Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN): Evaluating Valuation After Strong Q3 Growth, Margin Pressure, and Updated 2025 Outlook

Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) saw a jump in third-quarter sales, fueled by the momentum of Qelbree, GOCOVRI, and the launch of ONAPGO. The company boosted its full-year 2025 revenue outlook following these results.

See our latest analysis for Supernus Pharmaceuticals.

Despite impressive third-quarter results and a boosted product pipeline, Supernus Pharmaceuticals shares experienced a steep pullback after the recent earnings announcement. The 7-day share price return dropped 16.5%, reflecting investor caution around softer margin guidance and supply constraints. However, the year-to-date share price return of 26.3% and a strong 25.7% total shareholder return over the last year highlight that long-term momentum is still intact.

If you’re curious to see how other innovative pharma names are faring this quarter, consider exploring See the full list for free..

With shares now trading almost 29% below consensus price targets despite solid growth in new products, investors are left to wonder if Supernus is an undervalued opportunity or if the market has already priced in its future gains.

Most Popular Narrative: 22.4% Undervalued

Compared to its last close of $46.02, the most widely followed narrative places Supernus Pharmaceuticals’ fair value at $59.33 per share. This sizable gap highlights a bullish stance from analysts despite recent market volatility.

Growth driven by expanding CNS patient pool, innovative product launches, and pipeline advancements supports higher revenue, margin expansion, and robust market positioning. A strong balance sheet and targeted acquisitions enable portfolio diversification, providing flexibility for inorganic growth and increased long-term shareholder value.

Read the complete narrative.

Ready to uncover what’s fueling this premium valuation call? The full narrative reveals unique revenue and profit assumptions most investors haven’t seen. Can growth truly justify this future price? Find out what ambitious targets drive the calculations behind this fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $59.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, continued pressure on drug pricing and reliance on a limited product lineup could threaten Supernus’s growth momentum and challenge its positive valuation outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Supernus Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Build Your Own Supernus Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you want to challenge these assumptions or dig into the numbers yourself, you can easily craft your own Supernus Pharmaceuticals narrative in just a few minutes, and Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Supernus Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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