Shoe Carnival, Inc.

NasdaqGS:SCVL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$493.1m

Shoe Carnival Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Shoe Carnival is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 3.9% and 1.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 3.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 7.5% in 3 years.

Key information

3.9%

Earnings growth rate

3.46%

EPS growth rate

Specialty Retail earnings growth9.8%
Revenue growth rate1.9%
Future return on equity7.50%
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated01 Apr 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Mar 30

Shoe Carnival's Rebannering Plan Might Not Be Going Well (Rating Downgrade)

Summary Shoe Carnival faces challenges as its rebannering to higher-end Shoe Station stores underperforms expectations, with negative comps and flat gross margins. SCVL's transformation is hindered by a slowing sneaker market, consumer spending pressure, and upcoming 2026 tariff impacts that will further constrain margins. With a forward P/E of 10.66, SCVL's valuation is in line with peers, but 2026 EPS is likely at the low end of guidance ($1.40), implying 7% downside. I downgrade SCVL to hold as the rebannering strategy's risks and execution uncertainty outweigh near-term value potential. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Feb 23

SCVL: Index Removals Will Pressure Overvalued Shares Despite New Buyback

Analysts have kept Shoe Carnival's fair value estimate steady at $19.00, with only small tweaks to inputs such as the discount rate and future P/E assumptions shaping this price target update. What's in the News Shoe Carnival, Inc.
Narrative Update • Feb 09

SCVL: Index Removals And Buybacks Will Guide A Steady Valuation Outlook

Analysts have maintained their Shoe Carnival fair value estimate at $19.00. The slight adjustment in the discount rate and future P/E reflects updated views on the company’s risk profile and expected earnings multiple, rather than a change in the headline price target.
Analysis Article • Feb 05

Shoe Carnival, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SCVL) Shares Lagging The Market But So Is The Business

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 9.7x Shoe Carnival, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SCVL ) may be sending very bullish...
Narrative Update • Jan 25

SCVL: Index Removals And Buybacks Will Shape A Steady Forward Outlook

Analysts kept their fair value estimate for Shoe Carnival steady at US$19.00. They pointed to only slight tweaks in discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions that did not materially change their price target view.
Narrative Update • Jan 10

SCVL: Index Removals And Buyback Plan Will Frame A Steady Outlook

Analysts kept their fair value estimate for Shoe Carnival steady at $19.00, with only slight adjustments to inputs such as the discount rate and assumed future P/E that reflect fine tuning rather than a shift in their core view. What's in the News Shoe Carnival was removed from several S&P benchmarks, including the S&P 600, S&P 600 Consumer Discretionary sector, S&P 1000, and S&P Composite 1500 indices.
Narrative Update • Dec 20

SCVL: Share Repurchases And Guidance Will Support Fairly Valued Outlook

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Shoe Carnival to approximately $19.00, citing slightly higher discount rate and future earnings multiple assumptions while keeping revenue growth and profit margin expectations effectively unchanged. What's in the News The Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase plan allowing Shoe Carnival to buy back up to $50 million of its stock, funded from cash on hand, with the program running through December 31, 2026 (share repurchase announcement).
Narrative Update • Dec 06

SCVL: Value Positioning Will Support Guidance Amid Rebanner Progress And Earnings Reset

Analysts have nudged their price target on Shoe Carnival slightly higher to approximately $19.00 per share, reflecting modestly lower discount rate assumptions while maintaining broadly unchanged expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and future valuation multiples. What's in the News Shoe Carnival reaffirmed its Fiscal 2025 net sales outlook while raising the lower end of its EPS guidance to a range of $1.80 to $2.10, reflecting stronger third quarter results and faster progress on store rebanners (Corporate guidance, raised).
Narrative Update • Nov 21

SCVL: Value-Focused Positioning Will Appeal To Budget-Conscious Shoppers Ahead

Narrative Update: Shoe Carnival Analyst Price Target Analysts have lowered Shoe Carnival’s fair value estimate from $22.00 to $19.00, citing weaker-than-expected back-to-school sales and a more cautious outlook on the company’s growth and profitability metrics. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts note that the company’s value-driven positioning could appeal to budget-conscious consumers, especially in uncertain economic conditions.
Analysis Article • Sep 08

Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCVL) Held Back By Insufficient Growth Even After Shares Climb 26%

Shoe Carnival, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SCVL ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 26% share price jump in the...
Analysis Article • Sep 05

Is There An Opportunity With Shoe Carnival, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SCVL) 25% Undervaluation?

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Shoe Carnival fair value estimate is US$34.46 Shoe Carnival is...
Narrative Update • Aug 27

Rebanner Expansion Will Attract Premium Shoppers Yet Will Face Uncertainties

The downward revision in Shoe Carnival's price target reflects weaker fundamentals, notably a decline in both expected revenue growth and net profit margin, resulting in a new fair value estimate of $21.00. What's in the News No shares repurchased under the buyback program announced on December 12, 2024.
Analysis Article • Jul 07

Shoe Carnival, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SCVL) Share Price Is Matching Sentiment Around Its Earnings

When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 19x, you may...
Analysis Article • Mar 27

Shoe Carnival's (NASDAQ:SCVL) Dividend Will Be Increased To $0.15

Shoe Carnival, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SCVL ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend from last year's comparable...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 21

I Still Like Growth Prospects At Shoe Carnival, But Have A Hold For Now

Summary Shoe Carnival remains debt-free with plans for organic and acquired growth, but I have downgraded my rating from Buy to Hold pending evidence of growth strategy success. Despite modestly better fiscal 2024 results, the share price has fallen, and the company faces negative EPS revisions and declining growth compared to peers. The rebranding to Shoe Station aims to improve margins, supported by a strong balance sheet, growing dividends, and share repurchases. While the stock's valuation may not appeal to all investors, its potential for growth makes it a possibility among growth investors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Mar 11

Here's What To Make Of Shoe Carnival's (NASDAQ:SCVL) Decelerating Rates Of Return

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...
Analysis Article • Feb 19

Shoe Carnival, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SCVL) Low P/E No Reason For Excitement

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.5x Shoe Carnival, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SCVL ) may be sending very bullish...
Analysis Article • Jan 02

At US$33.08, Is It Time To Put Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCVL) On Your Watch List?

