Xinyuan Real Estate (NYSE:XIN) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of XIN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

XIN ($0.8) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($72.58)

XIN fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	2/6

XIN Stock Overview

Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in residential real estate development in the People’s Republic of China, the United States, and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 98.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Risk Analysis

Earnings have declined by 41% per year over past 5 years

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Unstable dividend track record

Does not have a meaningful market cap ($43M)

Xinyuan Real Estate Competitors

Kaanapali Land

OTCPK:KANP

US$42.4m

Alset EHome International

NasdaqCM:AEI

US$34.6m

Forge Innovation Development

OTCPK:FGNV

US$60.2m

Green Giant

NasdaqCM:GGE

US$52.2m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Xinyuan Real Estate
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$0.80
52 Week High	US$2.76
52 Week Low	US$0.54
Beta	1.27
1 Month Change	-14.78%
3 Month Change	-27.83%
1 Year Change	-70.55%
3 Year Change	-80.84%
5 Year Change	-84.54%
Change since IPO	-95.23%

Shareholder Returns

	XIN	US Real Estate	US Market
7D	4.0%	9.2%	6.6%
1Y	-70.5%	-51.2%	-18.4%

Return vs Industry: XIN underperformed the US Real Estate industry which returned -51.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: XIN underperformed the US Market which returned -18.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is XIN's price volatile compared to industry and market?
XIN volatility
XIN Average Weekly Movement	9.0%
Real Estate Industry Average Movement	8.4%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: XIN is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: XIN's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1997	1,950	Yong Zhang	https://www.xyre.com

Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in residential real estate development in the People’s Republic of China, the United States, and internationally. It develops residential projects, such as multi-layer apartment buildings, sub-high-rise apartment buildings, high-rise apartment buildings; and auxiliary services and amenities, such as retail outlets, leisure and health facilities, kindergartens, and schools, as well as office, mixed-use, and commercial properties. The company also acquires development sites through public auctions of government land and direct negotiations.

Xinyuan Real Estate Fundamentals Summary

How do Xinyuan Real Estate's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
XIN fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$43.16m
Earnings (TTM)	-US$80.58m
Revenue (TTM)	US$2.12b

0.0x

P/S Ratio

-0.5x

P/E Ratio

Is XIN overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
XIN income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$2.12b
Cost of Revenue	US$1.77b
Gross Profit	US$347.53m
Other Expenses	US$428.11m
Earnings	-US$80.58m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-1.50
Gross Margin	16.38%
Net Profit Margin	-3.80%
Debt/Equity Ratio	300.2%

How did XIN perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

12.5%

Current Dividend Yield

n/a

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is XIN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for XIN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for XIN. This is calculated by dividing XIN's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is XIN's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$43.16m

XIN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	15.9x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does XIN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

XIN PS Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PS ratio for XIN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	356.7x
KANP Kaanapali Land	4.3x	n/a	US$42.4m
AEI Alset EHome International	2.1x	n/a	US$34.6m
FGNV Forge Innovation Development	1419.4x	n/a	US$60.2m
GGE Green Giant	1.2x	n/a	US$52.2m
XIN Xinyuan Real Estate	0.02x	n/a	US$43.2m

Forward PS

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: XIN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0x) compared to the peer average (356.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does XIN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Real Estate Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: XIN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0x) compared to the US Real Estate industry average (1.3x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is XIN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

XIN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.02x
Fair PS Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate XIN's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of XIN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: XIN ($0.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($72.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: XIN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate XIN's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

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Future Growth

How is Xinyuan Real Estate forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 0 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

39.1%

Forecasted Real Estate industry annual growth in earnings

In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Xinyuan Real Estate has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by SimplyWall St do have past financial data.

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Examine whether Xinyuan Real Estate is trading at an attractive price based on how much it is expected to earn in the future, and relative to its industry peers and the wider market.
Xinyuan Real Estate competitive advantages and company strategy can generally be found in its financial reports archived here.

Past Performance

How has Xinyuan Real Estate performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-41.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: XIN is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: XIN is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: XIN is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 41% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare XIN's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: XIN is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Real Estate industry (116.4%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: XIN has a negative Return on Equity (-7.11%), as it is currently unprofitable.

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Financial Health

How is Xinyuan Real Estate's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: XIN's short term assets ($5.9B) exceed its short term liabilities ($5.2B).

Long Term Liabilities: XIN's short term assets ($5.9B) exceed its long term liabilities ($1.9B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: XIN's net debt to equity ratio (183.7%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: XIN's debt to equity ratio has increased from 214.2% to 300.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: XIN's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (11.6%).

Interest Coverage: XIN's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Xinyuan Real Estate current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

12.48%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: XIN's dividend (12.48%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.57%).

High Dividend: XIN's dividend (12.48%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.24%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: XIN's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: XIN's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate cash payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

14.2yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Yong Zhang (59 yo)

25.42yrs

Tenure

Mr. Yong Zhang serves as Non-Executive Chairman and Director of Xinyuan Property Management Service (Cayman) Ltd. since April 09, 2019. Mr. Zhang co-founded Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd.in 1997 and serves...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: XIN's management team is seasoned and experienced (14.2 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: XIN's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 10.4 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2021/06/30
Annual Earnings	2020/12/31