Revenues Not Telling The Story For Vaxart, Inc. (NASDAQ:VXRT) After Shares Rise 47%

Vaxart, Inc. (NASDAQ:VXRT) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 47% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 46%.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Vaxart's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 11.4x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Biotechs industry in the United States, where the median P/S ratio is around 11x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

View our latest analysis for Vaxart

How Vaxart Has Been Performing

Vaxart could be doing better as it's been growing revenue less than most other companies lately. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is moderate because investors think this lacklustre revenue performance will turn around. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Keen to find out how analysts think Vaxart's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

Vaxart's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company's revenues underwent some rampant growth over the last 12 months. The latest three year period has also seen an incredible overall rise in revenue, aided by its incredible short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 91% per year as estimated by the four analysts watching the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 115% growth each year, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

With this information, we find it interesting that Vaxart is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Bottom Line On Vaxart's P/S

Vaxart's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

When you consider that Vaxart's revenue growth estimates are fairly muted compared to the broader industry, it's easy to see why we consider it unexpected to be trading at its current P/S ratio. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Vaxart you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Vaxart's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.