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FOR

Forestar Group NYSE:FOR Stock Report

Last Price

US$11.76

Market Cap

US$585.2m

7D

-1.7%

1Y

-38.1%

Updated

28 Sep, 2022

Data

Company Financials +

Forestar Group Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Forestar Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$11.76
52 Week HighUS$22.60
52 Week LowUS$11.22
Beta1.78
1 Month Change-6.67%
3 Month Change-14.10%
1 Year Change-38.07%
3 Year Change-35.35%
5 Year Change-28.07%
Change since IPO-48.87%

Recent News & Updates

Jul 26
Forestar Group Inc. (NYSE:FOR) Analysts Are Reducing Their Forecasts For Next Year

Forestar Group Inc. (NYSE:FOR) Analysts Are Reducing Their Forecasts For Next Year

Market forces rained on the parade of Forestar Group Inc. ( NYSE:FOR ) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded...

Shareholder Returns

FORUS Real EstateUS Market
7D-1.7%-3.2%-2.0%
1Y-38.1%-44.8%-20.3%

Return vs Industry: FOR exceeded the US Real Estate industry which returned -46.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: FOR underperformed the US Market which returned -22.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is FOR's price volatile compared to industry and market?
FOR volatility
FOR Average Weekly Movement5.6%
Real Estate Industry Average Movement7.6%
Market Average Movement6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.8%

Stable Share Price: FOR is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: FOR's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
n/a312Dan Bartokhttps://www.forestar.com

Forestar Group Inc. operates as a residential lot development company in the United States. The acquires land and develops infrastructure for single-family residential communities. It sells its residential single-family finished lots to homebuilders.

Forestar Group Fundamentals Summary

How do Forestar Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
FOR fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$585.17m
Earnings (TTM)US$172.00m
Revenue (TTM)US$1.56b

3.4x

P/E Ratio

0.4x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
FOR income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$1.56b
Cost of RevenueUS$1.25b
Gross ProfitUS$310.70m
Other ExpensesUS$138.70m
EarningsUS$172.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Nov 09, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)3.46
Gross Margin19.96%
Net Profit Margin11.05%
Debt/Equity Ratio61.5%

How did FOR perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is FOR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FOR?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

FOR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA5.2x
PEG Ratio-0.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FOR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

FOR PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for FOR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.3x
MLP Maui Land & Pineapple Company
30.4xn/aUS$168.6m
AXR AMREP
3.8xn/aUS$60.9m
HHC Howard Hughes
19.6x18.9%US$2.8b
STRS Stratus Properties
3.3xn/aUS$196.9m
FOR Forestar Group
3.4x-24.2%US$585.2m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FOR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.4x) compared to the peer average (14.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FOR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Real Estate Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FOR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.4x) compared to the US Real Estate industry average (7.4x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FOR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FOR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio3.4x
Fair PE Ratio17.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FOR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FOR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FOR ($11.76) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($196.37)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FOR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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Future Growth

How is Forestar Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


-24.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FOR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-24.2% per year).

Earnings vs Market: FOR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-24.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: FOR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: FOR's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-0.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FOR's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.5% per year).


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FOR's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.7%).


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Past Performance

How has Forestar Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


31.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: FOR has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: FOR's current net profit margins (11.1%) are higher than last year (7.2%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: FOR's earnings have grown significantly by 31.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: FOR's earnings growth over the past year (90.1%) exceeds its 5-year average (31.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: FOR earnings growth over the past year (90.1%) exceeded the Real Estate industry 41.2%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: FOR's Return on Equity (15%) is considered low.


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Financial Health

How is Forestar Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

1/6

Financial Health Score 1/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: FOR's short term assets ($197.9M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($211.8M).

Long Term Liabilities: FOR's short term assets ($197.9M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($908.1M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: FOR's net debt to equity ratio (48.7%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: FOR's debt to equity ratio has increased from 19.3% to 61.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: FOR's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (3.9%).

Interest Coverage: FOR earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Forestar Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Forestar Group Dividend Yield vs Market
How does Forestar Group dividend yield compare to the market?
SegmentDividend Yield
Company (Forestar Group)n/a
Market Bottom 25% (US)1.6%
Market Top 25% (US)4.6%
Industry Average (Real Estate)2.7%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Forestar Group)0%

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate FOR's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate FOR's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if FOR's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if FOR's dividend payments have been increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as FOR has not reported any payouts.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.6yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Dan Bartok (66 yo)

4.75yrs

Tenure

US$2,263,124

Compensation

Mr. Daniel C. Bartok, also known as Dan, has been Chief Executive Officer of Forestar Group Inc since December 29, 2017. Mr. Bartok joins Forestar Group Inc with more than 35 years of experience in real es...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Dan Bartok's Compensation vs Forestar Group Earnings
How has Dan Bartok's remuneration changed compared to Forestar Group's earnings?
DateTotal Comp.SalaryCompany Earnings
Jun 30 2022n/an/a

