Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO): Assessing Valuation Following Expansion to 24 New Stores in 2025

Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) just announced the opening of five new stores in the fourth quarter of 2025, increasing its annual count to 24 new locations. This ongoing expansion and community focus have caught the eyes of investors.

See our latest analysis for Academy Sports and Outdoors.

Academy's push into new markets and its focus on community engagement has caught the market's attention, as shown by the 1-day share price return of 3.54% and a robust 14.05% gain over the past week. This suggests building momentum. Still, the long-term total shareholder return tells a more complex story, remaining near break-even over the past year and slightly negative for the past three years, before a strong 202% five-year total return. Recent expansion announcements may be shifting investor sentiment toward optimism around growth potential.

If Academy's growth story has you searching for what else is out there, it might be the perfect time to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With shares currently trading at a discount to analyst targets but coming off a mixed year for returns, investors are left wondering if Academy Sports and Outdoors is undervalued or if the market has already priced in its next phase of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 16.1% Undervalued

With Academy Sports and Outdoors closing at $48.22, the most widely followed narrative pegs its fair value significantly higher, hinting at potential upside for patient investors.

An ongoing store expansion strategy focused on secondary/tertiary markets with growing populations and suburban migration (20 to 25 new stores in 2025, robust early comps in new stores) sets up above-peer top-line growth and improved operating leverage as these locations mature.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the real engine behind this bullish valuation? The narrative bets on rising profits, expanding margins, and a future multiple that challenges today’s market norms. Which assumptions power this “undervalued” label? Peek inside to find the bold projections analysts are making about Academy Sports and Outdoors’ next phase.

Result: Fair Value of $57.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent cost pressures and heavy reliance on higher-income shoppers could undermine Academy's growth narrative if economic conditions shift or margins are squeezed.

Find out about the key risks to this Academy Sports and Outdoors narrative.

Build Your Own Academy Sports and Outdoors Narrative

If you’re driven to dig deeper and tell a different story than the mainstream, know you can shape your own Academy Sports and Outdoors narrative in just minutes. Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Academy Sports and Outdoors.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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