Simon Property Group, Inc.

NYSE:SPG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$84.7b

Simon Property Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Simon Property Group's earnings are forecast to decline at 15.7% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 2.6% per year. EPS is expected to decline by 15.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 100.3% in 3 years.

Key information

-15.7%

Earnings growth rate

-15.69%

EPS growth rate

Retail REITs earnings growth-1.7%
Revenue growth rate2.6%
Future return on equity100.31%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated20 Aug 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Aug 18

SPG: Future Returns Will Balance Strong Leasing Wins With Full Pricing Risk

Simon Property Group's updated analyst price target edges higher to about $233 from $228, with analysts pointing to solid Q2 leasing trends, healthy retail fundamentals and refreshed operating assumptions that slightly offset more conservative revenue growth and discount rate inputs in the model. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Simon Property Group shows a mix of optimism about execution and fundamentals along with more cautious views on valuation and future return potential.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 13

Simon Property Group: The Mall King Is Thriving, Yet I'm Turning Cautious (Rating Downgrade)

Summary Simon Property Group is downgraded to Hold as the stock now reflects fair value, balancing risk and reward. SPG continues to post strong results: Q2 revenue up 19.3%, occupancy at 96%, and FFO per share guidance raised. The company maintains a robust balance sheet, with net debt/EBITDA below 5.0x, $1.02B in cash, and a 4.10% dividend yield. Macro risks and potential rate volatility could pressure valuation, but SPG’s premium portfolio and growth pipeline offer long-term resilience, yet the price seems to have finally caught up to it. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Aug 04

SPG: Future Returns Will Balance Rich Dividend With Full Pricing Risk

The analyst price target for Simon Property Group has edged higher by about $3.50, as analysts factor in updated Q2 results across retail REIT peers, modestly adjusted revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a slightly higher future P/E outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Simon Property Group shows a tight cluster of price targets moving higher, although opinions on the stock's risk or reward are mixed.
Narrative Update • Jul 15

SPG: Future Returns Will Balance Higher Dividends With Full Pricing Risk

The analyst fair value estimate for Simon Property Group has edged up to about $224 from $219, reflecting updated Street price targets clustered around $213 to $236 and analyst views that the stock’s strong fundamentals are now broadly reflected in its valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Simon Property Group shows a fairly tight range of price targets, with most valuations grouped around the low to mid US$200s.
Narrative Update • Jun 30

SPG: Future Returns Will Balance Higher Dividends With Rich Pricing Risk

The analyst price target for Simon Property Group has been increased by about $5 to $219. Analysts attribute this change to expectations of slightly stronger revenue growth, modestly higher profit margins, and a somewhat higher future P/E in their updated models.
Narrative Update • Jun 13

SPG: Future Returns Will Reflect Higher Dividend Payouts And Leadership Transition Uncertainty

The analyst price target for Simon Property Group edges up by $1 to $214.55 as analysts factor in updated FFO estimates, modestly higher fair value, and refreshed models following recent conference takeaways and Q1 results. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Simon Property Group focus on refreshed FFO modeling, Q1 results, and sector wide revisions for U.S. retail REITs. The new US$214.55 average price target sits within a tight range of individual targets from US$199 to US$217, with most analysts maintaining neutral or equal weight type ratings.
Narrative Update • May 30

SPG: Future Returns Will Reflect Healthy Malls Dividend Strength And Leadership Transition Risks

Narrative Update: Simon Property Group Analysts have nudged the updated price target for Simon Property Group higher to $213.55 from $208.55, citing refreshed models after recent Q1 reports across retail REITs and adjustments to estimates that reflect changes in growth, margins, and P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Street research around Simon Property Group has been active, with a series of updated price targets and refreshed models following recent Q4 and Q1 reporting periods across retail REITs. Most of these moves center on adjustments to estimates for net operating income, interest expense, and P/E assumptions, which feed directly into revised valuation views.
Narrative Update • Apr 23

SPG: Future Returns Will Reflect Healthy Malls Buybacks And Leadership Change Risks

Analysts have nudged their blended price target for Simon Property Group higher to $208.55 from $206.30. This reflects recent research that points to updated retail REIT models after Q4 results, stronger mall operating metrics and a reassessment of valuation across the group.
Narrative Update • Apr 05

