Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for OTCPK:GECF.F using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity using Funds From Operations Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
Gecina is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), we use funds from operations (FFO) or adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) instead of levered free cash flow for REITs. This excludes depreciation and borrowing. Ideally analysts estimates of AFFO are used, where these aren't available we use FFO.
OTCPK:GECF.F DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
The current share price of
is above its future cash flow value.
Often investors are willing to pay a
for a company that has a high dividend or the potential for future growth.
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Gecina's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Gecina's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is not considered high growth.
Gecina's revenue is expected to grow by 2.9% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Gecina's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
2/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mrs. Mahkâmeh Brunel has been the Chief Executive Officer of Gecina SA since January 6, 2017. Mrs. Brunel serves as the President of Europe at Ivanhoé Cambridge, Inc. Mrs. Brunel is responsible for the investment, operational, leasing, asset management and development activities for Ivanhoé Cambridge’s European Platform. She is President of France GBC. Mrs. Brunel served as an Executive Vice President of Europe at Ivanhoé Cambridge, Inc. since 2009. She served as Managing Director of SITQ Europe at SITQ. Mrs. Brunel served as the Managing Director at Eurosic SA, since October 27, 2006 and also served as its Member of the Management Board. She served for ten years at the Fougerolle group. She joined SINVIM where she served as an Assistant Director, in charge of its real estate activities. Mrs. Brunel joined SIMCO in 1996 where she held various management positions and honed her knowledge of the construction sector before participating in the merger of GECINA, where she served as Director for Strategic Development. She served as Development Director at Gecina SA and oversaw strategic development designed to promote the diversification of the real estate corporation. She has been Independent Director of Crédit Foncier de France since May 10, 2012. She serves as a Director of Gecimed, FSIF and EPRA SA. Mrs. Brunel has been a Director of Gecina SA since April 23, 2014. She was Director of P3. She was Director of HBS PG. She serves as a Director of the Fédération des Sociétés Immobilières et Foncières, the Office Régional d'Immobilier d'Entreprise, the Université de Cergy-Pontoise and Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors France. She is Chairwoman of the Development Board of Métropole du Grand Paris (Codev). She is Legal representative of Gecina, member of the ORIE Collège Investisseurs (Investment Council). Mrs. Brunel holds an Executive M.B.A. and a degree in Civil Engineering from HEC Paris.
Méka's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.
Méka's remuneration is lower than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The tenure for the Gecina management team is about average.
CEO & Director
Deputy CEO of Finance
Executive Director of Investments & Development
Executive Director of Legal Affairs & General Secretary
Executive Director of Communication & Public Affairs
Chief of Staff
Head of Financial Communications
Head of Asset Management Projects
Director of Valuations & Appraisals
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Gecina board of directors is about average.
Gecina owns, manages and develops property holdings worth 19.3 billion euros at end- 2018. As a specialist for centrality and uses, the Group is building its business around Europe’s leading office portfolio, with nearly 97% located in the Paris Region, and a diversification division with residential assets and student residences. Gecina has put sustainable innovation at the heart of its strategy to create value and anticipate the expectations of around 100,000 customers and end users, thanks to the dedication and expertise of its staff, who are committed to an understated, fluid and inclusive city. To offer its customers high-quality services and support their changing needs, Gecina has launched YouFirst, its relational brand. Gecina is a French real estate investment trust (SIIC) listed on Euronext Paris, and is part of the SBF 120, CAC Next 20, CAC Large 60, Euronext 100, FTSE4Good, DJSI Europe and World, Stoxx Global ESG Leaders and Vigeo indices. In line with its commitments to the community, Gecina has created a company foundation, which is focused on protecting the environment and supporting all forms of disability.
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