NYSE:FOR

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Forestar Group Inc. operates as a real estate lot development company.

Snowflake

Fundamentals

High growth potential and fair value.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Forestar Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: FOR has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

3.9%

FOR

1.2%

US Real Estate

0.3%

US Market


1 Year Return

30.0%

FOR

11.3%

US Real Estate

12.5%

US Market

Return vs Industry: FOR exceeded the US Real Estate industry which returned 11.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: FOR exceeded the US Market which returned 12.5% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

FORIndustryMarket
7 Day3.9%1.2%0.3%
30 Day8.6%7.1%4.1%
90 Day4.7%7.6%5.6%
1 Year30.0%30.0%12.3%11.3%15.0%12.5%
3 Year59.5%59.5%33.9%30.7%49.1%39.4%
5 Year19.2%19.2%11.7%8.1%62.8%44.7%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Forestar Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Forestar Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

25.38x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate FOR's fair value to establish if it is undervalued.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate FOR's fair value to establish if it is undervalued.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: FOR is good value based on its PE Ratio (25.4x) compared to the Real Estate industry average (25.4x).

PE vs Market: FOR is poor value based on its PE Ratio (25.4x) compared to the US market (18.3x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: FOR is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.6x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: FOR is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.2x) compared to the US Real Estate industry average (1.6x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Forestar Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

39.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FOR's forecast earnings growth (39.8% per year) is above the savings rate (2.7%).

Earnings vs Market: FOR's earnings (39.8% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: FOR's revenue (38.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FOR's revenue (38.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FOR's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (7.8%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Forestar Group performed over the past 5 years?

39.0%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: FOR has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: FOR's current net profit margins (7.7%) are lower than last year (87.9%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: FOR's earnings have grown significantly by 39% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: FOR's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: FOR had negative earnings growth (-64%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Real Estate industry average (-28.2%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: FOR's Return on Equity (4.5%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Forestar Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: FOR's short term assets ($386.0M) exceeds its short term liabilities ($96.4M)

Long Term Liabilities: FOR's short term assets (386.0M) do not cover its long term liabilities (550.4M)


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: FOR's debt to equity ratio (56.9%) is considered high

Reducing Debt: FOR's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 57.6% to 56.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: FOR's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: FOR earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: FOR has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: FOR's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.8x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Forestar Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

companyn/amarketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage2.2%forecastin3Years0%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate FOR's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate FOR's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if FOR's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if FOR's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of FOR's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Forestar Group's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

7.5yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Dan Bartok (63yo)

1.9yrs

Tenure

US$961,930

Compensation

Mr. Daniel C. Bartok, also known as Dan, has been Chief Executive Officer of Forestar Group Inc since December 29, 2017. Mr. Bartok joins Forestar Group Inc with more than 35 years of experience in real es ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Dan's total compensation ($USD961.93K) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.64M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Dan's compensation with company performance.


Management Age and Tenure

7.5yrs

Average Tenure

60yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: FOR's management team is seasoned and experienced (7.5 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

2.1yrs

Average Tenure

71yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: FOR's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.1 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

BuyUS$105,656,25001 Oct 19
D.R. Horton, Inc.
EntityCompany
Shares6,037,500
Max PriceUS$17.50
BuyUS$8,87519 Jun 19
Daniel Bartok
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
Chief Executive Officer
Shares500
Max PriceUS$17.75
BuyUS$14,50026 Dec 18
Daniel Bartok
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
Chief Executive Officer
Shares1,000
Max PriceUS$14.50
BuyUS$328,75019 Dec 18
M. Hudson
EntityIndividual
Shares25,000
Max PriceUS$13.15
BuyUS$13,99317 Dec 18
Daniel Bartok
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
Chief Executive Officer
Shares1,000
Max PriceUS$13.99
BuyUS$15,81003 Dec 18
Daniel Bartok
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
Chief Executive Officer
Shares1,000
Max PriceUS$15.81
BuyUS$63,21929 Nov 18
Donald Tomnitz
EntityIndividual
Role
Chairman of the Board
Executive Chairman
Shares3,915
Max PriceUS$16.19

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • Don Tomnitz (71yo)

    Executive Chairman

    • Tenure: 2.1yrs
    • Compensation: US$609.09k
  • Bill Wheat (53yo)

    Principal Financial Officer

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Michael Quinley (57yo)

    President of East Region

    • Tenure: 2.1yrs
    • Compensation: US$657.00k
  • Tom Burleson

    President of West Region

    • Tenure: 16.8yrs
  • Mary Cowser

    Senior Vice President of Real Estate Market Research & Investment

    • Tenure: 12.8yrs
  • Matt Stark

    Senior VP & General Counsel

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Dan Bartok (63yo)

    Chief Executive Officer

    • Tenure: 1.9yrs
    • Compensation: US$961.93k
  • Thomas Montano

    VP & Corporate Secretary

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Aron Odom

    Principal Accounting Officer

    • Tenure: 0yrs

Board Members

  • Don Tomnitz (71yo)

    Executive Chairman

    • Tenure: 2.1yrs
    • Compensation: US$609.09k
  • Samuel Fuller (76yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 2.1yrs
    • Compensation: US$50.63k
  • Lisa Jamieson

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 0.3yrs
  • Rick Ringler (71yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 2.1yrs
    • Compensation: US$50.63k
  • Donald Spitzer (69yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 2.1yrs
    • Compensation: US$50.63k

Company Information

Forestar Group Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Forestar Group Inc.
  • Ticker: FOR
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1955
  • Industry: Real Estate Development
  • Sector: Real Estate
  • Market Cap: US$957.067m
  • Shares outstanding: 48.00m
  • Website: https://www.forestar.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Forestar Group Inc.
  • 2221 East Lamar Boulevard
  • Suite 790
  • Arlington
  • Texas
  • 76006
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
FORNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDDec 2007
4F31DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURDec 2007

Biography

Forestar Group Inc. operates as a real estate lot development company. It engages in the acquisition, entitlement, and development of infrastructure for single-family residential communities. Forestar Grou ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/11/11 23:59
End of Day Share Price2019/11/11 00:00
Earnings2019/09/30
Annual Earnings2019/09/30


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.