Shoe Carnival, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SCVL ), is not the largest company out there, but it received a lot of attention from a...
Analysis Article • Nov 24

Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCVL) Just Reported Third-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Last week, you might have seen that Shoe Carnival, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SCVL ) released its third-quarter result to the...
Analysis Article • Nov 22

Shoe Carnival (NASDAQ:SCVL) Has Some Way To Go To Become A Multi-Bagger

Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...
Analysis Article • Nov 07

Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCVL) Shares Could Be 27% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Shoe Carnival fair value estimate is US$51.87 Shoe Carnival is...
Analysis Article • Sep 21

Shoe Carnival, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SCVL) Earnings Are Not Doing Enough For Some Investors

Shoe Carnival, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:SCVL ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16x might make it look like a buy right now...
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New Narrative • Sep 15

Rogan's Acquisition And Digital Marketing Propel Record Sales And Market Expansion

Acquisition and integration strategies, including digital marketing shifts, are significantly enhancing revenue, market share, and operational efficiency.
Seeking Alpha • Sep 12

Shoe Carnival Expects A Positive H2 2024, But The Stock Is Too Pricey

Summary Shoe Carnival's 2Q24 results showed a 13% sales increase, driven by acquisitions and calendar shifts, with comparable sales down 2.1% but improving sequentially. Margins improved due to higher sales, but are expected to decrease in 2H24 due to marketing expenses and calendar shifts. Management's positive guidance for 2H24 includes comparable sales up to 5%, driven by digital marketing and store conversions, but I maintain a Hold rating. Despite strong management and no debt, SCVL's 10.5% yield is low for a footwear retailer, especially heading into a potential recession. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Aug 13

The Returns At Shoe Carnival (NASDAQ:SCVL) Aren't Growing

There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. One common approach is to try and...
Seeking Alpha • Aug 02

Enhancing Customer Experience - Shoe Carnival's 'Fit Finder' And Its Potential For Growth

Summary Strategic Positioning: Shoe Carnival is leveraging strategic acquisitions and a digital-first marketing approach, including innovative features like the "Fit Finder," to navigate a complex retail landscape and improve the customer experience. Financial Performance: The company saw a 6.8% revenue increase in Q1 2024, driven by the acquisition of Rogan's Shoes and improvements in its e-commerce platform, despite rising SG&A expenses. SCVL's cautious expansion is expected to achieve 3.63% revenue growth, with profit growth at 0% to 2% due to integration and marketing costs. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Jul 27

Calculating The Fair Value Of Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCVL)

Key Insights Shoe Carnival's estimated fair value is US$48.90 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share...
Seeking Alpha • Jul 27

After A Two-Year Slump, Shoe Carnival Is Back On Track For Growth

Summary Shoe Carnival, Inc. is turning around its fortunes with Q1 of fiscal 2024 being a pivotal point. The company is launching initiatives to grow the business and constrain costs, and they are expected to lead to 6% earnings growth. Shoe Carnival has a competitive advantage in the retail footwear business, with a focus on customer experience. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:SCVL - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
1/31/20291,2045864881
1/31/20281,1715259832
1/31/20271,136411091312
1/31/20261,135522771N/A
11/1/20251,144583582N/A
8/2/20251,154622466N/A
5/3/20251,180664076N/A
2/1/20251,2037469103N/A
11/2/20241,2207574111N/A
8/3/20241,23377100141N/A
5/4/20241,1957486138N/A
2/3/20241,1767366123N/A
10/28/20231,1867944101N/A
7/29/20231,20890664N/A
4/29/20231,226100-3135N/A
1/28/20231,262110-2750N/A
10/29/20221,285109-2846N/A
7/30/20221,300123877N/A
4/30/20221,3191393589N/A
1/29/20221,330155117148N/A
10/30/20211,271142161184N/A
7/31/20211,189110100117N/A
5/1/20211,15875169183N/A
1/30/2021977165163N/A
10/31/2020963122639N/A
8/1/2020963116983N/A
5/2/2020930132133N/A
2/1/20201,037434867N/A
11/2/20191,03141N/A64N/A
8/3/20191,02639N/A70N/A
5/4/20191,02639N/A56N/A
2/2/20191,03038N/A74N/A
11/3/20181,03833N/A69N/A
8/4/20181,05731N/A81N/A
5/5/20181,02323N/A59N/A
2/3/20181,01919N/A40N/A
10/28/20171,01022N/A51N/A
7/29/201799721N/A25N/A
4/29/201799421N/A50N/A
1/28/20171,00123N/A64N/A
10/29/20161,00128N/A57N/A
7/30/201699628N/A74N/A
4/30/201699228N/A46N/A
1/30/201698428N/A59N/A
10/31/201597827N/A63N/A
8/1/201596328N/A45N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SCVL's forecast earnings growth (3.9% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: SCVL's earnings (3.9% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SCVL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: SCVL's revenue (1.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SCVL's revenue (1.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SCVL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (7.5%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/11 18:16
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/08 00:00
Earnings2026/01/31
Annual Earnings2026/01/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Shoe Carnival, Inc. is covered by 11 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Mitchel KummetzB. Riley Securities, Inc.
Randal KonikJefferies LLC
David MannJohnson Rice & Company, L.L.C.