NYSE:XIN

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, develops residential real estate properties for middle income consumers in the People’s Republic of China, the United States, and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 22.2% below its fair value

Earnings grew by 190.8% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Unstable dividend track record



Snowflake Analysis

Undervalued with solid track record.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Xinyuan Real Estate's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: XIN has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

1.9%

XIN

2.6%

US Real Estate

1.7%

US Market


1 Year Return

-21.9%

XIN

15.6%

US Real Estate

23.2%

US Market

Return vs Industry: XIN underperformed the US Real Estate industry which returned 17.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: XIN underperformed the US Market which returned 24.7% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

XINIndustryMarket
7 Day1.9%2.6%1.7%
30 Day-6.1%1.1%4.2%
90 Day-9.1%12.6%11.9%
1 Year-14.6%-21.9%16.6%15.6%25.8%23.2%
3 Year-14.3%-32.7%40.9%37.4%52.8%42.9%
5 Year156.4%78.7%20.4%16.3%75.2%55.8%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Xinyuan Real Estate's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Xinyuan Real Estate undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

20.7%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: XIN ($3.63) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($4.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: XIN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: XIN is good value based on its PE Ratio (2x) compared to the Real Estate industry average (25.3x).

PE vs Market: XIN is good value based on its PE Ratio (2x) compared to the US market (18.9x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate XIN's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: XIN is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.3x) compared to the US Real Estate industry average (1.5x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Xinyuan Real Estate forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 0 analysts?

14.5%

Forecasted Real Estate industry annual growth in earnings


In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Xinyuan Real Estate has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by SimplyWall St do have past financial data.


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Xinyuan Real Estate performed over the past 5 years?

9.1%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: XIN has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: XIN's current net profit margins (3.9%) are higher than last year (1.9%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: XIN's earnings have grown by 9.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: XIN's earnings growth over the past year (190.8%) exceeds its 5-year average (9.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: XIN earnings growth over the past year (190.8%) exceeded the Real Estate industry -25%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst XIN's Return on Equity (20.8%) is high, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Xinyuan Real Estate's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: XIN's short term assets ($5.5B) exceed its short term liabilities ($3.7B).

Long Term Liabilities: XIN's short term assets ($5.5B) exceed its long term liabilities ($2.7B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: XIN's debt to equity ratio (456.6%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: XIN's debt to equity ratio has increased from 148.1% to 456.6% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: XIN's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: XIN's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (5.4x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: XIN has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: XIN's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 1.7x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Xinyuan Real Estate's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

10.81%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company10.8%marketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.6%industryaverage2.2%forecastin3Yearsn/a

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: XIN's dividend (11.02%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.4%).

High Dividend: XIN's dividend (11.02%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.66%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: XIN has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: XIN's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 9 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its low payout ratio (22.3%), XIN's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years and that it will be covered by earnings.


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Xinyuan Real Estate's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

0.6yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Yong Zhang (57yo)

0.6yrs

Tenure

0

Mr. Yong Zhang co-founded Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. in 1997 and serves as its Chief Executive Officer since June 20, 2019. Mr. Zhang has been the Chairman of Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. since 2007. M ...


Management Age and Tenure

0.6yrs

Average Tenure

56yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: XIN's management team is not considered experienced ( 0.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Age and Tenure

6.0yrs

Average Tenure

55yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: XIN's board of directors are considered experienced (6 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

SellUS$6,378,78320 Feb 19
TPG Capital, L.P.
EntityCompany
Shares1,289,972
Max PriceUS$4.94

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • Yong Zhang (57yo)

    Co-Founder

    • Tenure: 0.6yrs
  • Yuyan Yang (56yo)

    Co-Founder & Director

    • Tenure: 13yrs
  • Charles Wang

    Investor Relations Director

    • Xuefeng Li (42yo)

      General Manager of Finance

      • Tenure: 0.6yrs
    • Brian Chen

      Chief Financial Officer

      • Tenure: 0.6yrs

    Board Members

    • Tom Gurnee (67yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 12.1yrs
    • Yong Cui (46yo)

      Director

      • Tenure: 13.4yrs
    • Yong Zhang (57yo)

      Co-Founder

      • Tenure: 0.6yrs
    • Yuyan Yang (56yo)

      Co-Founder & Director

      • Tenure: 13yrs
    • Samuel Shen (54yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 1.7yrs
    • Frank Li (52yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 2.9yrs
    • Yumin Liang (56yo)

      Director

      • Tenure: 6yrs
    • Hao Gao (36yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 1.7yrs
    • Shangrong Li

      Director

      • Tenure: 0.2yrs

    Company Information

    Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


    Key Information

    • Name: Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd.
    • Ticker: XIN
    • Exchange: NYSE
    • Founded: 1997
    • Industry: Real Estate Development
    • Sector: Real Estate
    • Market Cap: US$233.504m
    • Shares outstanding: 63.11m
    • Website: https://www.xyre.com

    Number of Employees


    Location

    • Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd.
    • China Central Place, Tower II
    • 27th Floor
    • Beijing
    • 100025
    • China

    Listings

    TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
    XINNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesSPONS ADRUSUSDDec 2007
    3XRADB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesSPONS ADRDEEURDec 2007

    Biography

    Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, develops residential real estate properties for middle income consumers in the People’s Republic of China, the United States, and internationally. It develops residential projects, such as multi-layer apartment buildings, sub-high-rise apartment buildings, or high-rise apartment buildings; auxiliary services and amenities, such as retail outlets, leisure and health facilities, kindergartens, and schools; and small scale residential properties, as well as office, mixed-use, and commercial properties. The company also acquires development sites through public auctions of government land and direct negotiations. In addition, it provides property management services for its developments and other real estate-related services. Further, the company offers landscaping engineering and management, real estate consulting and marketing, leasing management, technical, and management consulting services; operates retail stores; and installs intercom systems. Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People’s Republic of China. 


    Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

    All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
    DataLast Updated (UTC time)
    Company Analysis2020/01/17 01:56
    End of Day Share Price2020/01/16 00:00
    Earnings2019/09/30
    Annual Earnings2018/12/31


    Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.