Twist Bioscience Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

One of the biggest stories of last week was how Twist Bioscience Corporation (NASDAQ:TWST) shares plunged 25% in the week since its latest quarterly results, closing yesterday at US$25.90. Although revenues of US$96m were in line with analyst expectations, Twist Bioscience surprised on the earnings front, with an unexpected (statutory) profit of US$0.33 per share a nice improvement on the losses that the analystsforecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the latest results, Twist Bioscience's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$437.9m in 2026. This would be a sizeable 21% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$1.41. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$442.0m and losses of US$1.44 per share in 2026. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

See our latest analysis for Twist Bioscience

The consensus price target fell 9.3% to US$43.92despite the forecast for smaller losses next year. It looks like the ongoing lack of profitability is starting to weigh on valuations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Twist Bioscience analyst has a price target of US$62.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$25.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Twist Bioscience's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 16% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 27% over the past five years. Compare this to the 556 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Twist Bioscience's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Twist Bioscience's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Twist Bioscience. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Twist Bioscience going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Twist Bioscience has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.