Last Update 07 May 26

MAC: Path Forward Execution And Deleveraging May Support Balanced Repricing Ahead

Analysts have raised their average price target for Macerich by a few dollars to reflect recent target increases across several research firms, citing progress on the company's multi year "Path Forward Plan," asset sales, and balance sheet improvement as key supports for the updated view.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates present a mixed picture on Macerich, with several price target increases and a couple of rating changes that highlight both improving execution and ongoing debates about valuation and risk.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight progress on the multi year "Path Forward Plan," pointing to execution that is described as tracking ahead of expectations and supporting a more constructive view on the stock.
Some see asset dispositions and balance sheet deleveraging as key drivers that could support higher valuation multiples if management continues to recycle capital and manage leverage prudently.
The upgrade to an Overweight rating, with a cited US$25 price target, reflects optimism that improving net operating income and an expected inflection in funds from operations in 2026 could support a re rating of the shares.
Price target increases clustered in the US$17 to US$21 range indicate that several bullish analysts are adjusting their models to reflect updated assumptions around execution, capital recycling, and earnings power.

Bearish Takeaways

Some bearish analysts retain cautious ratings even while lifting price targets, signaling that, in their view, the current valuation already reflects much of the expected benefit from the "Path Forward Plan."
The maintained Sell rating alongside a higher price target at Goldman Sachs suggests ongoing concern around risk reward, with the stock seen as less attractive compared with other opportunities in the sector.
JPMorgan, while raising its price target to US$19 from US$18, keeps an Underweight rating, indicating that its updated model still points to a less favorable risk profile versus peers despite incremental improvements.
Neutral ratings tied to mid range price targets, such as the US$21 level, show that some bearish analysts see balanced upside and downside, with questions remaining around execution, long term growth, and how much of the potential is already reflected in the share price.

What's in the News

Between October 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025, Macerich did not repurchase any shares under its existing buyback authorization, with 0 shares repurchased for US$0 million in that period (company disclosure).
As of December 31, 2025, the company had completed repurchases totaling 3,627,390 shares under the buyback program first announced on February 13, 2017 (company disclosure).
The completed repurchases represent 2.54% of the company, with an aggregate spend of US$221.3 million under the 2017 buyback authorization (company disclosure).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: $21.63 remains unchanged, indicating no adjustment to the central valuation figure in this update.
Discount Rate: Discount Rate has fallen slightly from 8.69% to 8.69%, a minimal refinement that has only a small impact on valuation math.
Revenue Growth: Revenue growth assumption is steady at a 1.96% decline, so expectations for top line trends are unchanged in this model refresh.
Net Profit Margin: Net profit margin stays essentially flat at 3.41%, with rounding differences only, so the earnings efficiency assumption is intact.
Future P/E: Future P/E moves fractionally from 223.0x to 223.0x, a very small technical adjustment that does not materially change the implied earnings multiple.

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Key Takeaways

Experiential retail strategies and proactive leasing are driving stronger tenant demand, higher rents, and increased property traffic across top-performing assets.
Strategic acquisitions and asset dispositions are shifting focus to high-quality, urban malls, enhancing earnings stability and long-term portfolio value.
Heavy debt, exposure to struggling retail markets, and ongoing tenant challenges threaten revenue stability and may limit Macerich's ability to grow earnings and margins.

Catalysts

About Macerich

Macerich is a fully integrated, self-managed, self-administered real estate investment trust (REIT).What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Accelerated leasing activity, including a record pace of new deal signings and strong LOI pipeline, is driving higher leasing spreads and sustained tenant demand; this supports significant NOI and revenue growth as new tenants open and backfilled spaces (especially former Forever 21) achieve higher rental rates.
The focus on experiential and destination-oriented retail (e.g., DICK'S House of Sport, Cheesecake Factory, entertainment concepts) is revitalizing consumer engagement and increasing traffic, positioning the portfolio to benefit from experience-driven spending and capturing higher net margins over time.
Strategic acquisitions like Crabtree Mall in high-growth, supply-constrained markets are expected to meaningfully boost future revenues by increasing permanent occupancy, elevating rent profiles, and leveraging Macerich's operational platform to capture embedded NOI growth.
Ongoing asset dispositions and disciplined portfolio refinement are concentrating capital in top-performing, high-barrier, urban and coastal assets-enhancing pricing power, stabilizing cash flows, and allowing for continued improvements in balance sheet strength and lower interest expense, positively impacting net earnings.
Increasing integration of omni-channel retail, with national brands proactively seeking space in well-located malls for showrooms, logistics, and experiential formats, is fueling ongoing rent growth and reduced vacancy risk, resulting in a higher-quality earnings profile for the long term.

Macerich Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Macerich's revenue will decrease by 2.0% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -19.0% today to 3.4% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $33.5 million (and earnings per share of $0.11) by about May 2029, up from -$197.9 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $57.0 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $23.9 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 223.1x on those 2029 earnings, up from -29.2x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Retail REITs industry at 24.3x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.59% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.69%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The ongoing shift to e-commerce and changing consumer preferences continue to create secular headwinds against traditional mall retail, which may limit long-term foot traffic growth and dampen demand for large-format retail spaces in Macerich's core portfolio, potentially pressuring revenue and NOI growth.
Macerich remains highly leveraged (with net debt to EBITDA at 7.9x) and reliant on significant asset dispositions and refinancing in the next 1–2 years; if capital markets tighten or asset sales are delayed, rising interest costs and refinancing risks could squeeze net margins and negatively impact earnings.
A substantial portion of Macerich's asset base is still concentrated in California and other challenged brick-and-mortar retail markets, increasing exposure to tenant distress, regional economic downturns, and declining property values-which could result in lower occupancy and stagnating or declining revenues.
Despite positive recent leasing momentum, backfilling anchor spaces and converting temporary tenants to permanent status require elevated capital expenditures (CapEx) and tenant allowances; if leasing & redevelopment prove costlier or slower than anticipated, this could compress net margins and slow earnings growth.
Many legacy mall retailers, such as Forever 21 and Claire's, remain financially vulnerable, with continued tenant bankruptcies and store closures raising the risk of rising vacancies, bad debt, and reduced rental collections-directly impacting both revenue stability and NOI predictability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $21.62 for Macerich based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $25.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $17.0.
In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $981.2 million, earnings will come to $33.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 223.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.7%.
Given the current share price of $22.23, the analyst price target of $21.62 is 2.8% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Experiential Retail Trends Will Revitalize Urban Leasing