Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited

NYSE:TAK Stock Report

Market Cap: US$53.0b

Takeda Pharmaceutical Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Takeda Pharmaceutical is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 38.6% and 2.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 38.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 4.9% in 3 years.

Key information

38.6%

Earnings growth rate

38.87%

EPS growth rate

Pharmaceuticals earnings growth14.4%
Revenue growth rate2.3%
Future return on equity4.86%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated30 Jun 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Jun 11

Takeda Pharmaceutical: The Downside Was Forecastable

Summary Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited remains a Hold with a $12/share price target, reflecting skepticism about forward pipeline success and valuation methodology. TAK's growth is viewed as "hollow," with core EPS adjustments masking a true P/E above 41x—far above peer multiples and not justified by fundamentals. Buybacks and high dividends are seen as risky amid heavy debt, upcoming patent cliffs, and speculative late-stage pipeline prospects. Despite operational quality and a solid dividend, TAK's historical underperformance, structural headwinds, and aggressive adjustments limit risk-adjusted upside. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 13

Takeda: Buy Into Future Drug Pipeline Potential, Despite Recent Profit Headwinds

Summary Japan-based Takeda Pharmaceutical, which has its ADR listed on the NYSE, gets a buy rating today, agreeing with the analyst consensus. Besides a diverse drug portfolio across multiple segments, they have a robust drug discovery pipeline to meet future clinical demand. The firm has been a proven cash flow generator, with an above-average dividend yield above +4%, and modest leverage risk. Some challenges are the stock appears overvalued on forward earnings multiple, and could use improvement to its profit margin compared to big pharma peers. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 31

Strong Q3, Improved Guidance Are Signs Takeda Pharmaceutical May Be Undervalued

Summary Takeda Pharmaceutical offers attractive dividends and has a low price/book ratio, making it appealing despite recent price drops and US policy uncertainties. The company reported strong Q3 earnings, raised full-year FY2025 guidance, and announced a new CEO and a significant share repurchase program. Revenue and operating income exceeded expectations due to a shortage of generic Vyvanse, favorable exchange rates, and reduced amortization of intangible assets. US policy and tariffs pose risks, but Takeda's strong dividend yield and strategic moves make it a worthwhile investment at current prices. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 07

Takeda Pharmaceutical: Dividend Yield Is High But Hides Pitfalls Especially For US Investors

Summary Takeda Pharmaceutical offers a high dividend yield, but its sustainability is questionable due to exchange rate risks and a payout ratio often exceeding 100%. Despite growth in segments like Livtencity and Qdenga, high debt and weak currency make Takeda a risky dividend investment. The devaluation of the yen against the dollar significantly impacts revenue growth and dividend stability for U.S. investors. Key drugs like Entyvio face patent expiration, while Vyvanse has already lost U.S. exclusivity, posing risks to future revenue streams. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 07

Takeda Pharmaceuticals: An Interesting Option For Income Investors

Summary Takeda Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: TAK) offers a strong cash position and above-average dividend yield, making it an attractive option for income investors seeking international pharma exposure. The company's price/book value of 0.92 suggests it may be undervalued, presenting a potential long-term investment opportunity at a modest price. Risks include foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations and global pressure to reduce drug prices, which could impact profitability and margins. Despite intense competition, Takeda's steady revenue growth and strong dividend yield of 4.24% make it a solid addition to a diversified income portfolio. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jun 06

Takeda: Strong Growth Catalysts And Maturing Pipeline Continue To Limit Downside Risk

Summary Takeda Pharmaceutical Company's shares have not been able to overcome overhead resistance and are likely to test their October 2022 lows. TAK stock has declined by over 17% since our previous commentary, while the S&P 500 has rallied over 36%. Takeda's profitability trends show a decrease in core EBIT, but management remains optimistic about the company's pipeline & growth and launch products. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 03

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company: Attractive Stock But Needs To Grow Net Profits

Summary Takeda Pharmaceutical reports 4.6% YoY revenue growth in Q3 2023, driven by positive forex moves and pipeline advancements. Takeda receives FDA approval for novel drugs EOHILIA, FRUZAQLA, and ADZYNMA, expanding its commercialized product portfolio. Takeda focuses on R&D and digital transformation, including the use of AI solutions, to enhance innovation and treatment options for patients. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:TAK - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (JPY Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
3/31/20294,813,901354,748715,8401,063,54913
3/31/20284,700,742309,302721,8061,038,92315
3/31/20274,630,280183,895780,3631,064,99915
3/31/20264,505,720-152,390630,4981,041,431N/A
12/31/20254,464,578112,926748,6941,189,062N/A
9/30/20254,417,00433,075922,2981,199,566N/A
6/30/20254,480,246136,923817,1901,102,301N/A
3/31/20254,581,551107,928709,3411,057,182N/A
12/31/20244,579,021208,065794,1681,113,611N/A
9/30/20244,546,083289,996536,390876,306N/A
6/30/20244,413,134149,920444,957794,248N/A
3/31/20244,263,762144,067235,614716,344N/A
12/31/20234,169,049178,219-129,035731,449N/A
9/30/20234,154,414191,626129,243963,227N/A
6/30/20234,113,631301,398180,765985,315N/A
3/31/20234,027,478317,017343,467977,156N/A
12/31/20223,944,611274,525817,6151,059,047N/A
9/30/20223,749,354213,167789,0891,028,328N/A
6/30/20223,591,868197,389798,3671,040,488N/A
3/31/20223,569,006230,059937,0681,123,105N/A
12/31/20213,465,991438,515902,3091,148,481N/A
9/30/20213,401,450473,105777,5721,018,931N/A
6/30/20213,345,565431,178793,6451,031,928N/A
3/31/20213,197,812376,005774,4631,010,931N/A
12/31/20203,199,240180,631608,015795,408N/A
9/30/20203,221,80456,051498,511720,676N/A
6/30/20203,243,917119,743479,618694,824N/A
3/31/20203,291,18844,241452,042669,752N/A
12/31/20193,236,69713,275N/A601,798N/A
9/30/20192,876,78283,262N/A551,732N/A
6/30/20192,496,51163,959N/A408,797N/A
3/31/20192,097,224135,192N/A328,479N/A
12/31/20181,780,976110,414N/A336,742N/A
9/30/20181,769,726140,738N/A328,658N/A
6/30/20181,772,125120,339N/A343,761N/A
3/31/20181,770,531186,886N/A377,854N/A
12/31/20171,785,773190,172N/A376,566N/A
9/30/20171,762,667163,457N/A316,619N/A
6/30/20171,746,286160,202N/A285,157N/A
3/31/20171,732,051114,940N/A261,363N/A
12/31/20161,729,967132,194N/A-8,176N/A
9/30/20161,754,130150,081N/A42,293N/A
6/30/20161,795,088155,110N/A57,618N/A
3/31/20161,807,37880,166N/A25,491N/A
12/31/20151,831,096-111,874N/A203,553N/A
9/30/20151,830,521-152,827N/A192,836N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TAK is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: TAK is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: TAK is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TAK's revenue (2.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TAK's revenue (2.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TAK's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (4.9%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/07/08 23:07
End of Day Share Price 2026/07/08 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2026/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is covered by 27 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Atsushi SekiBarclays
Miki SogiBernstein
Koichi MameganoBofA Global Research