SPG: Future Returns Will Reflect Strong Malls Buybacks And Leadership Transition

Simon Property Group's fair value estimate edges up to $206.30 from $206.15, reflecting analysts' higher price targets across the Street as they refresh models after Q4 retail REIT updates and factor in solid operating metrics along with modest adjustments to discount rates and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates cluster on the positive side for Simon Property Group, with most firms lifting price targets following Q4 retail REIT reporting and model refreshes.
Narrative Update • Mar 22

SPG: Future Returns Will Reflect Strong Mall Fundamentals And New Buyback Program

Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for Simon Property Group to $206.15 from $205.40, reflecting a series of higher price targets across the Street that are supported by updated retail REIT models, firmer operating metrics, and expectations for steadier revenue growth despite slightly lower profit margin assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Simon Property Group reflects a generally constructive stance on the stock, with higher fair value and price targets supported by updated REIT models, refreshed mall sector views, and revised funds from operations assumptions.
Narrative Update • Mar 07

SPG: Future Returns Will Reflect Mall Strength And Mixed 2026 REIT Sentiment

Analysts have nudged their blended fair value estimate for Simon Property Group to about $205 from roughly $202, reflecting updated Q4 models that factor in slightly lower discount rates, modestly higher revenue growth assumptions, a revised profit margin outlook, and Street price target increases across several firms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Simon Property Group has centered on refreshed models after Q4 reporting season, updated views on mall operating metrics, and shifting expectations for the broader retail REIT group.
Narrative Update • Feb 20

SPG: Future Returns Will Balance Redevelopment Progress And Mixed 2026 REIT Outlook

Our analyst fair value estimate for Simon Property Group has been nudged up by $1.70 to $201.75. This reflects updated modeling as analysts lift price targets following recent sector wide REIT revisions and company specific reassessments around revenue growth, profitability, and forward P/E assumptions.
Narrative Update • Feb 06

SPG: Future Returns Will Reflect Redevelopment And Balanced 2026 REIT Sector Views

Analysts have nudged their price target for Simon Property Group higher to $200.05 from $197.15, citing updated assumptions around modestly stronger revenue growth, a slightly higher discount rate, stable profit margins, and a somewhat lower future P/E multiple, informed by a series of recent target increases across major firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Simon Property Group has become more active, with several firms adjusting price targets and, in some cases, ratings as they refresh models for 2026 and incorporate the latest sector views on U.S. REITs. Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts are lifting price targets into a range that now stretches above the current blended target, reflecting updated assumptions on revenue and profitability that they see as supportive of Simon's valuation.
Narrative Update • Jan 23

SPG: Future Returns Will Reflect Redevelopment And Mixed Analyst 2026 REIT Outlook

Analysts have nudged our fair value estimate for Simon Property Group up by about US$3 to US$197.15, reflecting slightly higher assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E after a series of recent price target increases across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Simon Property Group has centered on refreshed price targets for 2026 and updated sector views within the REIT universe.
Narrative Update • Jan 09

SPG: Future Returns Will Reflect Redevelopment Progress And Anticipated 2026 REIT Turnaround

Narrative Update Our analyst price target framework for Simon Property Group now points to a fair value of US$194.05, a modest US$0.60 adjustment. This reflects analysts factoring in updated REIT models and recent target increases from several firms, which are tied to expectations for a sector turnaround and solid Q3 earnings season commentary.
Narrative Update • Dec 15

SPG: Future Performance Will Reflect Redevelopment Progress And Measured Premium Mall Expansion

Analysts have nudged their consolidated price target for Simon Property Group modestly higher, with multiple firms lifting estimates in the roughly $6 to $10 per share range to reflect strong Q3 REIT earnings, updated sector models, and improved expectations following recent capital markets activity and transactions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a generally constructive outlook on Simon Property Group, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets into the high $180s to low $200s range as they refresh sector models following Q3 results and capital markets activity.
Narrative Update • Dec 01

SPG: Recent Earnings And Premium Retail Expansion Will Shape Share Performance

Analysts have modestly raised their price target for Simon Property Group from $192 to $193.45. This reflects recent upward adjustments in sector models following strong earnings and ongoing positive momentum in real estate investment trusts.
Narrative Update • Nov 17

