Macerich (NYSE:MAC) - Share price, News & Analysis

MAC fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	0/6
Dividends	4/6

MAC Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 69.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 38.77% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Unstable dividend track record

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Macerich Competitors

Realty Income

NYSE:O

US$41.2b

Simon Property Group

NYSE:SPG

US$40.5b

National Retail Properties

NYSE:NNN

US$7.6b

InvenTrust Properties

NYSE:IVT

US$2.0b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Macerich
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$11.43
52 Week High	US$22.88
52 Week Low	US$10.97
Beta	1.88
1 Month Change	-15.02%
3 Month Change	-22.35%
1 Year Change	-23.60%
3 Year Change	-71.03%
5 Year Change	-80.14%
Change since IPO	-41.39%

Recent News & Updates

May 24

I Remain Cautiously Optimistic On Macerich

Since my article on The Macerich Company one year ago, its price has risen and fallen back to its previous level. However, MAC is in a much stronger position, and operational improvements and deleveraging have both seen successful initial results. MAC should also be well-positioned to deal with rising inflation, interest rates, and a potential recession. Using NAV and FFO methods, MAC has an upside of over 140%, with two very strong catalysts. However, given management, debt levels, and a potential recession, MAC still remains a high-risk, high-reward investment.

Shareholder Returns

	MAC	US REITs	US Market
7D	-16.4%	-0.7%	-4.0%
1Y	-23.6%	-1.3%	-13.2%

Return vs Industry: MAC underperformed the US REITs industry which returned -2.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MAC underperformed the US Market which returned -12.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MAC's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MAC volatility
MAC Average Weekly Movement	7.6%
REITs Industry Average Movement	4.4%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: MAC is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MAC's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1965	640	Tom O'Hern	https://www.macerich.com

Macerich is a fully integrated, self-managed and self-administered real estate investment trust, which focuses on the acquisition, leasing, management, development and redevelopment of regional malls throughout the United States. Macerich currently owns 51 million square feet of real estate consisting primarily of interests in 47 regional shopping centers. Macerich specializes in successful retail properties in many of the country's most attractive, densely populated markets with significant presence in the West Coast, Arizona, Chicago and the Metro New York to Washington, DC corridor.

Macerich Fundamentals Summary

How do Macerich's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MAC fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$2.55b
Earnings (TTM)	US$39.82m
Revenue (TTM)	US$862.68m

61.6x

P/E Ratio

2.8x

P/S Ratio

Is MAC overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MAC income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$862.68m
Cost of Revenue	US$382.20m
Gross Profit	US$480.48m
Other Expenses	US$440.66m
Earnings	US$39.82m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.19
Gross Margin	55.70%
Net Profit Margin	4.62%
Debt/Equity Ratio	148.2%

How did MAC perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

5.2%

Current Dividend Yield

28%

Payout Ratio

Valuation

Is Macerich undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: MAC ($11.43) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($36.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MAC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: MAC is poor value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (61.6x) compared to the US REITs industry average (32.4x).

PE vs Market: MAC is poor value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (61.6x) compared to the US market (15.1x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: MAC is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.6x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: MAC is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.8x) compared to the US REITs industry average (1.6x).

Future Growth

How is Macerich forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

38.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MAC's forecast earnings growth (38.8% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: MAC's earnings (38.8% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (12.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MAC's revenue (2.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MAC's revenue (2.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MAC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (0.2%).

Past Performance

How has Macerich performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-53.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MAC has a large one-off gain of $97.6M impacting its March 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: MAC became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MAC's earnings have declined by 53.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: MAC has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: MAC has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the REITs industry (69.5%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: MAC's Return on Equity (1.5%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Macerich's financial position?

Financial Health Score

0/6

Financial Health Score 0/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: MAC's short term assets ($348.0M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($909.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: MAC's short term assets ($348.0M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($4.2B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: MAC's net debt to equity ratio (144.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: MAC's debt to equity ratio has increased from 114.8% to 148.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: MAC's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (6.5%).

Interest Coverage: MAC's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (0.8x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Macerich current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

5.25%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: MAC's dividend (5.25%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.57%).

High Dividend: MAC's dividend (5.25%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.05%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: MAC's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: MAC's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (27.7%), MAC's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (44.7%), MAC's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Tom O'Hern (65 yo)

3.33yrs

Tenure

US$8,246,379

Compensation

Mr. Thomas E. O'Hern, also known as Tom, CPA, has been Director at Macerich Company since June 22, 2018 and its Chief Executive Officer since January 1, 2019. He served as the Chief Financial Officer and T...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Tom's total compensation ($USD8.25M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.83M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Tom's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MAC's management team is considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: MAC's board of directors are considered experienced (7 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: MAC insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 3.4%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31