NYSE:FOR

Stock Analysis Report

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Executive Summary

Forestar Group Inc. operates as a residential lot development company in the United States. More Details


Snowflake Analysis

Reasonable growth potential and fair value.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Forestar Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: FOR is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: FOR's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

2.5%

FOR

-0.6%

US Real Estate

-0.4%

US Market


1 Year Return

-1.3%

FOR

4.5%

US Real Estate

19.5%

US Market

Return vs Industry: FOR underperformed the US Real Estate industry which returned 4.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: FOR underperformed the US Market which returned 19.6% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

FORIndustryMarket
7 Day2.5%-0.6%-0.4%
30 Day5.4%0.4%2.3%
90 Day20.2%9.5%12.7%
1 Year-1.3%-1.3%7.3%4.5%22.3%19.5%
3 Year0%0%12.8%4.8%44.4%34.8%
5 Year148.9%148.9%44.3%27.0%128.7%103.3%

Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Forestar Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Forestar Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

17.3x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate FOR's fair value to establish if it is undervalued.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate FOR's fair value to establish if it is undervalued.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: FOR is good value based on its PE Ratio (17.3x) compared to the US Real Estate industry average (37.5x).

PE vs Market: FOR is good value based on its PE Ratio (17.3x) compared to the US market (21x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: FOR is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.6x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: FOR's PB Ratio (1.2x) is in line with the US Real Estate industry average.


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Forestar Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

27.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FOR's forecast earnings growth (27.6% per year) is above the savings rate (2%).

Earnings vs Market: FOR's earnings (27.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (21.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: FOR's revenue (17.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (10.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FOR's revenue (17.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FOR's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (8.9%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Forestar Group performed over the past 5 years?

29.3%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: FOR has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: FOR's current net profit margins (6.5%) are lower than last year (7.7%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: FOR has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 29.3% per year.

Accelerating Growth: FOR's earnings growth over the past year (83.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (29.3% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: FOR earnings growth over the past year (83.4%) exceeded the Real Estate industry -7.9%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: FOR's Return on Equity (7.1%) is considered low.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Forestar Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: FOR's short term assets ($416.2M) exceed its short term liabilities ($99.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: FOR's short term assets ($416.2M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($768.9M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: FOR's debt to equity ratio (73.5%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: FOR's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 85.4% to 73.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: FOR's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: FOR earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.


Balance Sheet


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Forestar Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate FOR's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate FOR's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if FOR's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if FOR's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of FOR's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.3yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Dan Bartok (64 yo)

3.08yrs

Tenure

US$1,585,588

Compensation

Mr. Daniel C. Bartok, also known as Dan, has been Chief Executive Officer of Forestar Group Inc since December 29, 2017. Mr. Bartok joins Forestar Group Inc with more than 35 years of experience in real es...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Dan's total compensation ($USD1.59M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.41M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Dan's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Donald Tomnitz
Executive Chairman of the Board3.25yrsUS$1.75m0.067%
$ 707.4k
Daniel Bartok
Chief Executive Officer3.08yrsUS$1.59m0.043%
$ 453.3k
James Allen
CFO, Treasurer & Principal Accounting Officer0.83yrUS$570.38k0.011%
$ 113.9k
Matthew Stark
Senior VP & General Counselno datano datano data
Michael Quinley
President of East Region3.25yrsUS$657.00kno data
Tom Burleson
President of West Region18yrsno datano data
Mary Cowser
Senior Vice President of Real Estate Market Research & Investment14yrsno datano data
Ashley Dagley
VP & Corporate Secretaryno datano datano data

3.3yrs

Average Tenure

62yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: FOR's management team is considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Donald Tomnitz
Executive Chairman of the Board3.25yrsUS$1.75m0.067%
$ 707.4k
Samuel Fuller
Independent Director3.25yrsUS$116.01k0.015%
$ 153.3k
Lisa Jamieson
Independent Director1.42yrsUS$226.31k0.0042%
$ 43.8k
G. Ringler
Independent Director3.25yrsUS$116.01k0.0062%
$ 65.7k
Donald Spitzer
Independent Director3.25yrsUS$116.01k0.015%
$ 153.3k

3.3yrs

Average Tenure

72yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: FOR's board of directors are considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: FOR insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Forestar Group Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Forestar Group Inc.
  • Ticker: FOR
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1955
  • Industry: Real Estate Development
  • Sector: Real Estate
  • Market Cap: US$1.053b
  • Shares outstanding: 48.07m
  • Website: https://www.forestar.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Forestar Group Inc.
  • 2221 East Lamar Boulevard
  • Suite 790
  • Arlington
  • Texas
  • 76006
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
FORNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDDec 2007
4F31DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURDec 2007

Biography

Forestar Group Inc. operates as a residential lot development company in the United States. It engages in the acquisition, entitlement, and development of infrastructure for single-family residential commu...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/01/18 23:03
End of Day Share Price2021/01/15 00:00
Earnings2020/09/30
Annual Earnings2020/09/30


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.