Novartis AG

OTCPK:NVSE.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$206.3b

Novartis Valuation

Is NVSE.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NVSE.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NVSE.F ($105) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($274.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NVSE.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NVSE.F?

Key metric: As NVSE.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NVSE.F. This is calculated by dividing NVSE.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NVSE.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.5x
EarningsUS$11.76b
Market CapUS$206.30b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NVSE.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NVSE.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.7x
MRK Merck
20.1x15.6%US$244.2b
JNJ Johnson & Johnson
24.9x10.6%US$368.4b
PFE Pfizer
33.3x16.8%US$142.2b
ZTS Zoetis
32.6x9.9%US$79.2b
NVSE.F Novartis
17.5x7.0%US$182.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NVSE.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.5x) compared to the peer average (27.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NVSE.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Pharmaceuticals Industry?

11 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
OGN Organon
2.9x-7.1%US$3.76b
NDOI Endo
0.6xn/aUS$1.91b
PROC Procaps Group
1.1xn/aUS$59.68m
KPRX Kiora Pharmaceuticals
1.7x-40.4%US$9.59m
NVSE.F 17.5xIndustry Avg. 19.9xNo. of Companies11PE01224364860+
11 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NVSE.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.5x) compared to the US Pharmaceuticals industry average (19.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NVSE.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NVSE.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.5x
Fair PE Ratio33.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NVSE.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NVSE.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$105.00
US$116.80
+11.2%
9.5%US$137.06US$97.90n/a19
Nov ’25US$106.16
US$117.06
+10.3%
9.4%US$137.06US$97.90n/a19
Oct ’25US$110.33
US$117.01
+6.1%
9.1%US$135.24US$100.63n/a19
Sep ’25US$116.05
US$116.18
+0.1%
9.8%US$135.24US$95.66n/a20
Aug ’25US$111.16
US$115.26
+3.7%
10.3%US$135.24US$95.66n/a20
Jul ’25US$104.00
US$110.20
+6.0%
11.3%US$131.71US$84.21n/a20
Jun ’25US$97.97
US$108.89
+11.1%
10.8%US$130.01US$84.21n/a19
May ’25US$97.00
US$107.68
+11.0%
11.2%US$129.59US$81.17n/a18
Apr ’25US$96.51
US$108.29
+12.2%
11.5%US$128.13US$82.34n/a18
Mar ’25US$102.00
US$109.35
+7.2%
11.3%US$128.13US$83.55n/a18
Feb ’25US$105.00
US$110.18
+4.9%
11.1%US$128.13US$86.94n/a18
Jan ’25US$100.00
US$106.23
+6.2%
10.2%US$124.83US$86.38n/a18
Dec ’24US$97.95
US$105.47
+7.7%
10.7%US$124.83US$83.80n/a18
Nov ’24US$93.25
US$104.79
+12.4%
10.5%US$122.92US$83.08US$106.1618
Oct ’24US$102.50
US$111.88
+9.2%
10.9%US$129.15US$89.43US$110.3318
Sep ’24US$99.00
US$114.14
+15.3%
9.8%US$129.15US$92.37US$116.0518
Aug ’24US$106.05
US$114.52
+8.0%
10.1%US$129.15US$92.37US$111.1617
Jul ’24US$95.53
US$109.26
+14.4%
9.8%US$123.59US$89.19US$104.0016
Jun ’24US$97.19
US$108.09
+11.2%
9.3%US$123.50US$89.19US$97.9719
May ’24US$102.20
US$106.35
+4.1%
9.5%US$121.27US$89.97US$97.0019
Apr ’24US$91.20
US$99.32
+8.9%
10.5%US$117.39US$86.62US$96.5120
Mar ’24US$82.56
US$98.07
+18.8%
10.6%US$114.65US$74.75US$102.0021
Feb ’24US$87.57
US$97.24
+11.0%
10.1%US$113.80US$76.56US$105.0021
Jan ’24US$91.85
US$93.46
+1.7%
11.4%US$111.61US$75.21US$100.0021
Dec ’23US$89.57
US$90.75
+1.3%
10.7%US$107.24US$73.91US$97.9521
Nov ’23US$79.20
US$89.59
+13.1%
11.0%US$107.24US$69.98US$93.2521

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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