Alexander’s (ALX): Valuation Check After $175 Million Rego Park II Refinancing Extends Debt to 2030

Alexander's (ALX) just locked in a fresh $175 million refinancing on its Rego Park II shopping center in Queens, extending the loan out to December 2030 and easing near term refinancing pressure.

See our latest analysis for Alexander's.

That refinancing headline lands against a backdrop where the share price has climbed to $219.31, with an 11.77% year to date share price return and a solid 18.44% one year total shareholder return, suggesting momentum is cautiously rebuilding after recent 90 day weakness.

If this refinancing has you thinking about positioning for the next leg in real estate and income names, it could also be worth scanning pharma stocks with solid dividends for other yield focused opportunities.

Yet with earnings growth under pressure and shares now trading above the average analyst target, investors face a key question: does Alexander's still offer hidden value here, or is the market already pricing in its future growth?

Price-to-Earnings of 30.5x: Is it justified?

Alexander's last closed at $219.31, and its current price-to-earnings ratio of 30.5x screens as expensive against both peers and its own fundamentals.

The price-to-earnings ratio compares the current share price with the company’s earnings per share. It effectively shows how much investors are paying for each dollar of profit. For a mature, income focused Retail REIT with declining earnings and modest revenue growth, such a rich multiple suggests investors are pricing in more stability and growth than the business has recently delivered.

Compared with the broader US Retail REITs industry average P/E of 27.1x and a peer average of just 19.1x, Alexander's valuation stands at a clear premium. It also sits above the estimated fair P/E ratio of 26.8x. This is a level the market could gravitate toward if sentiment or fundamentals cool from here.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Alexander's

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 30.5x (OVERVALUED)

However, persistent net income declines and shares trading 18 percent above the consensus target could swiftly unwind sentiment if fundamentals or financing conditions deteriorate.

Find out about the key risks to this Alexander's narrative.

Another View: Our DCF Signals Deeper Downside

While the current price-to-earnings ratio paints Alexander's as expensive, our DCF model goes further and suggests the shares are significantly overvalued versus an estimated fair value of roughly $147. With such a wide gap, could future returns struggle to justify today’s optimism?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Alexander's for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 906 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Alexander's Narrative

If you see things differently or would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized take in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Alexander's research is our analysis highlighting 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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