3/27/20254,519205125527N/A
12/26/20244,456206156603N/A
9/26/20244,396195123606N/A
6/27/20244,386210174668N/A
3/28/20244,389224181701N/A
12/28/20234,414246256804N/A
9/28/20234,414278257804N/A
6/29/20234,40428860581N/A
3/30/20234,358299-129366N/A
12/29/20224,264298-344112N/A
9/29/20224,131279-509-56N/A
6/30/20223,909277-43753N/A
3/31/20223,680278-266197N/A
12/30/20213,434283-106301N/A
9/30/20213,243290121501N/A
7/1/20213,051285288566N/A
4/1/20212,653234263482N/A
12/31/20202,426195194406N/A
9/24/20202,229173100265N/A
6/25/20202,065145-5179N/A
3/26/20202,1231570202N/A
12/26/20192,045151N/A205N/A
9/26/20191,955133N/A252N/A
6/27/20191,870119N/A224N/A
3/28/20191,784115N/A172N/A
12/27/20181,710116N/A186N/A
9/27/20181,663146N/A170N/A
6/28/20181,571143N/A127N/A
3/29/20181,480124N/A94N/A
12/28/20171,385103N/A109N/A
9/28/20171,27472N/A101N/A
6/29/20171,20162N/A113N/A
3/30/20171,12347N/A126N/A
12/29/20161,05143N/A89N/A
9/29/201699536N/A56N/A
12/31/201578427N/A20N/A
9/24/201572321N/A35N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FND's forecast earnings growth (11% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: FND's earnings (11% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: FND's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: FND's revenue (6.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FND's revenue (6.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FND's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (8.7%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/21 12:10
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/21 00:00
Earnings2026/03/26
Annual Earnings2025/12/25

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. is covered by 34 analysts. 22 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Peter BenedictBaird
Seth SigmanBarclays
Karen ShortBarclays