Tilray (NasdaqGS:TLRY): Assessing Valuation After Recent 7% Share Price Rise

Tilray Brands (NasdaqGS:TLRY) stock has caught some renewed attention over the past week, climbing roughly 7%. While there is not a single headline driving the move, it is sparking conversation about whether the stock might finally be bottoming out after a long decline.

See our latest analysis for Tilray Brands.

Tilray’s recent 7% jump comes after a tough stretch for shareholders, with momentum still subdued overall. The share price is down nearly 30% so far this year, and its one-year total shareholder return is negative 25%. While the latest bump hints at changing sentiment, the long-term picture shows investors remain cautious as the company works through its challenges.

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Given the steep share price decline and muted growth outlook, the key question for investors is whether Tilray is undervalued relative to its prospects, or if the market has already factored in any future rebound potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 42% Undervalued

With Tilray Brands’ fair value pegged at $1.78, the last close of $1.03 leaves a significant upside in the eyes of the most popular narrative. This estimate stands well above current trading levels, raising fresh debate about what could power future gains for investors.

Tilray's international cannabis business is achieving rapid organic growth, with European cannabis revenue up 112% YoY (excluding Australia) and significant share gains in Germany due to regulatory tailwinds, broader medical adoption, and expanding legalization, supporting a long runway for top-line revenue acceleration as global cannabis markets open.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what makes analysts so bullish? The real story here is bold expansion bets and game-changing regulation, along with surprising assumptions about how fast margins and overseas sales could grow. Want to know the financial leap this narrative is projecting? It’s all buried in the details, with ambitious targets for growth, profitability, and a multiple that is hard to match in the sector.

Result: Fair Value of $1.78 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent regulatory delays in the U.S. and heavy competition could undercut Tilray’s growth outlook and dampen the optimistic valuation case.

Find out about the key risks to this Tilray Brands narrative.

Build Your Own Tilray Brands Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers for yourself, you can put together your own narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Tilray Brands research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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