National Vision (EYE): A Fresh Look at Valuation Following Q3 Earnings Release

National Vision Holdings (EYE) has caught investor attention following the announcement of its third quarter 2025 earnings release and conference call, an event that typically offers important insights into recent performance and the company’s outlook.

See our latest analysis for National Vision Holdings.

National Vision Holdings has staged an impressive comeback, with total shareholder return soaring 160.16% over the past year and the share price more than doubling year-to-date, despite some recent pullback. This momentum suggests market confidence is rebounding as investors digest earnings signals and shifting risk perceptions.

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With shares now up more than 160% over the past year, investors must ask whether National Vision Holdings is still undervalued after its rally, or if all the optimism for future growth is already reflected in the price.

Most Popular Narrative: 14.5% Undervalued

With National Vision Holdings closing at $25.47 while the most widely followed narrative calls fair value at $29.80, debate is swirling around the story behind this bullish valuation shift.

Expansion of managed care customer base and broader vision insurance adoption is accelerating, as evidenced by the double-digit managed care comp growth and ongoing initiatives to capture more insured customers. This directly supports higher and more resilient patient volumes, expanding top-line revenue and increasing average ticket per transaction.

Read the complete narrative.

Could bold moves to grow managed care and drive up revenue per sale really justify such a rich future price? This narrative relies on aggressive improvements in revenue growth, profit margins, and a projected profit multiple that is uncommon in retail. Are you intrigued to see which ambitious financial forecasts underpin that optimistic price target? Only the full narrative reveals the complete blueprint for this valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $29.80 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent competition from online eyewear brands and ongoing shortages of optometrists could still threaten National Vision's growth prospects and limit profit expansion.

Find out about the key risks to this National Vision Holdings narrative.

Another View: Looking at Peer Comparisons

While analysts see National Vision Holdings as undervalued based on future earnings growth, a closer look at its price-to-sales ratio tells a different story. The company trades at 1.1x sales, which is more expensive than the US Specialty Retail industry average of 0.5x and matches its own fair ratio of 1.1x. Compared to its typical industry peers, this suggests limited upside and perhaps some valuation risk if expectations slip. Is the recent momentum enough to keep driving the share price higher, or could a reversion toward the industry average spark a reality check?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own National Vision Holdings Narrative

If you think there is another side to the story or want to dig into the numbers on your own terms, you can build your own narrative in just minutes, your way with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding National Vision Holdings.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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