SPG: New Luxury Project And Dividend Boost Will Influence Investor Sentiment

Analysts have raised their price target for Simon Property Group from $188.40 to $192.00. This reflects recent positive updates to sector models and company fundamentals.
Narrative Update • Nov 03

SPG: Recent Capital Markets Moves Will Shape Mixed-Use Retail Direction

Simon Property Group's analyst price target rose modestly to $188.40 per share from $186.45. Analysts cited recent refinements based on updated earnings projections, profit margins, and adjustments to broader sector valuation models.
Narrative Update • Sep 27

Urban Redevelopment Will Boost Mixed-use Retail Appeal

Analysts raised Simon Property Group’s price target due to stronger Q2 results, improved capital markets activity, and higher near-term FFO estimates, despite some valuation and macro concerns, resulting in a modest increase in consensus fair value from $184.55 to $186.45. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts raised price targets citing recent capital markets activity, positive transactions, and Q2 2025 business refinements impacting forward guidance.
Narrative Update • Sep 12

Urban Redevelopment Will Boost Mixed-use Retail Appeal

Simon Property Group’s consensus price target saw a modest upward revision to $184.55 as analysts updated FY25/FY26 FFO estimates following strong Q2 results and sector-wide REIT outperformance, while some valuation-based downgrades reflect caution amidst macro risks. Analyst Commentary Price target increases by bullish analysts reflect updated FY25 and FY26 Funds From Operations (FFO) estimates following solid Q2 results.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 17

Simon Property Group: Price Drop Is A Major Opportunity For Long-Term Investors

Summary Simon Property Group remains attractive for long-term dividend investors despite recent market volatility and recently hitting a 52-week low share price of $136.34. SPG's strong fundamentals, premium malls in affluent locations, and international expansion position it for growth, with a projected 2.3% FFO growth rate in 2025. The REIT's A-rated balance sheet, robust liquidity, and conservative 62% payout ratio ensure dividend safety and flexibility amid potential economic slowdowns. Trading at a forward P/FFO multiple of 11.82x, SPG offers a well-covered dividend, expansion potential, and strong fundamentals, making it a buy for long-term investors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 24

Simon Property Group: 5.2% Dividend Yield As U.S. Recession Fears Spike

Summary Simon Property Group offers a 5.2% dividend yield that is 148% covered by the low end of its FFO guidance range for 2025. The 15% pullback possibly presents a buying opportunity in a REIT with a fortress balance sheet and healthy retail demand for its Class A malls. SPG boasts $10.1 billion in liquidity, declining long-term debt, and excess free cash flow, supporting potential investments despite economic slowdown risks. With a well-diversified tenant base and positive credit outlook, SPG remains in a strong position amid US recession fears, though retail REIT sentiment may suffer. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 13

Simon Property Group: Price Drop Creates Opportunity

Summary Simon Property Group remains an attractive investment due to its strong dividend yield, robust cash flows, and high occupancy rates, despite recent price drops. SPG's Q4 earnings show solid performance with FFO per share at $3.35, supporting a 5% dividend yield and indicating potential for future dividend raises. The portfolio's high occupancy rates and strategic developments, including new international projects and mixed-use developments, ensure continued growth and resilience. Valuation analysis suggests a 12% upside potential, with a total return potential of 17% when including the 5% dividend yield, making SPG a compelling buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 06

Simon Property Group: The Mall Isn't Dead After Strong Earnings And Continued Dividend Increases

Summary Simon Property Group delivered a top-line beat of $170 million and increased its quarterly dividend, showcasing strong performance in a post-pandemic environment. SPG's occupancy rates and base minimum rent per sq foot are rising, indicating high demand for physical retail spaces despite e-commerce growth. SPG's price to FFO ratio is attractive compared to peers, and the dividend yield of 4.85% is well-covered, suggesting potential for future increases. I remain bullish on SPG for 2025, expecting continued capital appreciation and income generation as the company proves the resilience of Class A malls. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 17

SPG: The Common Shares Are Our Preferred Choice, Though They Are No Longer A Bargain

Summary Simon Property Group's fundamentals remain solid, with increased leasing volumes, higher occupancy, and positive retail sales, but e-commerce competition and high interest rates pose risks. The company's online platform, ShopSimon, shows potential but requires significant growth to impact overall performance, currently lagging behind major e-commerce players. Simon's $4 billion development pipeline, including residential projects, and strategic tenant swaps aim to enhance long-term growth despite challenges in physical retail. Given current valuations and increased risks, Simon Property Group's common shares are rated "Hold," while preferred shares SPG-J are seen as overvalued. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 12

