Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Exagen Inc.'s (NASDAQ:XGN) Annual Report

Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) just released its latest yearly results and things are looking bullish. Exagen beat expectations with revenues of US$53m arriving 4.4% ahead of forecasts. The company also reported a statutory loss of US$1.34, 9.1% smaller than was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Exagen after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Exagen

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Exagen are now predicting revenues of US$54.2m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 3.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$1.36. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$54.1m and losses of US$1.36 per share in 2024.

As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$5.50, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with expectations despite ongoing losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Exagen analyst has a price target of US$7.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$5.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Exagen shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Exagen's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 7.5% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Exagen.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$5.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Exagen analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Exagen , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.