Medical Properties Trust, Inc.

NYSE:MPW Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.5b

Medical Properties Trust Valuation

Is MPW undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MPW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MPW ($4.31) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($6.2)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MPW is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MPW?

Key metric: As MPW is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for MPW. This is calculated by dividing MPW's market cap by their current revenue.
What is MPW's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio3.9x
SalesUS$660.17m
Market CapUS$2.55b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MPW's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for MPW vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.3x
NHI National Health Investors
10.7x13.7%US$3.5b
LTC LTC Properties
8.9x-2.4%US$1.8b
AHR American Healthcare REIT
2.2x9.7%US$4.4b
SILA Sila Realty Trust
7.4x9.3%US$1.4b
MPW Medical Properties Trust
3.9x9.1%US$2.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MPW is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.9x) compared to the peer average (7.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does MPW's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Health Care REITs Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
DHC Diversified Healthcare Trust
0.4x5.3%US$588.71m
HLTC National Healthcare Properties
0.1xn/aUS$52.72m
GBCS Selectis Health
0.1xn/aUS$4.17m
No more companies available in this PS range
MPW 3.9xIndustry Avg. 5.6xNo. of Companies3PS02.85.68.411.214+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MPW is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.9x) compared to the US Health Care REITs industry average (5.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MPW's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MPW PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.9x
Fair PS Ratio5.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MPW is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MPW forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$4.31
US$5.06
+17.5%
25.4%US$7.00US$3.00n/a8
Nov ’25US$4.51
US$5.13
+13.6%
23.3%US$7.00US$3.50n/a8
Oct ’25US$5.77
US$5.13
-11.2%
23.3%US$7.00US$3.50n/a8
Sep ’25US$4.50
US$4.94
+9.7%
19.2%US$7.00US$3.50n/a8
Aug ’25US$4.63
US$4.88
+5.4%
18.9%US$7.00US$4.00n/a8
Jul ’25US$4.09
US$4.89
+19.7%
17.8%US$7.00US$4.00n/a9
Jun ’25US$5.36
US$5.12
-4.5%
17.0%US$7.00US$4.00n/a9
May ’25US$4.63
US$4.96
+7.0%
18.2%US$7.00US$4.00n/a10
Apr ’25US$4.51
US$4.56
+1.1%
29.4%US$7.00US$2.00n/a9
Mar ’25US$4.38
US$4.51
+2.9%
28.5%US$7.00US$2.00n/a10
Feb ’25US$3.26
US$5.27
+61.7%
42.1%US$10.00US$2.00n/a11
Jan ’25US$4.91
US$7.00
+42.6%
45.1%US$15.00US$4.00n/a11
Dec ’24US$5.21
US$7.00
+34.4%
45.1%US$15.00US$4.00n/a11
Nov ’24US$4.66
US$8.23
+76.6%
38.9%US$15.00US$4.00US$4.5111
Oct ’24US$5.45
US$9.27
+70.1%
26.5%US$15.00US$6.00US$5.7711
Sep ’24US$7.29
US$9.64
+32.2%
23.1%US$15.00US$7.00US$4.5011
Aug ’24US$9.92
US$11.67
+17.6%
23.3%US$18.00US$9.00US$4.6312
Jul ’24US$9.26
US$11.58
+25.1%
24.3%US$18.00US$8.00US$4.0912
Jun ’24US$8.17
US$11.43
+39.9%
25.3%US$18.00US$8.00US$5.3614
May ’24US$8.59
US$11.79
+37.2%
26.1%US$18.00US$8.00US$4.6314
Apr ’24US$8.22
US$12.69
+54.4%
23.6%US$18.00US$8.00US$4.5113
Mar ’24US$10.07
US$14.46
+43.6%
15.7%US$18.00US$10.00US$4.3813
Feb ’24US$12.93
US$15.38
+19.0%
15.2%US$18.00US$10.00US$3.2613
Jan ’24US$11.14
US$15.46
+38.8%
18.4%US$19.00US$10.00US$4.9113
Dec ’23US$12.95
US$16.54
+27.7%
14.0%US$19.00US$10.00US$5.2113
Nov ’23US$11.55
US$16.69
+44.5%
15.3%US$20.00US$10.00US$4.6613

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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