US$172m

Mar 31 2022n/an/a

US$148m

Dec 31 2021n/an/a

US$129m

Sep 30 2021US$2mUS$350k

US$110m

Jun 30 2021n/an/a

US$91m

Mar 31 2021n/an/a

US$85m

Dec 31 2020n/an/a

US$66m

Sep 30 2020US$2mUS$350k

US$61m

Jun 30 2020n/an/a

US$49m

Mar 31 2020n/an/a

US$46m

Dec 31 2019n/an/a

US$47m

Sep 30 2019US$1mUS$300k

US$33m

Jun 30 2019n/an/a

US$75m

Mar 31 2019n/an/a

US$78m

Dec 31 2018n/an/a

US$72m

Sep 30 2018US$962kUS$225k

US$44m

Jun 30 2018n/an/a

-US$3m

Mar 31 2018n/an/a

-US$16m

Dec 31 2017US$1kUS$1k

US$4m

Compensation vs Market: Dan's total compensation ($USD2.26M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.92M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Dan's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: FOR's management team is considered experienced (3.6 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: FOR's board of directors are considered experienced (4.9 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: FOR insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

NYSE:FOR Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
DateValueNameEntityRoleSharesMax Price
22 Sep 22BuyUS$23,000Daniel BartokIndividual2,000US$11.50
30 Aug 22BuyUS$22,914Daniel BartokIndividual1,800US$12.73
29 Aug 22BuyUS$44,775James AllenIndividual3,500US$12.90
27 Jul 22BuyUS$20,250Daniel BartokIndividual1,500US$13.50
23 Feb 22BuyUS$18,000Daniel BartokIndividual1,000US$18.00
31 Jan 22BuyUS$39,525Daniel BartokIndividual2,000US$19.76
20 Dec 21SellUS$40,480G. RinglerIndividual2,000US$20.24
16 Dec 21SellUS$53,900Lisa JamiesonIndividual2,500US$21.56

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of FOR?
Owner TypeNumber of SharesOwnership Percentage
Individual Insiders185,0120.4%
General Public686,3411.4%
Hedge Funds4,681,8739.4%
Institutions12,755,19125.6%
Public Companies31,451,06363.2%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 93.22% of the company
OwnershipNameSharesCurrent ValueChange %Portfolio %
63.21%
D.R. Horton, Inc.
31,451,063$369.9m0%no data
9.41%
Long Pond Capital, LP
4,681,873$55.1m0%2.93%
5.37%
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
2,673,453$31.4m4.13%no data
3.13%
BlackRock, Inc.
1,555,701$18.3m-0.06%no data
2.17%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
1,079,250$12.7m13.92%no data
1.22%
Carlson Capital, L.P.
608,531$7.2m19.04%0.54%
1.11%
Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC
551,710$6.5m22.59%no data
0.95%
Heartland Advisors, Inc.
470,250$5.5m5.71%0.39%
0.77%
Morgan Stanley, Investment Banking and Brokerage Investments
385,461$4.5m13.55%no data
0.74%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
370,078$4.4m-4.37%no data
0.68%
State Street Global Advisors, Inc.
338,334$4.0m2.56%no data
0.54%
Assenagon Asset Management S.A.
268,700$3.2m18.27%0.01%
0.48%
Maltese Capital Management, LLC
239,400$2.8m0%0.6%
0.4%
Northern Trust Global Investments
201,196$2.4m5.82%no data
0.4%
Premier Fund Managers Limited
200,609$2.4m-29.42%0.03%
0.35%
Jacobs Levy Equity Management Inc
176,627$2.1m11.85%0.02%
0.31%
Dimension Capital Management LLC
155,079$1.8m0%0.44%
0.3%
Los Angeles Capital Management LLC
149,849$1.8m31.18%0.01%
0.29%
UBS Asset Management
145,577$1.7m-4.24%no data
0.26%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
128,493$1.5m-0.51%no data
0.25%
Real Estate Management Services Group, LLC
125,902$1.5m0%1.38%
0.23%
PGIM, Inc.
114,592$1.3m-1.38%no data
0.21%
BNY Mellon Asset Management
106,953$1.3m2.74%no data
0.21%
AQR Capital Management, LLC
105,331$1.2m-1.67%no data
0.21%
Zacks Investment Management, Inc.
102,496$1.2m19.46%0.02%

Company Information

Forestar Group Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Forestar Group Inc.
  • Ticker: FOR
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: NaN
  • Industry: Real Estate Development
  • Sector: Real Estate
  • Implied Market Cap: US$585.171m
  • Shares outstanding: 49.76m
  • Website: https://www.forestar.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Forestar Group Inc.
  • 2221 East Lamar Boulevard
  • Suite 790
  • Arlington
  • Texas
  • 76006
  • United States


Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
FORNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDDec 2007
4F31DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURDec 2007

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/09/28 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/09/28 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/09/30


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.