Stock Analysis

Natera, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NTRA) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 20% Below Its Share Price

Published
NasdaqGS:NTRA

Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for Natera is US$101 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of US$127 suggests Natera is potentially 26% overvalued
  • Our fair value estimate is 22% lower than Natera's analyst price target of US$130

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Natera, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTRA) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Natera

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$36.4m US$176.8m US$381.2m US$445.3m US$493.0m US$533.7m US$568.6m US$598.8m US$625.6m US$649.9m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x4 Analyst x4 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Est @ 10.72% Est @ 8.25% Est @ 6.53% Est @ 5.32% Est @ 4.47% Est @ 3.88%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.3% US$34.2 US$156 US$317 US$349 US$363 US$370 US$370 US$367 US$361 US$352

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$3.0b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$650m× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (6.3%– 2.5%) = US$17b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$17b÷ ( 1 + 6.3%)10= US$9.5b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$13b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$127, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

NasdaqGS:NTRA Discounted Cash Flow September 18th 2024

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Natera as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.925. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Natera

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by earnings.
Weakness
  • Expensive based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.
  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
  • Forecast to reduce losses next year.
  • Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value lower than the current share price? For Natera, we've put together three further factors you should explore:

  1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Natera that you should be aware of before investing here.
  2. Future Earnings: How does NTRA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Natera might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.