MannKind Corporation Just Missed EPS By 6.3%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.3% to US$5.34 in the week after its latest yearly results. Revenues of US$286m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$0.10, missing estimates by 6.3%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for MannKind

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from MannKind's six analysts is for revenues of US$311.3m in 2025. This would reflect a meaningful 9.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 87% to US$0.17. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$334.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.24 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.

The average price target climbed 8.1% to US$10.00despite the reduced earnings forecasts, suggesting that this earnings impact could be a positive for the stock, once it passes. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic MannKind analyst has a price target of US$12.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$9.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MannKind's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 9.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 36% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 20% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MannKind is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MannKind going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with MannKind (at least 2 which make us uncomfortable) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.