Last Update 05 Apr 26

Fair value Increased 0.88%

MAC: Path Forward Execution And Deleveraging Shape Balanced Outlook For Future Returns

Analysts nudged Macerich's fair value estimate to $21.38 from $21.19, citing updated models that reflect improved profit margin assumptions, a lower discount rate, and recent price target increases across the Street.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on Macerich clusters around higher price targets and rating changes, with opinions split between optimism on execution and caution on valuation and sector fundamentals.

To help frame what this means for you, it is useful to separate the key bullish and bearish takeaways that underpin these updates.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see the company's multi year "Path Forward Plan" as tracking ahead of expectations, which supports confidence in management's ability to execute on its operational roadmap.
Some point to accelerated asset dispositions and further deleveraging as important for balance sheet progress, which they view as supportive of higher equity valuations over time.
There is a view that improving net operating income and a potential inflection in funds from operations in 2026 could justify higher trading multiples if execution stays on track.
Several bullish analysts have boosted price targets and moved ratings higher, reflecting a more constructive stance on how current fundamentals line up with Macerich's valuation.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts with Sell or Underweight ratings acknowledge recent model updates and higher price targets, but still see limited upside relative to their assessment of risk.
Some remain cautious that, even with revised targets, the shares may already reflect a lot of expected execution on the business plan, which can cap potential re rating if progress slows.
There is concern that sector level headwinds, including views that parts of the shopping center REIT group are near peak fundamentals, may restrain how much valuation can expand for Macerich.
Analysts with more guarded views prefer to stay on the sidelines, keeping less favorable ratings while acknowledging incremental improvements in their models and price targets.

What's in the News

The company reported that from October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025 it repurchased 0 shares for $0 million under its ongoing buyback program. (Key Developments)
Under the full authorization announced on February 13, 2017, Macerich has repurchased 3,627,390 shares, representing 2.54% of shares, for a total of $221.3 million. (Key Developments)
The disclosed buyback activity indicates that the current authorization has been fully utilized, with no remaining capacity for additional repurchases under this specific program in the most recently reported quarter. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Updated slightly higher to $21.38 from $21.19.
Discount Rate: Adjusted slightly lower to 8.81% from 8.86%, which gives a bit more weight to future cash flows in the valuation model.
Revenue Growth: The assumed long-term revenue trend now reflects a 1.96% annual decline, compared with a 1.81% annual decline previously.
Profit Margin: The long-term profit margin assumption is now 3.41%, up from 1.72%, indicating a higher expected share of revenue converting to profit in the model.
Future P/E: The forward P/E assumption has been reduced to 221.1x from 433.9x, pointing to a less demanding valuation multiple in the updated framework.

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Key Takeaways

Experiential retail strategies and proactive leasing are driving stronger tenant demand, higher rents, and increased property traffic across top-performing assets.
Strategic acquisitions and asset dispositions are shifting focus to high-quality, urban malls, enhancing earnings stability and long-term portfolio value.
Heavy debt, exposure to struggling retail markets, and ongoing tenant challenges threaten revenue stability and may limit Macerich's ability to grow earnings and margins.

Catalysts

About Macerich

Macerich is a fully integrated, self-managed, self-administered real estate investment trust (REIT).What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Accelerated leasing activity, including a record pace of new deal signings and strong LOI pipeline, is driving higher leasing spreads and sustained tenant demand; this supports significant NOI and revenue growth as new tenants open and backfilled spaces (especially former Forever 21) achieve higher rental rates.
The focus on experiential and destination-oriented retail (e.g., DICK'S House of Sport, Cheesecake Factory, entertainment concepts) is revitalizing consumer engagement and increasing traffic, positioning the portfolio to benefit from experience-driven spending and capturing higher net margins over time.
Strategic acquisitions like Crabtree Mall in high-growth, supply-constrained markets are expected to meaningfully boost future revenues by increasing permanent occupancy, elevating rent profiles, and leveraging Macerich's operational platform to capture embedded NOI growth.
Ongoing asset dispositions and disciplined portfolio refinement are concentrating capital in top-performing, high-barrier, urban and coastal assets-enhancing pricing power, stabilizing cash flows, and allowing for continued improvements in balance sheet strength and lower interest expense, positively impacting net earnings.
Increasing integration of omni-channel retail, with national brands proactively seeking space in well-located malls for showrooms, logistics, and experiential formats, is fueling ongoing rent growth and reduced vacancy risk, resulting in a higher-quality earnings profile for the long term.

Macerich Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Macerich's revenue will decrease by 2.0% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -19.0% today to 3.4% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $33.5 million (and earnings per share of $0.11) by about April 2029, up from -$197.9 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $53.9 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $22.6 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 221.2x on those 2029 earnings, up from -25.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Retail REITs industry at 26.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.59% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.81%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The ongoing shift to e-commerce and changing consumer preferences continue to create secular headwinds against traditional mall retail, which may limit long-term foot traffic growth and dampen demand for large-format retail spaces in Macerich's core portfolio, potentially pressuring revenue and NOI growth.
Macerich remains highly leveraged (with net debt to EBITDA at 7.9x) and reliant on significant asset dispositions and refinancing in the next 1–2 years; if capital markets tighten or asset sales are delayed, rising interest costs and refinancing risks could squeeze net margins and negatively impact earnings.
A substantial portion of Macerich's asset base is still concentrated in California and other challenged brick-and-mortar retail markets, increasing exposure to tenant distress, regional economic downturns, and declining property values-which could result in lower occupancy and stagnating or declining revenues.
Despite positive recent leasing momentum, backfilling anchor spaces and converting temporary tenants to permanent status require elevated capital expenditures (CapEx) and tenant allowances; if leasing & redevelopment prove costlier or slower than anticipated, this could compress net margins and slow earnings growth.
Many legacy mall retailers, such as Forever 21 and Claire's, remain financially vulnerable, with continued tenant bankruptcies and store closures raising the risk of rising vacancies, bad debt, and reduced rental collections-directly impacting both revenue stability and NOI predictability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $21.38 for Macerich based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $25.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $17.0.
In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $981.2 million, earnings will come to $33.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 221.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.8%.
Given the current share price of $19.53, the analyst price target of $21.38 is 8.6% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Experiential Retail Trends Will Revitalize Urban Leasing