Simon Property Group: Still An Opportunistic Buy For Long-Term Investors

Summary Simon Property Group's strong fundamentals, frequent dividend increases, and high-quality property locations in affluent areas support a buy rating with potential upside over the next 12-24 months. Despite a 39.27% increase this year, SPG remains attractively valued compared to peers, with a forward P/FFO multiple of 14.14x and a potential price target of $204. SPG's robust Q3 performance, with increased FFO and revenue, along with strong leasing volumes and occupancy rates, indicates continued growth and resilience. The company's enhanced balance sheet, including $11.1 billion in liquidity and strategic debt management, ensures financial stability and capacity for future acquisitions and developments. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 14

Simon Property Group Is Still Undervalued

Summary Simon Property Group is trading at a discount despite improved fundamentals, making it an attractive investment opportunity with strong earnings growth potential. Malls are regaining popularity, especially among Gen Z, leading to higher occupancy rates and increased lease rates for SPG. SPG's financials have fully rebounded post-COVID, with NOI, dividends, and earnings surpassing pre-pandemic levels, yet the stock remains undervalued. With a favorable leasing environment and solid growth prospects, SPG is poised for stable 4%-5% growth, justifying a fair value multiple of 18X Real Estate FFO. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:SPG - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20287,1822,444N/A5,0876
12/31/20276,9222,2861,3034,85911
12/31/20266,6542,1391,1184,6076
6/30/20266,9414,6173,2184,123N/A
3/31/20266,6494,6903,2304,143N/A
12/31/20256,3654,6243,2024,137N/A
9/30/20256,1552,2433,1214,018N/A
6/30/20256,0342,1123,1424,021N/A
3/31/20255,9942,0503,0463,869N/A
12/31/20245,9642,3683,0593,815N/A
9/30/20245,9092,4483,0503,766N/A
6/30/20245,8392,5673,0523,809N/A
3/31/20245,7512,5603,0853,875N/A
12/31/20235,6592,2803,1383,931N/A
9/30/20235,5312,2063,0273,826N/A
6/30/20235,4362,1513,1043,832N/A
3/31/20235,3462,1613,1423,803N/A
12/31/20225,2912,1363,1173,767N/A
9/30/20225,2161,9663,1463,719N/A
6/30/20225,1962,1073,0443,652N/A
3/31/20225,1712,2272,9863,554N/A
12/31/20215,1152,2463,1093,637N/A
9/30/20214,9202,0153,1403,648N/A
6/30/20214,6841,4813,0153,390N/A
3/31/20214,4901,1172,0752,461N/A
12/31/20204,6021,1091,8432,327N/A
9/30/20204,9601,3481,7422,391N/A
6/30/20205,3141,7461,9242,735N/A
3/31/20205,6481,987N/A3,712N/A
12/31/20195,6712,098N/A3,808N/A
9/30/20195,6352,301N/A3,848N/A
6/30/20195,6072,313N/A3,802N/A
3/31/20195,5982,365N/A3,745N/A
12/31/20185,6452,437N/A3,751N/A
9/30/20185,5942,295N/A3,626N/A
6/30/20185,6112,253N/A3,621N/A
3/31/20185,5872,088N/A3,652N/A
12/31/20175,5271,945N/A3,594N/A
9/30/20175,5391,768N/A3,559N/A
6/30/20175,4921,759N/A3,488N/A
3/31/20175,4441,832N/A3,438N/A
12/31/20165,4351,836N/A3,373N/A
9/30/20165,3881,833N/A3,339N/A
6/30/20165,3511,749N/A3,235N/A
3/31/20165,3871,766N/A3,070N/A
12/31/20155,2581,824N/A3,025N/A
9/30/20155,1741,837N/A3,017N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SPG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-15.7% per year).

Earnings vs Market: SPG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-15.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SPG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SPG's revenue (2.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SPG's revenue (2.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SPG's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (100.3%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/08/20 21:59
End of Day Share Price 2026/08/20 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Simon Property Group, Inc. is covered by 43 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jacob KilsteinArgus Research Company
Rich HightowerBarclays
Richard HightowerBarclays