Is Weyerhaeuser Attractively Priced After a 20% Drop in 2025?

• Wondering if Weyerhaeuser is a hidden bargain or just treading water? If you are looking for clues on whether the current share price spells opportunity or risk, you are in the right place.
• The stock has seen a bumpy ride lately, gaining 4.3% over the past week but still down 7.3% over the last month and a steep 20.5% lower year-to-date.
• Recent headlines highlight a combination of shifting investor sentiment across the real estate sector, along with a renewed focus on timberland as a long-term asset class. This has led to additional scrutiny of stocks like Weyerhaeuser. Broader market volatility and trends in real asset investment have amplified these moves, prompting investors to reconsider what fair value really looks like here.
• On our valuation check, Weyerhaeuser scores a 3 out of 6, meaning there are areas to dig further. Let us walk through the main valuation approaches and reveal a perspective at the end of the article that could provide you with an even more reliable view of Weyerhaeuser’s worth.

Find out why Weyerhaeuser's -29.1% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Weyerhaeuser Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts those amounts back to today’s dollars. This approach aims to estimate the intrinsic value of a business and provides investors with a sense of what a stock should be worth, based on its expected ability to generate cash in the future.

For Weyerhaeuser, the model uses the company’s latest twelve months Free Cash Flow of $533.7 million as its starting point. Analysts expect steady growth, with Free Cash Flow projected to reach $819 million by 2027. Further forecasts, extrapolated out to 2035, suggest Free Cash Flow could exceed $1.5 billion. These forward-looking numbers are discounted to reflect their present value in dollars, as future money is considered less valuable than money on hand today.

Using these projections and a two-stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, Weyerhaeuser’s intrinsic value is estimated at $32.43 per share. This is about 31.4% higher than the current share price, indicating a notable undervaluation based on cash generation potential.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Weyerhaeuser is undervalued by 31.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 928 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Weyerhaeuser.

Approach 2: Weyerhaeuser Price vs Earnings (PE)

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a widely used valuation metric for profitable companies because it relates a company’s share price to its earnings, offering investors a quick way to gauge whether a stock may be over or undervalued relative to its profits. The underlying logic is simple: the more profit a company generates, the more valuable its shares should be.

Determining what counts as a fair or normal PE ratio depends on several factors. Companies with higher earnings growth potential or lower risk profiles typically command higher PE ratios, while mature or riskier companies may trade at lower multiples. For context, growth expectations, business stability, and sector dynamics all influence what investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings.

Weyerhaeuser currently trades at a PE ratio of 48.5x. This stands in sharp contrast to the industry average of 17.0x and the peer group average of 28.0x. At first glance, this might suggest that the stock is expensive. However, headline comparisons like these can be misleading since they ignore company-specific fundamentals.

This is where Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” comes in. The Fair Ratio is designed to capture the nuances missed by simple benchmarks, factoring in Weyerhaeuser’s growth outlook, risks, profit margins, industry context, and market cap. This proprietary approach suggests a Fair Ratio of 43.8x for Weyerhaeuser, much closer to its current PE than the broader averages. Because this metric is tuned to the company’s specific circumstances, it provides a clearer and more holistic benchmark for fair value than industry or peer comparisons alone.

With Weyerhaeuser’s actual PE of 48.5x being only modestly higher than its Fair Ratio of 43.8x, the shares appear slightly expensive but not dramatically so. The valuation, therefore, looks to be about right based on current fundamentals.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1440 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Weyerhaeuser Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives.

Narratives are a simple, intuitive way for you to define your perspective about a company, linking the story you believe in with forecasted financials and a tailored fair value. Instead of treating fair value as a fixed number, Narratives acknowledge that each investor may see Weyerhaeuser differently. You can choose or build a scenario reflecting your own expectations for future revenue, profit margins, risks, and industry trends.

This approach connects the dots between what is happening in the business and what you think the stock is actually worth. It then lets you compare that value to the current share price to help decide when to buy or sell. Narratives on Simply Wall St are easy to use, accessible to everyone in the platform’s Community page, and update automatically as new news or results come in, so your perspective stays relevant as facts change.

For example, some investors currently see Weyerhaeuser’s fair value as high as $38 if they believe in aggressive margin expansion and climate solutions growth. More cautious views set it closer to $29 due to softer lumber demand or international challenges. With Narratives, you are empowered to follow the scenario that matches your own logic and adjust as new events unfold.

Do you think there's more to the story for Weyerhaeuser? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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