Pfizer (PFE) Valuation Check as Padcev–Keytruda Success and Obesity Deals Recast Its Post‑COVID Growth Story

Pfizer (PFE) just gave investors a fresh catalyst by unveiling strong Phase 3 data for Padcev plus Keytruda in muscle invasive bladder cancer, a meaningful development as the company works to reshape its post COVID growth profile.

See our latest analysis for Pfizer.

The latest Padcev plus Keytruda data lands just as sentiment is tentatively improving, with a roughly 4.5% 90 day share price return contrasting with a weak year to date share price return and mixed multi year total shareholder returns. This suggests early but fragile momentum as investors reassess Pfizer’s pipeline upsides against patent and COVID reset risks.

If this oncology update has you rethinking the sector, it could be worth exploring other large cap healthcare stocks that may be quietly reshaping their growth stories too.

With shares still about 40% below their pre COVID peak yet trading only modestly under analyst targets, are investors overlooking a rebuilding pharma giant at a clear discount, or already assigning full credit for Pfizer’s next growth chapter?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 13.3% Undervalued

With Pfizer last closing at $25.21 against a narrative fair value near $29.08, the story leans toward upside if its profit mix keeps shifting higher.

Strategic business development and licensing (such as the 3SBio bispecific antibody deal and ongoing portfolio additions in high value areas like oncology, immunology, and obesity) support revenue diversification and lifecycle management, mitigating the impact of patent expirations and increasing net margins via synergies and optimized product mix. Sustained shift of the portfolio toward high value biologics, innovative vaccines, and personalized therapies (including next generation mRNA platforms and first in class immunotherapies) enables pricing power and supports premium net margins, even as competitive and regulatory pressures increase for low margin legacy drugs.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how shrinking topline expectations can still coexist with richer margins and a higher future earnings multiple than today, while staying below sector levels, and still justify upside?

Result: Fair Value of $29.08 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent regulatory pressure on drug pricing and looming patent expirations for key therapies could still derail margin expansion and the re-rating story.

Find out about the key risks to this Pfizer narrative.

Build Your Own Pfizer Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own inputs, you can build a personal take in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Pfizer research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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