Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS): Assessing Valuation as Revenue Outlook Rises and Product Launches Accelerate

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) just delivered its third quarter results, revealing higher revenue and a smaller net loss than last year. The company also increased its full-year revenue outlook and plans to invest further in upcoming product launches.

See our latest analysis for Ionis Pharmaceuticals.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals has been building real momentum, with a 7.5% share price return over the past month and an eye-catching 114% gain year-to-date. The stock’s powerful rally aligns with a string of upbeat developments, including newly raised revenue forecasts and updates on its late-stage pipeline. This suggests investors are growing more optimistic about Ionis’ growth prospects. Over the past year, total shareholder return stands at 93%, far outpacing the broader biotech sector and underlining a long-term story of renewed confidence.

If Ionis’ recent run has sparked your curiosity, explore other innovative biotechs poised for breakthroughs with our curated selection. See the full list here: See the full list for free.

But with Ionis’ shares already up triple digits this year and revenue guidance now raised, investors face a classic question: is the stock still undervalued, or has the market already priced in all that future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 3.6% Undervalued

Ionis Pharmaceuticals’ most widely followed narrative values the stock slightly above its recent close, hinting at calculated optimism as the company accelerates late-stage launches. Let’s explore what’s powering this viewpoint.

The rapid revenue growth and positive launch trajectory for Tryngolza in familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS), along with the imminent launch of Donidalorsen for HAE and multiple late-stage pipeline assets reading out or launching by 2027, are set to drive sustained, stepwise increases in top-line revenue and operating leverage as Ionis transitions from R&D-heavy to commercial-stage.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s justifying this premium? Hint: it’s not just biotech hype. The narrative hinges on ambitious triple-digit growth projections and a future earnings multiple that rivals the market’s boldest bets. Curious what blockbuster assumptions underpin this fair value? Find out how forecasts for profitability, ramping revenue, and improved margins rewrite Ionis’ valuation playbook.

Result: Fair Value of $77.07 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Ionis still faces hurdles. Regulatory setbacks for new indications or price pressure on broader launches could potentially dampen future momentum.

Find out about the key risks to this Ionis Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Another View: Multiples Tell a Different Story

While many see Ionis as undervalued based on fair value projections, a look at its price-to-sales ratio offers a stark contrast. At 12.4x, Ionis trades much higher than the industry average of 11.3x, and well above the fair ratio of 4x. This significant premium means the market is already pricing in a lot of future optimism. Do the underlying fundamentals truly justify these expectations?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Ionis Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you think the prevailing analysis misses something or you want to dive into the numbers yourself, it only takes a few minutes to craft your own perspective. Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Ionis Pharmaceuticals.

Looking for More Smart Investment Moves?

Uncover fresh opportunities before the crowd moves in. Here are three powerful ways you can level up your portfolio right now using the Simply Wall Street Screener:

• Spot next-generation disruptors early by checking out these 27 AI penny stocks, which are set to transform industries with artificial intelligence breakthroughs and a surge in real-world adoption.
• Capitalize on overlooked bargains when you review these 841 undervalued stocks based on cash flows with strong financial foundations and room to run, backed by solid cash flow fundamentals.
• Put your money to work with reliable income by seeking out these 20 dividend stocks with yields > 3%, which consistently deliver yields above 3% and help cushion your returns in any market.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com