Simon Property Group (SPG): Revisiting Valuation After Upgraded 2025 Earnings Outlook and Leasing Gains

Simon Property Group (SPG) just raised its 2025 Funds From Operations guidance, pointing to high occupancy and rising rents at its malls and outlets. Strong leasing activity appears to be driving these improved expectations.

See our latest analysis for Simon Property Group.

Simon Property Group’s share price has climbed 5.5% year-to-date, closing at $183.08. Investors have welcomed steady leasing momentum, ongoing strategic acquisitions like Phillips Place, and resilient cash flow that drives long-term value. The stock’s total return, including dividends, has been especially impressive, reaching 6.7% over one year and an outstanding 190% over five years. This underscores building confidence in both the company’s pipeline and its ability to deliver for shareholders.

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With Simon’s shares up strongly and the company’s valuation sitting near recent highs, investors face a key question: Is robust performance already reflected in the price, or could current fundamentals signal a compelling buying opportunity?

Most Popular Narrative: 4.6% Undervalued

The most widely followed narrative sees fair value for Simon Property Group above the latest closing price, suggesting analysts believe there is more upside potential. This view hinges on several moving pieces, from high-profile development projects to substantial dividend policies, making for a complex valuation picture.

Strategic redevelopment and transformation of existing assets into mixed-use, experience-focused environments, such as the ongoing projects and the Brickell City Centre acquisition, target evolving consumer preferences for experience-driven destinations, supporting not only stable rent growth but also incremental revenue from diversified income streams, thus enhancing margins and long-term earnings power.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious about what is powering this bullish target? The narrative hinges on future profit margins and bold redevelopment plans, along with a profit multiple usually reserved for fast-growth sectors. Want to see exactly how all the pieces add up? Unlock the secret drivers behind this valuation because there is more to this price target than meets the eye.

Result: Fair Value of $192 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent retail bankruptcies and elevated redevelopment costs could quickly dampen Simon Property Group’s bullish outlook if these pressures intensify.

Find out about the key risks to this Simon Property Group narrative.

Build Your Own Simon Property Group Narrative

Feel free to dive into the data and connect the dots yourself. Building your own narrative takes just a couple of minutes, letting you take a hands-on approach. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Simon Property Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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