OUTFRONT Media (OUT): Revisiting Valuation After a Strong Multi‑Month Share Price Rally

OUTFRONT Media (OUT) has quietly delivered a strong run lately, with the stock up about 10% this month and more than 30% over the past 3 months, outpacing many real estate peers.

See our latest analysis for OUTFRONT Media.

At a share price of $24.51, OUTFRONT’s recent 1 month share price return of just over 10% and robust 1 year total shareholder return near the mid 40s suggest that momentum is building as investors warm to its recovery story.

If OUTFRONT’s rebound has caught your eye, this could be a good moment to see what else is setting up for a strong run in fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

But with the share price now above the average analyst target yet still trading at a hefty discount to some intrinsic value estimates, is this a fresh buying opportunity, or is the market already banking on OUTFRONT’s next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 14.9% Overvalued

With OUTFRONT Media last closing at $24.51 against a most popular narrative fair value of about $21.33, expectations already embed a meaningful premium.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $19.5 for OUTFRONT Media based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.0 billion, earnings will come to $194.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 23.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.1%.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of steady revenue climb, margin rebuild, and future earnings multiple are baked into that outlook? The narrative lays it all out.

Result: Fair Value of $21.33 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, structural pressure on traditional billboards and capital intensive digital rollouts could crimp margins and undermine the upbeat growth assumptions in the prevailing narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this OUTFRONT Media narrative.

Another Lens on Valuation

While the popular narrative flags OUTFRONT as 14.9% overvalued versus its $21.33 fair value, our DCF model presents a very different picture, suggesting shares are trading about 40.5% below intrinsic value at roughly $41.22. Which story do you trust more: sentiment or cash flows?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own OUTFRONT Media Narrative

If you see the story differently, or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a customized view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your OUTFRONT Media research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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