Will Watersound Town Center’s Leasing Surge Reshape St. Joe’s (JOE) Commercial Growth Narrative?

• The St. Joe Company recently announced a series of new national and regional retail, dining, and office tenant leases at its Watersound Town Center in Inlet Beach, FL, bringing the center to 98% leased with anticipated openings extending into mid-2026.
• This leasing momentum underscores strong demand from both businesses and consumers in the rapidly expanding Watersound Origins community, where residential growth continues to bolster commercial opportunities.
• We'll look at how the near-full leasing of Watersound Town Center may affect St. Joe's overall investment appeal and growth outlook.

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What Is St. Joe's Investment Narrative?

For investors considering The St. Joe Company, the underlying story centers on a belief in Florida’s ongoing population growth and the company’s unique ability to capture value from that trend by developing vibrant, desirable mixed-use communities. The recent surge in leasing at Watersound Town Center, now nearly fully occupied and featuring reputable national and regional tenants, directly addresses a key short-term catalyst: sustained commercial demand supporting residential expansion. While financials preceding this announcement already showed robust revenue and earnings momentum, the latest leasing update could further strengthen confidence in near-term cash flows and utility of retail assets, partially offsetting concerns around execution risk and high debt. That said, ongoing risks, such as economic downturns, community saturation, or overleveraging, remain important, and investors should watch how St. Joe manages further expansion amid rapid development in the region.

However, with growth comes the risk of overextending in a cyclical real estate market.

Despite retreating, St. Joe's shares might still be trading 26% above their fair value. Discover the potential downside here.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members each priced St. Joe at US$79.48, suggesting consensus but little diversity in expectations. Yet, as the recent leasing momentum shows, new commercial wins can shift the outlook, especially when future growth or debt levels remain key open questions for performance. Explore several alternative viewpoints, as opinions among market participants often vary.

Explore another fair value estimate on St. Joe - why the stock might be worth as much as 36% more than the current price!

Build Your Own St. Joe Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your St. Joe research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free St. Joe research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate St. Joe's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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