Spirit Realty Capital, Inc.

NYSE:SRC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.0b

This company has been acquired

The company may no longer be operating, as it has been acquired. Find out why through their latest events.

Spirit Realty Capital Valuation

Is SRC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SRC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$74.02
Fair Value
42.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: SRC ($42.31) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($74.02)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SRC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SRC?

Key metric: As SRC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SRC. This is calculated by dividing SRC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SRC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio24.1x
EarningsUS$248.00m
Market CapUS$5.99b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SRC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SRC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average49.4x
ADC Agree Realty
42x10.1%US$7.6b
PECO Phillips Edison
72.2x14.4%US$5.1b
NNN NNN REIT
19.3x3.1%US$7.6b
MAC Macerich
64.3x5.3%US$5.3b
SRC Spirit Realty Capital
24.1x-8.7%US$6.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SRC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.1x) compared to the peer average (27.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SRC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Retail REITs Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SITC SITE Centers
1.1x-114.2%US$768.63m
RVIC Retail Value
0.2xn/aUS$5.72m
No more companies available in this PE range
SRC 24.1xIndustry Avg. 34.7xNo. of Companies4PE020406080100+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SRC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.1x) compared to the US Retail REITs industry average (31.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SRC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SRC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.1x
Fair PE Ratio31.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SRC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SRC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
US$42.89
0%
13.6%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
Feb ’26n/a
US$42.89
0%
13.6%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
Jan ’26n/a
US$42.89
0%
13.6%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
Dec ’25n/a
US$42.89
0%
13.6%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
Nov ’25n/a
US$42.89
0%
13.6%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
Oct ’25n/a
US$42.89
0%
13.6%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
Sep ’25n/a
US$42.89
0%
13.6%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
Aug ’25n/a
US$42.89
0%
13.6%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
Jul ’25n/a
US$42.89
0%
13.6%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
Jun ’25n/a
US$42.89
0%
13.6%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
May ’25n/a
US$42.89
0%
13.6%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
Apr ’25n/a
US$42.89
0%
13.6%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
Mar ’25n/a
US$42.89
0%
13.6%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
Feb ’25n/a
US$42.89
0%
13.6%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
Jan ’25US$43.69
US$42.89
-1.8%
13.6%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
Dec ’24US$41.80
US$42.89
+2.6%
13.6%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
Nov ’24US$36.52
US$42.18
+15.5%
14.3%US$58.00US$35.00n/a11
Oct ’24US$33.53
US$42.94
+28.1%
10.8%US$58.00US$36.00n/a16
Sep ’24US$38.65
US$43.60
+12.8%
10.3%US$58.00US$40.00n/a15
Aug ’24US$40.30
US$43.70
+8.4%
10.3%US$58.00US$40.00n/a15
Jul ’24US$39.38
US$43.57
+10.6%
10.4%US$58.00US$39.00n/a15
Jun ’24US$38.58
US$43.96
+14.0%
11.1%US$58.00US$39.00n/a14
May ’24US$37.91
US$44.29
+16.8%
11.2%US$58.00US$38.00n/a14
Apr ’24US$39.84
US$44.67
+12.1%
10.5%US$58.00US$40.00n/a15
Mar ’24US$40.98
US$44.69
+9.0%
11.1%US$58.00US$38.00n/a16
Feb ’24US$43.39
US$44.53
+2.6%
11.3%US$58.00US$38.00n/a17
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts
US$42.89
Fair Value
1.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/01/23 22:47
End of Day Share Price 2024/01/22 00:00
Earnings2023/09/30
Annual Earnings2022/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Spirit Realty Capital, Inc. is covered by 21 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Nathan CrossettBerenberg
Joshua DennerleinBofA Global Research
David CorakB. Riley Securities, Inc.